Home | About Author | Books | Articles | Video |
| Contact us | Latest News|New Release
Latest News


WHERE IS CHINA HEADED
                           
(Talk delivered at the India International Centre, New Delhi on July 21, 2009)

Where is China headed? And by extension, where is the world headed? Because China in today's world is such an important country that the direction that China takes is going to affect the world. A professor who was supposed to be here today and who was recently in China told me that generally speaking even the Chinese do not know where they are headed.


The subject is very vast and very complex. Nevertheless, I think there are some unmistakable trends, and I am going to focus on those trends that give an indication of the direction that China is likely to take. Eleven years ago, just after the meltdown of the East Asian Tiger economies, I had made a presentation "Dealing with China in the 21st Century. For the growth of China, I had taken three models using terms from astrophysics: The Steady State Expansion Model, The Dynamic Expansion Model, and The Implosion Model.
And you can see them here in the diagram. At the bottom, the ones on the right are both dark and ominous. They represent the Dynamic Expansion Model and the Implosion Model. I think we can definitely rule out the Implosion> Model, and between the Steady State Expansion and the Dynamic Expansion models, I believe, China is moving towards the latter, the Dynamic Expansion Model. And why both these models were shown in dark is because both connote violence, the implosion as well as the explosion when any country expands very fast, much too fast.


    The talk I gave on China last year where some of the ambassadors present today were also present was on this very date July 21, few weeks before the Beijing Olympics. And we thought at that time that should the Olympics in Beijing go well to the satisfaction of the people of China and the Chinese government, China may decide to show a different face. The Olympics have gone off very well, the professional competence, the medals tally, the way it was organized and even the blue skies over Beijing; maybe it was the last time that there would be blue skies over Beijing, dazzled the world. It was an amazing show of competence from that country.             However, after such success we again pose the rhetorical questions: "Will China become benign or is it likely to flex its muscles"? I believe it is going to be the latter case. Recall that just ten years ago, say in 1999, the US was undoubtedly the world's undisputed power. It took less than a decade for the uni-polar moment to fade. This has to be compared to China's trajectory from 1989; there was Tiananmen, and on to 1999 and 2009.



    Seeing the condition of the global economy, the West hopes that wealth, globalization and political integration will turn China into a gentle giant panda rather than a dragon. This I have taken from The Economist just about ten days ago. What fanciful thinking. Several millennia ago, Chanakya, writing in the Artha Sasthra had said, and I quote: "It is the nature of power to assert itself". (Unquote). Throughout recorded history, I couldn't find a single case where a powerful country didn't assert itself. It is not only applicable to countries; it is also applicable to individuals. China is now a very powerful country. It is in the nature of such countries to assert themselves. This has been what all the great powers in the world have done so far.


    I have divided my talk into main headings that include:  'Where is China Headed?' and more importantly how is it affecting the world or likely global outcomes, followed by India juxtaposed to China.

So Where is China Headed? Unless democracy deficit shatters China's cohesion on the scale that Tiananmen might have done, if the Chinese had not ruthlessly suppressed the fledgling opposition, Beijing is undoubtedly headed toward super power status. While its amazing economic take-off in just over a decade might not be able to overcome indefinitely the fundamental contradiction of a market economy subserving the monolithic communist dispensation in a globalised world, however, for the time being it is serving its purpose admirably. Of course the unrest in Xinjiang would have come as a jolt to the Chinese government. China is an emerging super power. It is not yet there. Why then has the leadership chosen to prematurely disclose its hand? Recall the advice that Deng Xiaoping had given to his successors while handing over power to them. He had said: "for the next 25 years if the Americans look you in the eye, look down". Those 25 years takes us to 2015 or 2020. China is now not only able to look the Americans in the eye, sometimes it is the Americans who are looking down. In the post-Deng era, especially after Tiananmen, the Chinese leadership being monolithic generally tended to be cautious rather than being overly adventurous externally on a global scale. From Deng to Hu there appears to have been a sort of consensus that overt hegemony might be detrimental to world peace, in the process adversely impacting China's growth. This might still be the trajectory that China's leadership might prefer. However, there are indications that change in thinking might be taking place. Could it be that China started extending its power more vigorously linked to its financial power because of the perceived decline in US power after Iraq? China is still cautious about its image, especially in the West and with nations it wishes to target. It would tend to avoid the type of conflicts that accompanied the rise of great powers in the past. But it is not in the least bothered about India. Why? I will attempt to answer this when I discuss India and China in juxtaposition towards the end of my talk.      The not so subtle attempts at extending its power on the global arena might be due to the decline in US power and the accompanying economic crisis in the Western countries, not excluding Japan. It is best explained by 'plate tectonics'. Whenever two continental plates collide, there is a phenomenon known as subsidence. When one plate goes under, the other plate comes up. Something like that may be happening on the global scale when we talk of the two giant powers of today - USA and China. The subsidence is taking place to some extent, from the side of the US plate, in a manner of speaking and the rise is automatically that of China. It might have decided to grab the opportunity that had presented itself because windows of opportunity do not last indefinitely. Ex-president Jimmy Carter's NSA, Mr. Brzezinski has proposed a new G2 model where America and China get together to tackle the financial crisis, climate change and other major global problems. Today the USA seeks China's assistance on several global issues and as you know Mrs.Hillary Clinton who is here in India these days, charming the Indians or trying to charm them, had first gone to China to take a bow towards the Chinese leadership. Today, as I said, USA seeks China's assistance on several global issues, lately in Pakistan and Afghanistan as well. So having chosen to flex its muscles, what has China been doing that tends to alarm its neighbors and the world?     In the recent decades it has been noticed that China is able to rapidly achieve whatever it undertakes on a war footing. The latest example was the Beijing Olympics. It has started flexing its muscles by following a policy that includes demographic swamping internally (in the western extremities of the country) and financial swamping externally to meet its goals. Then there is the rapid militarization. I won't go into details of the mounting defense budget. The new Jin class submarines armed with long range missiles, the nuclear missiles, planning to go in for aircraft carriers, heightened naval ambitions and so on. These are very well documented. Add to these the determined push into the Indian Ocean, big talk of dividing the Pacific into spheres of influence, unilateral extension of its boundary in the South China Sea, offering help to Pakistan in case of conflict with India. As was the case with western colonizers and the Multi National Corporations after African countries became independent,. China's aid to Africa is exploitative, extractive and ecologically destructive. According to one estimate, up to a million farm laborers will be working in Africa in 2009. The figure might include Chinese labor involved with mining extraction. China's official media is on an India bashing spree. In one piece reproduced in India from the People's Daily, somebody wrote "India harbors a mix of awe, vexation, envy, and jealously in the face of its great neighbor".


    I will not elaborate on the String of Pearl's theory around the Indian
subcontinent. It too has been well documented. Then we know the important aspects relating to Pakistan, Gwadar Port in Baluchistan, the linking up with Kashgar, the great dream of Peter the Great coming into the warm waters of the Indian Ocean, the great game of yesteryear being revived. Well, Peter the Great's successors have had to retract but the Chinese are able to follow up on that and from Kashgar via the Karakoram Highway, in the Northern Areas and via Baluchistan on to Gwadar, the dream would stand realized were it not for the Americans sitting in Afghanistan. China has opposed India's UN move on Mohammed Masood Azar, the Jaish-e-Mohammad founder to put him on the terror list. Earlier it had intervened to keep the Jamat-ud-Dawa chief, Hafez Saeed off the UN terror list for a long time. Other instances - the opposition to the nuclear deal, the ADB loan to Arunachal and the UN Security Council seat for India. Beijing's desire to advance its military capabilities is fairly obvious. Going well past the 2004 China's white paper the 2009 white paper has graduated to strategic projection operations. The 2006 Quadrennial US Defense Review has warned that the pace and scope of China's military build up is already putting the regional military balance at risk.
     I come now to the important issue of Taiwan. I am choosing my words with care. It is my considered opinion that the contentious Taiwan question might well be settled soon for all practical purposes. They say "cometh the hour, cometh the man". I want to add , "cometh the event". Both sides have taken hold of this historic moment, since the 2008 advent of a friendlier Taiwan President. Let us examine the changes that are setting in very rapidly. I believe China might have to some extent de-alerted its military forces opposite Taiwan and that is the reason that on the offshore islands of Quemoy and Matsu, which received the greatest pounding from 1948 up to the 1960s, for the first time the Taiwanese have pulled back the bulk of the garrison from these islands and now Chinese visitors freely visit those islands. The Taiwanese President has reportedly announced, in a very bold step, that with effect from 2015 there will be no military conscription. The three transits have been worked out satisfactorily, direct flights, shipping and mail. Tourism is on the increase as also cross-border investments. Once China is able to incorporate Taiwan, peacefully as seems likely even if it takes many years, it might feel that it had reached its optimum size, which would be possible for China to digest without developing uncontrolled, indigestion or fissiparous tendencies. After the incorporation, whenever it takes place, China may go in for a strategic pause lasting several decades. It would coincide with the period that could be utilized by Russia, the EU and India, to put in place a non-confrontational system that acts as a barrier to further Chinese expansion into the surrounding countries and regions. That is one way of looking at it.

    The other way is that a modus vivendi has been worked out that puts a wholly different perspective on the Taiwan issue. The Americans are relaxed; this had become very contentious just about a year and a half ago. I am again stating it is my considered opinion that de facto Taiwan could soon stand incorporated with China. They are not going to carry out a military invasion. They are very comfortable with Taiwan as it is with the cross-border integration.
     So what are the implications of this for India and the world? I had already mentioned that the Chinese appear to have de-alerted the military forces opposite Taiwan. The latest equipment program for their warships states that excluding ships deployed opposite Taiwan, they are going to build all other warships with strategic air defense capabilities; they appear to have have excluded what is happening opposite Taiwan. And these forces, which represented the cutting edge capability of Chinese PLA, could be redeployed.

     The 450 or so missiles that are already there and the rate of deployment of about 20-30 missiles annually opposite Taiwan might be reduced. Some forces could move opposite Vietnam because the Chinese have not forgotten the lesson that the Vietnamese gave them in 1979. Just as the Chinese refuse to forget that lesson, they say India is forgetting the lesson that they administered to India in 1962. In fact one American diplomat who should have been here today and who was also with the Secretary of State told me that last week when she was in Beijing, and when they spoke of India, the Chinese had reportedly said "India was no problem as 1962 could be repeated anytime". A sizeable portion of these strategic forces and the missiles could well be put into Tibet and Xinjiang. There is already an asymmetry between India and China and this is going to go up much further.     Implications for the world: when Japan, Australia and other countries start realising that  in the not too distant future de facto Taiwan might be incorporated with China, then the entire security situation in the near Pacific and South China Sea changes and we might see something different coming up in the years ahead. Like I said, China is now no longer interested in invading Taiwan and Taiwan will not declare unilateral independence and it's the perfect modus vivendi.**

    Nevertheless, there are problems that China cannot wish away. Remember the June 4, 1989 crackdown on Tiananmen Square. How often can the communist party repeat massacres on this scale? You all remember Mao and his Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward. How many million lives were taken? How long can the genocide in Tibet and Xinjiang go on? This is an aspect that does worry the Chinese leadership.      The preoccupation with order and stability can become fairly obsessive leading to regressive policies after each phase of partial openness or liberalization. It is always in fits and starts; I can give several examples, internally within mainland China, in Tibet, in Xinjiang and in many other areas. Chinese leadership is clearly worried. For example, a Stability Preservation Office has been recently set up with a growing body of stability, preservation and information officers armed with a mandate to suppress elements that endanger stability. There are plans to establish a countrywide network that acts as the eyes and ears of the government 'to investigate early and resolve early'. It is a new force that has been set up.

     Political protests in Iran have again unnerved China's leaders, minimal coverage has been given to it internally. The exercise of smooth elections in Indonesia couldn't be lost on the Chinese people; again not much coverage compared to the rest of the world has been given to this in the Chinese press. For most countries in the world, France, India, UK, US - take any of them - when there is a crisis, it is a crisis for the 'country'. But for China the crises are different. The crisis is taken as a crisis for the Communist Party of China, which is for all practical purposes above the country. It is the country.
     There is the big dilemma for the Chinese Communist Party in the face of global recession linked to ecological degradation. As opposed to political parties' leaderships in democracies, the monolithic Chinese communist party has to keep the lid on. For them it is invariably all or nothing; there is no  middle ground for them. Also the fragile state of the economy further casts doubts on the ability of the largest borrower in the world (USA) to pay back its creditors, a point, which has been highlighted by the head of the Chinese central bank, the largest buyer of US treasuries. China may become the number one global economy in the next 20 years, according to Goldman Sach's O'Neil who coined the acronym of BRIC- Brazil, Russia, India and China.  Possibly, in that same period, BRIC countries as a group will carry a much larger economic weightage. Over 200 million young people within the country are today comfortable with the Chinese government and the Party. They do not wish to disturb the system politically; and those have prospered form the backbone of the middle class and this is the stability pillar for the Chinese leadership. Now can it repeat the process with the next 200 million people out of the billion or so, who are still left behind and what about the next 200 million after that and so on recurring? Because that will only be possible with double digit growth for the next decade or more or very high single digit growth rate. Can it be sustained? There is a national dimension, as well as a global dimension should a repeat of the pattern of the last 20 years be tried. As somebody said, "There is some sort of a cruel paradox there. On one hand it does seem like you want to say to China and India grow your economies so that you have a greater capacity to adapt to climate change and buy more western goods in the process. On the other hand it seems that such high growth will exacerbate the effects of climate change. It seems like the growth that creates adaptive capacity is racing against the growth that is aggravating what the adaptive capacity is needed to protect against".

    So I come to the ecological ramification of China's growth, for China as well as the world. I think this is the most important part of my talk. It is oft-mentioned that the West now looks to China to prop up its financial system and the Chinese economy to stimulate the global economy. Let us examine the implications. China has only 121 million hectares of arable land left from 130 million hectares. It has approximately 800 million  farmers. China faces severe problems posed by rampant desertification, polluted rivers and depleted ground water reserves. By 2020 China will have 130 million cars, by 2035 even more cars than the US. Taking into account that China obtains over 70% of its energy needs from coal and that it typically uses 6 to 7 times more energy to produce a dollar of output than the developed countries, the extent of the calamity that may engulf China, and by extension, the world, becomes clear. According to China's own official estimates, the effects of chronic pollution, large- scale damming and climate change have combined to  further exacerbate the situation, where 70% of the country's rivers and lakes are polluted to some degree, with 28% being too polluted even for irrigation or industrial use. A recent World Bank report estimated the health cost related to outright air pollution in urban China in 2003 to be between 157 billion to 520 billion Yuan, that is about 70 billion dollars, depending on the method of calculation used.  It means up to 3.8 percent of GDP. Faced with this critical situation, the Chinese government has little choice but to start taking serious measures to counteract and slow down environmental degradation even if it means putting brakes on economic growth. There are obvious lessons for India to draw as it pushes towards matching economic growth at the pace that the environment may not be able to sustain. To elaborate, one may take only an example or two by way of illustration. Should China and India adopt only few of the consumerist habits of the average US citizen, it would mean the adding of such numbers of automobiles as to create a global inferno. The accompanying increase in energy consumption and waste generation would reduce the two countries to becoming environmental graveyards and junkyards. To give another example, the Chinese people, right up to the 1980s were mainly poultry consumers. Many of them have changed their habits to become beef-eaters in the Western mould. It requires one ton of grain to raise a ton of poultry. Whereas a ton of beef requires 8 tons of wheat. Already grain shortages are anticipated in China in the coming decades. A Wall Street Journal article published in January 1999 (and things have become worse since then) said that by 2030 China's grain shortage would assume such proportions that the country would require to mop up all the grain surpluses in the world to meet its grain requirements. Economic planners must take heed before the two countries are irreversibly mesmerized by the great American dream, a dream of which the end result would be the ecological destruction of the planet. Studies carried out by the World Bank have made stunning revelations. When Thailand doubled its GDP, its industrial pollution load went up ten times. Similar expectations from India - it is a collective march to folly. If the West and the more advanced developed countries are unable to bear some pain now, they would have deprived the next generation of partial life support and the succeeding generations would be left with no life support. For the dangers that we face from ecological destruction go way beyond the mere problems of national security. We are talking of climate change, something that is much more than national security. The planet is dying and it is being strangulated due to the chemical pollution of the soil, the toxic waste entering the ground waters in most countries. Large portions of the planet are becoming azoic and certain natural cycles are being irreversibly destroyed. They cannot be reactivated, no matter what you do. Species extinction and habitat destruction are much greater threat than the climate change that people are talking about. The problem has to be looked at by humanity as a whole. Today the talk should not only be about what India should do, what China should do, but what the world should do. There is very little time left and everybody should start looking at this aspect that the ecological destruction of the planet is preceding at a pace which will leave no choice for the succeeding generations. Every country, lemming-like, has been talking about fiscal stimulus based on what happened in the 1930s depression. It's a different ball game now. In the 1930s depression there was no threat of the type we are talking about of the ecological devastation of the planet. There was no threat of climate change and things had not come to such a pass that we were not left with many choices. Today you have got a choice, this global recession has given you a choice: to lighten the footprint of man on earth and yet every government is pledging, going into deficit, printing currency to increase consumption of the same commodities that have got the world into this mess.  The world is producing 80 million cars per year. It is time to bring the figure down to 25 million or 40 million. Yet in every country, including China and India, leave alone the Western world, you are asking people to buy more cars, to trade in their bicycles for cars. We are headed towards global destruction much faster than we imagine. Global warming has become the lowest priority problem among Americans, according to a new Pew survey. Another Pew survey showed that China, the world's biggest emitter, cares even less than the US about global warming. Just 24 percent of Chinese population regards global warming a very serious problem making China the world's least concerned country. In the UK an opinion survey showed that most voters think that green taxes are raising cash rather than saving the environment. And seven out of ten are not willing to pay more taxes to combat climate change. To sum up this part of the presentation, overall one can say that China is heading towards becoming a world power primarily, so far that is, through its financial muscle as opposed to military might. This could change in the next five to ten years. So how is it affecting the world or the likely global outcomes? I will just flag off some of the main points, they don't require elaboration.

    China's military occupation of Tibet nearly 60 years ago has contributed enormously to the military and ecological insecurity of the eastern half of Asia. The horrendous effects of large-scale deforestation in the earlier decades linked to soil erosion, water pollution and spillage in water bodies of nuclear pollutants will take their toll on the Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia and even in China itself for tens of thousands of years. Some of the ecological devastation is irreversible; and now, as I said, more forces that are opposite Taiwan and more missiles are going to come into Tibet.
    China has lately become conscious of the havoc that has been caused, but it will take aeons, paleontological aeons, to undo the damage, if at all. Its occupation of the Tibetan plateau puts it in a position to use water as a weapon of war in the coming decades. It was suspected of causing floods in the Sutlej in Himachal Pradesh in the 1950s, although no definite proof can be given, as China has never allowed joint inspections. China's inability to curb its ally North Korea's nuclear missiles programs could force South Korea and Japan to increase military expenditure and exercise their options which to date, might have been put on the backburner. I am talking about how it is affecting the world.

    We need to spend some time on the much-heralded Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The 'Go West' policy was announced at the 16th party congress as the Interfax news agency reported in 2005. The policy objective is often simplistically depicted as China's interest to pursue both the Russian and Central Asia's energy sources. But the strategy is more complex. It is to ensure population settlement in the west and thus reduce the territorial vulnerability of western China and also build up a long-term base for a productive workforce, a prerequisite for making significant inroads into the region's oil and gas fields, and exploiting its other natural resources. As I had mentioned earlier, portions of central China and areas towards the east, when global warming comes up in the next 20-30 years, they will become uninhabitable. The move to the west is irreversible. Within Central Asia, although Russia was the co-prime mover in setting up the SCO, the real beneficiary from the pact has been China. Examining it in depth, the Chinese gains accruing from SCO individually and across the board are far greater than the benefits that have come the way of Russia or the other Central Asian countries that are currently forming part of the SCO. For example, China said very little in public of Russia's move into parts of Georgia last summer. Russia is making a strategic mistake if it equates China's public silence with tacit acquiescence to its claim to privileged interest in the post-Soviet Republics. Many of these are located on China's western flank. Proof of China's discomfiture was first seen at the 2008 summit of the SCO. President Medvedev, pushed the SCO to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia but the SCO demurred. The group's Central Asian members - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan would not have stood up to  Russia without China's support. At this year's SCO summit, the brief appearance of  Iran's disputed president-elect, Mahmud Ahmedinejad may have gained all the headlines, but China's announcement of 10 billion dollars fund to support the budget of financially distressed former Soviet Republics which followed head on after 3 billion investment in Turkmenistan and 10 billion investment on Kazakhstan provides more evidence that now China wants to shape events across Eurasia. So far China's rulers have regarded the emerging strategic competitions with India, Japan, Russia and the US as jostling for foreign influence in Central and South Asia. China's strategic imperative would be to ensure that no rivals acquire a dangerous preeminence in any of its border regions.
     Now going on to global reactions to China's muscle flexing: Russia is very sensitive to US moves into the old Soviet backyard. Ultimately the same thing is going to happen with China. Australia published its first defense paper since 2000. It did not do so for eight years. It envisaged a big boost in weapons purchases for the navy and these were estimated to cost 75 billion dollars. The French are setting up a naval base in the Gulf. Of course, some of it has to do with the American policy in the Middle East. I feel a lot of it has to do with the projected Chinese naval base in Gwadar on the Makran coast. Ostensibly, it is only the US that has the capability globally to deal with China in its global trajectory, aspirations and ambitions. When China Rules the World, the Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World is the latest book by Martin Lark; you must have read it. Along with the rise of China, the writer has also foretold a steep decline of the west, with which I would like to disagree. The last part of this presentation is India juxtaposed to China. Let me start with a few expert opinions from earlier books. Experts place China's assent to military superpower status at par with or almost at par with USA to the period 2035. When that stage is reached China could very well announce or tacitly start adopting a Chinese version of the Monroe Doctrine in Asia. In some respects it is already doing so. Most countries in China's neighborhood and especially Southeast Asia are already factoring Chinese sensibilities in their foreign policy projections. If the Chinese domination is not more overt or marked, it is solely due to the significant US presence in Asia. As to how long the presence lasts after alternate energy sources have been found or global dependence on Asian hydrocarbon reserves declines is anybody's guess. For demographic reasons akin to those of Japan and Europe, Russia too would have suffered considerable erosion in its geopolitical mass. By that time it would be well on the cards that China would have demographically expanded fairly massively into Asiatic Russia, Siberia, Kazakhstan and Tibet. By fair means or foul, Taiwan too would have come under Chinese sway, if not politically incorporated like Hong Kong as a province of China. Outer Mongolia would have remained only nominally independent.
    The perception is that a strong India with strong economic ties with ASEAN automatically becomes the balancer and stabilizer for Asia. Looking ahead, India has to build up its military strength in the coming decade. While it cannot hope to meet China's capability in a hurry, it can nevertheless, ensure that it is able to call a halt to the Chinese push to the south of the Himalayas.
    In the years to come practically all of China's neighbors other than some in South Asia would be happy to see India develop into an economic as well as military counter to China. Should it fail to live up to these expectations, India would have given a free run for China to dominate most countries in Asia and especially Southeast Asia. To some extent, Africa, Europe and Japan too could start feeling the heat. Unless India becomes conscious of its responsibility to itself, its neighborhood, Asia and the world and improves its military capability in a significant way; it might suffer military setbacks on its borders and loss of standing all around in the world. To be allowed to live in peace and harmony, India will have to increase its defense spending for the foreseeable future. It should be realized, however, that no matter how much it advances in the economic field, even if it were to overtake China at some point in time, India does not nurture the ambition to become a military superpower. Historically India eschewed such role; there has never been any defense paper from the very beginning that would indicate that India aspired to become a great military power. Even in the future, for generations to come, India's strategic reach would be limited to the Indian Ocean region and the subcontinent and its neighborhood. Seeing its size, and in not nurturing a larger or strategic global military vision, India stands unique in the comity of nations.

    India's election 2009 was a dire warning for the Chinese leaders,
extensively covered around the world, downplayed in China. Reasons are not far to seek; because the Chinese people with the advent of the internet are making comparisons. And there have been three elections - Iran, Indonesia and India - in China's neighborhood and it is making them uncomfortable. The second rhetorical question that I posed last year was, 'what happens to the Tibetan diaspora should China settle its boundary dispute with India?' The question can be put on the backburner indefinitely because China has no intention of settling its boundary dispute with India. I repeat a strong India providing a semblance of balance in Asia and in global forums would be welcomed by the world. Countries or  groupings like the European Union, ASEAN, Russia, Japan and Australia would feel reassured if India provided balanced mult-polarity, a term one can use in Asia if not the world. In its absence there would always be a lurking dread of further hegemonic aspirations from China, immediate or latent.

    And now I am going to read you something from a very much respected statesman of Asia and the world:  "A militarily muscular and self-confident India will at once become more outward looking and economically open and energetic. In the event it is also likely to be more understanding of its subcontinental neighbors and serve the largest strategic purpose of containing China by introducing in South and Southeast Asia an indigenous geopolitical balance, the absence of which is forcing the countries of the region to kowtow to Beijing". It is Mr. Lee Kwan Yew, who made this statement. I close this talk with the following remarks: Should China and India decide to join hands to map out their collective march to a more rational world order, assuredly the world would have turned the corner towards a better future for the human collectivity. For unless there is progress beyond competing national interest between China and India, to planetary interests there can be little hope for lasting peace on the Eurasian landmass or for the global order, to meet the challenges and aspirations of the 21st Century. 'Which Way is China Headed' is a question that has now been put on the backburner. China is perhaps the second most powerful nation after the US today. It has a great civilizational heritage. Nobody can foresee the outcome, 20 or 40 years hence. Much will depend upon the path that China follows. Will it continue to be a frenzied push towards American style consumerism or would there be a strategic pause to re-evaluate its options, a conscious turning towards its civilizational past as the well-spring of its future progress. Unless it does so, like its all-weather friend in India's neighborhood, China's transition to a stable democracy may be equally messy.
Thank you.
 ---------------------------------------------------------

* Maj. Gen (rtd) Vinod Saighal, Executive Director, Eco Monitors Society.
Author: website www.vinodsaighal.com



** (Since the talk in July 2009 a big question mark has now been put on the whole issue with the announcement of the US military package for Taiwan and the vociferous Chinese reaction to it. Evidently the Taiwanese would not like to be physically taken over by the Chinese).
---------------

Reconciling Coalition Dharma, Good Governance & National Security

The 2009 elections were considered a landmark in several ways. Once the results came in the collective sigh of relief from a large majority of the Indian population was audible across the length and breadth of the country. The prospect of a stable government at the Centre after the months-long prognostication of fractured coalitions based on Third and Fourth Fronts with any number of other strange combinations thrown in for good measure was indeed a welcome relief. Quite possibly the dread of unholy alliances without any pretense to good government had conveyed itself to the electorate. While welcoming the results there is a need to examine as to how this landmark election that paved the way for governance stability came about. To recapitulate a few aspects:

·The conduct of elections for an electorate of 700 million voters, 400 million of which were exercising their franchise can be deemed to be remarkable by any reckoning;

·In many respects the exercise can be said to have been unique, practically almost impossible to replicate on this scale elsewhere;

·Since T.N. Seshan became the Chief Election Commissioner about 15 years ago and showed the power that inhered in the Election Commission (EC) under the Constitution the EC has grown from strength to strength. Of course, such was the unfettered authority that Mr. Seshan vested in himself that an alarmed government had to appeal to the Supreme Court, which decided to make the Commission a 3-member body. Nevertheless the EC since the Seshan days has developed institutional vigour. It has won the respect of the electorate for holding ‘freer & fairer’ elections, even the grudging respect of the political parties;

·By now such is the stature of the Election Commission that political parties that were ruling the roost as part of UPA-I government (i.e., the first UPA government from 2004 to 2009) and have got decimated this time around have meekly accepted the people’s verdict. Nobody has seriously made the charge of ‘rigging’. This has to be compared with the turmoil in Iran after the latest presidential election and the unrest that follows election results in many other countries, not excluding the USA and the controversy in Florida that brought Mr. George W. Bush to the White House in January 2001;

·It is thus a fitting tribute to the maturing of India democracy and the respect that the Election Commission has earned for itself within the country and around the world;

·Since it has become one of the strongest pillars of Indian democracy it has to be seen to that the government ensures that Election Commissioners are persons of exceptional merit and intellectual honesty ;

·Therefore, the new government should follow the time-hallowed practice of selecting the best persons of irreproachable character and probity in consultation with the leader of the opposition.

·Similarly, retired Election Commissioners must not be given plum government positions for at least 10 years after retiring. In fact, such should be the strength of character of the Election Commissioners that even if offered tempting post-retirement sinecures, they should refuse. Unfortunately, this has not happened;

·In the 2009 elections – both at the centre and for the state assemblies that went to vote - the results have been termed as a ‘watershed’ by most political analysts and commentators.

But how did this result that brought a ‘collective sigh of relief’ across the length and breadth of the country come about. If one were to examine the composition of the  400 million or so voters who cast their votes it would be seen that the large majority of them, possibly over 80 percent, were from among the weaker segments of society, the lower middle class, the semi-destitute and most of them below the poverty line (BPL voters). As a guess based on inputs gleaned from the media it can be assumed that the depressed classes – the have-nots of society – generally turned out in full strength or very large numbers to cast their vote. The same unfortunately cannot be said about the middle class – the more affluent sections, the haves. Their voting percentage seldom exceeds 25 percent on an average; actually it may be lower. From the foregoing analysis one comes to the ineluctable conclusion that the so-called unlettered backwards constitute the backbone of Indian democracy, physically by their sheer mass as well as for their commitment to democracy. They are rooted in India’s soil. Their better-off upper crust brethren are more part of the new market-capitalised global fraternity that leaves much the heaviest foot-print on the fast depleting resources of the planet. It is the former who, yet again, displayed the rare wisdom to give India governance stability not only at the Centre, but practically in all the states where assembly elections were simultaneously held. Is there a lesson in this, which both the government and India’s wealth producers should take note of.

Now after the self- congratulatory bouquets it behooves us to discern the dark clouds on the horizon. The elections were staggered over a period of several weeks. Why was that necessary? Of late it has become almost mandatory to deploy central paramilitary forces in fairly large numbers to ensure that there is no booth capturing or voter intimidation. The geographical spread of the country and the remoteness of some of the areas make it very difficult, if not impossible, to deploy paramilitary forces and independent election observers in requisite numbers simultaneously all over the country. This mode of conduct of elections at the national level has come to stay, at least for the foreseeable future. Why should that be the case? In a manner of speaking isn’t it only a step away from conducting national elections under the aegis of the Army?  

The reason is that throughout the country, almost without exception, there is misgiving about the competence, impartiality or neutrality of the state law and order and governance machineries. It is a severe indictment of the local police and bureaucracy. Many chief ministers go out of the way to appoint partisan police officers and civil servants in certain constituencies prior to the elections. In fact, such was the ire of one of the chief ministers in the recent elections that several police officers and district magistrates were summarily transferred, as a punishment, where the chief minister’s party lost. In other words they were made to pay for not having sufficiently interfered with the conduct of free and fair elections. Even after this outrageous action, completely lacking in even elementary governance finesse, the CM got away with it without the Governor, the High Court or the Centre asking for an explanation. Ultimately the Supreme Court appears to have asked for an explanation based on a Public Interest Litigation (PIL). In sum, the constitutional authorities that justifiably could have intervened chose to look the other way. Why, because the conduct of practically every political party leaves much to be desired.
 
Criminalisation of the Polity
                         
Inevitably one is faced with the grim reality that the political parties – practically one and all – have contributed solidly to the criminalization of the polity. They have started giving tickets – approved at the highest levels of the concerned parties – to known criminals, notorious for their gangsterism, voter intimidation and even elimination of troublesome opponents. Their cases continue to languish in the courts for years, even decades. It would not be wrong to say that the political parties have joined hands to usher in ‘robust gangsterism’ into the political process – pre-election, during elections and post-election. The Election Commission as well as the Judiciary appear to have become listless bystanders of this mass rape of democracy.
What are the consequences of this seeming indifference on the part of those who have the power under the Constitution to set matters right. According to some studies, as compared to the year 2004, the number of MPs with criminal records has gone up. In the  2004 Lok Sabha, there were 128 MPs out of which 55 had serious criminal records and now there are 153 MPs with 74 having serious criminal charges against them. Thus, there is an increase of about 17.2 per cent in MPs with criminal records and 30.9 percent increase in the numbers of MPs with serious criminal records. Both the Congress and the BJP are studded with 43 and 41 such MPs respectively .Out of these, Uttar Pradesh has maximum MPs with criminal cases (total of 31 out of which 22 have serious charges against them). Maharashtra is second with 23 MPs having criminal cases out of which 9 have serious cases against them. It is followed by Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat. The criminalization of politics has become an extremely big concern. Even the numbers of MPs with serious criminal cases has gone up. The biggest reason for this seems to be the undemocratic and autocratic selection and nomination of candidates by political parties. Money and muscle power has become the electoral dharma of the political parties, the two largest among them, so-called main national parties, turning out to be the biggest agents for the criminalization of the polity and, by extension the entire process of governance. To put it another way, they are steeped in adharma.
In India most people understand the meaning of the word dharma. Very simply it can be explained as: “Dharma means every ideal which we can propose to ourselves and the law of its working out”. Of course, in this country the Karmic consequences of adharma are fairly well understood by most people, although the lust for power and short-term gains makes them lose sight of where their true interests should lie. Democracies work on traditions and conventions; however, a parliament with as many as 25 percent MPs with criminal backgrounds will certainly not be one that respects ethics, morality and democratic norms. It then becomes self-evident that ‘adharma’ has crept into the DNA of the new parliament, as was the case in the earlier parliament. As to how much of the ‘adharma’ creeps into government functioning will depend almost solely on the authority of the Prime Minister and his ‘desire’ or ability to express that authority seeing that many of his ministers have a background that puts them in the ‘unsavory’ category.
To amplify, in the previous government, in coalition UPA-I, the Prime Minister’s office, whatever anyone may say, lacked true authority. He was ‘appointed’ by the party leader as were several of his cabinet colleagues who did not show sufficient deference to him as should be the case in any cabinet system. This time around victory of the Congress Party is attributable to a considerable degree to Dr. Manmohan Singh himself. The nation has vested Dr.Manmohan Singh with a stature and authority that would be the envy of many leaders. The mandate is his, in the first instance, to restore “dharma”. The rest will automatically follow. It needs to be reiterated that in 2009 the Prime Ministership was not bequeathed to Dr.Manmohan Singh as it was in 2004. He is now the Prime Minister of India due to the assertion of the national will. The mandate is his as much as that of his party. From here on, the failure to raise the moral and ethical standard of the government will be directly at his doorstep.
In the light of the forgoing the first ‘order of the day’ for the PM should be to work towards the amendment of the Representation of People Act to exclude criminals from becoming legislators. A simple amendment to the affect that: “anyone against whom a court of law - not the prosecution or the executive - has framed criminal charges would be ineligible’. For no matter how improved the government functioning, the stench of criminality and, by extension, corruption from the legislative bodies pervades the land. Their numbers – of legislators with criminal backgrounds - has become so large that taking into account the state assemblies their combined strength exceeds the strength of any single political party. Taking the argument a step further, should a rallying cry go out for all legislators with criminal backgrounds to unite in casting their vote in the electoral college for the election of the next President or Vice President, they could materially affect the outcome. So pervasive is the corrupting influence of legislators with criminal backgrounds, more so in the state assemblies where ‘collectively’ their numbers might at some stage give them a simple majority in the legislature, that it is one of the biggest threats to national security. This threat being from “within” the system becomes even more insidious. If not ‘yet’ at the centre to the same extent, in the states the criminal- politician-bureaucrat nexus has become so entrenched that even when elements from the underworld, suspected as being amenable to infiltration from outsiders with anti-national motivation, are identified, the state police either feels helpless to act against them or puts their cases on the back burner because they have become too powerful to be proceeded against. Many such examples have surfaced from time to time in the national media. In the regional media journalists are routinely intimidated and even eliminated.
It should be understood that in many of the states the inroads made by anti-social and anti-national elements into the state government organisations are so deep that good governance has become virtually non-existent for large segments of the population. It is perhaps the single most contributory factor to the rise of ‘naxalism’ and ‘maoism’ in many districts of India. Who then is responsible for this state of affairs? To a man the blame for it rests almost entirely with the political parties and their fatal embrace with the criminal elements that they have taken to their bosoms. In the case of some regional parties the leaders of the political parties themselves have several cases against them. They have become chief ministers and home ministers, in charge of police and state intelligence forces. The rot is already too deep. There was a case, several years ago where a legislator with several criminal cases, including murder, against him was being strongly recommended for becoming the Home Minister or Minister of State for Home at the centre.
By now it should have become clear that in several states of the union a point has been reached that the damage is almost beyond repair. Occasionally judicial intervention keeps the system from completely going under. Remedial action by the Centre to restore good governance and the rule of law is nowhere in sight. Again the reason is that the two major national parties, the Congress and the BJP are themselves hopelessly complicit in the unholy nexus mentioned earlier on. Just make a tally of the number of people with criminal backgrounds to whom these two parties have given tickets for the Lok Sabha election 2009; add to that the tickets given for elections to state legislatures, the figures become much too high. They can no longer shy away from their role in the spread of corruption and decline in governance and law order across the country.
Amidst this dismal narration the ordinary, largely unlettered Indian voter, thanks to the impartial conduct of elections by the Election Commission has given the country another chance with a decisive mandate for stability and good governance to get rid of the corroding influences that have crept into the political parties and the legislatures. It is to be noted that while the numbers of legislators with criminal backgrounds may have gone up, some of the most notorious and entrenched mafia-like dons in UP and Bihar, after decades of ruling the roost through terror and voter intimidation, have had their comeuppance in the 2009 elections; almost entirely due to the sagacity of the voter and the tough no-nonsense approach of the Election Commission. The voters have not only given a stable governing majority at the Centre, they have repeated the pattern in all the state assemblies where elections were held.
To sum up this part of the presentation it can be said that the “foremost” duty of the Prime Minister and his government is to enact the necessary legislation to bring in an enabling environment for the expression of good government, restoration of law and order for the common man and the rooting out of corruption. The situation today is that even the most laudable programmes of the government do not reach the beneficiaries because the instrumentalities of the state for delivering the benefits at the end of the chain have been thoroughly corrupted or blunted. No doubt there are plenty of civil servants and police officers who remain uncorrupted. It is they who are carrying on the business of governance and have prevented the system from complete collapse. Their numbers, however, are fast dwindling.
In the light of the above the foremost legislative priority before the Manmohan Singh   government should be:-
 
·Amendment to the RPA as explained earlier;
·Completing the Police Reforms as ordained by the Supreme Court;  and setting up of the National Judicial Council and the Judicial Accountability Council;
·Ensuring that key institutions like the Election Commission the CBI and the Central Vigilance Commission remain totally insulated from political interference. Only the Prime Minister is in a position to ensure the agenda outlined above. He must act swiftly and decisively to reassure the public that he means business.

    All the legislative exercises mentioned above should be followed through on overriding priority. In any case, they should stand implemented, latest by 31 December 2009 - in the year of the mandate that revived the hope of  Indians that the country could be well on the way to good governance and inclusive growth for all - the former being a prerequisite for the latter. 
 
National Security

    In the last part, the presentation goes into an aspect of National Security that is on occasion subtly, even surreptitiously, undermined without the public at large, or even the coalition members, being aware that decisions being taken on behalf of the government in the field of foreign affairs were being made without reference to the rest of the cabinet or ministers of the coalition partners. In the two cases cited below they were made, more on the spur of the moment, violating the principle of collective responsibility of the party heading the coalition, or the coalition partners. In short, not enough evaluation was carried out as to their long-term ramification for the country. What is worse they were not even brought before the CCS for clearance.
The first item relates to the unilateral abrogation of the 1972 ABM Treaty by George W. Bush not long after coming to the White House. Of course the new president rejected many other protocols leading to consternation around the world. It would be recalled that the ABM Treaty between the USA and Soviet Union (later on Russia as the successor state) was the linchpin of the global security architecture after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Besides keeping a check on the billions of dollars being poured into Star Wars technologies, the Treaty essentially prevented an open militarization of space. The whole world – East and West – favoured the Treaty, India more so than others for reasons that would generally be well known. Nevertheless, almost immediately after the announcement being made in Washington, the MEA endorsed it whole-heartedly, taking the US media and the world by surprise at the speed at which India’s long-held position was overturned. Similar dismay was expressed in the Indian press. A cartoonist even showed the US flag flying on MEA vehicles. Needless to say, that neither the Cabinet nor the CCS and CCPA were consulted before the declaration from New Delhi. The coalition partners remained totally oblivious till much later. There was a suggestion by one of the commentators that somebody was personally trying to curry favour with the new US administration. Whatever be the case, it lowered India’s image in the eyes of the world.  
      The second instance is more recent. One fine day in 2007 practically the entire media in India as well as foreign policy veterans were shocked to learn that the previous day India had voted against Iran at the IAEA board meeting in Vienna. The amazement in Iran was palpable at every street corner. The reason being that since the visit of the foreign minister Sardar Swaran Singh to Tehran, followed by the visit of Smt. Indira Gandhi in 1974 relations between Iran and India had improved considerably. After that memorable opening the two countries started moving together in the economic field and India’s views carried weight in Tehran, as would be confirmed by diplomats posted to that country from that time onward. Besides the obvious energy security provided by a close neighbour in the region the two countries had been cooperating in Afghanistan  along with Russia. India’s connectivity to Central Asia through the only country whose assistance was available received a boost. Geopolitically it was crucial for India to remain friendly with Iran. Regardless as to how India felt about Iran’s quest for advanced nuclear technologies prior to the Vienna vote or post-facto after the deed was done, India’s geo-strategic imperative for a friendly Iran can hardly be denied. India could have abstained, in spite of the US pressure. After the casting of the negative vote relations between the two countries have taken a downturn. The Iranian government, irrespective of the hue, no longer trusts India. The image of the country of India’s size has also taken a hard knock. India cannot be trusted to take an independent stand was the feeling that swept the region, the pat on the back from the Western world and USA notwithstanding. However, without going into the long-term consequences of that fateful decision the fact remains that it was again not a collegiate decision. The Cabinet, CCS, CCPA or the coalition partners were not consulted. Had these entities been consulted it can be stated with reasonable certainty that the collective decision would have been to abstain rather than cast a negative vote against Iran in Vienna under pressure from the Americans.  
By hindsight the consensus would be that both were hasty and wrong decisions. However, in raising this issue the aim is not merely to discuss the correctness of the decisions or otherwise. The point being highlighted is that due process was not followed and due diligence was not carried out by experts, even in-house experts. The basis of the conduct of government in a coalition or even a single party government is the concept of collective responsibility of the cabinet. Not only in the field of foreign policy, even in the case of decisions that constitute drastic departure from existing policies, the reference to the CCS and the CCPA, where applicable, has to be mandatory. This principle should become sacrosanct. The principle of collective responsibility where critical issues are at stake must become inviolable hereafter. It should invariably be the collegium that should weigh and collectively decide on such very weighty matters.
In both the coalition governments, the NDA government headed by Mr. Vajpayee and UPA I, headed by Dr. Manmohan Singh the collegium was given the go-by, sometimes even the PM was given the go-by. This elementary principle of governance which is the cornerstone of parliamentary democracy must never be allowed to be violated with impurity in UPA II and all government that follows. 
  
  Concluding Remarks
 
Governments in the past have shown a strong penchant for shying away from reforms that enhance transparency, curb corruption at the higher levels of government or other legislative measures that would improve accountability. Some of the most urgent measures like amendment to the RPA, Police reforms and strengthening of the independence of the CBI, CVC and allied investigative agencies have been spelled out. The personnel deficiencies of many of these agencies have also to be made up on top priority. The other burning issues before the government, again in order of priority, relate to the setting up of the National Judicial Commission and the administrative reforms recommended by the Moily Committee.

     The government of Dr. Manmohan Singh should not hesitate to bring in the above-mentioned reforms at the earliest. The combined strength of the Congress and BJP comes up to 322; with just one or two of the major allies they are in a position to drum up a two-third majority for enacting the type of legislation that could take the country to the front ranks of well governed nations. The voters have spoken. The ball is squarely in the court of Dr. Manmohan Singh.
 
----------------------------------------------------------
*Based on the talk delivered at the India International Centre on 16 June 2009 by Maj.Gen (rtd) Vinod Saighal, Convenor MRGG - Movement for Restoration of Good Government. The talk was chaired by Dr. Kavita Sharma, Director IIC.

@ Vinod Saighal
16 June 2009


Agenda for the Copenhagen Conference and Prepcons

 To,

H.E. Ms. Connie Hedegaard,

Minister for Climate and Energy,

Ministry of Climate and Energy

Stormgade 2-6

DK-1470 København K

Denmark

    (Through Mr. Ole Lonsmann Poulsen, Ambassador, Embassy of Denmark , New Delhi )

Subject: Agenda for the Copenhagen Conference, December 2009

Hon'ble Minister,

WORLD ENVIRONMENTAL COUNCIL

While the preparations for the Copenhagen Conference to be held in December 2009 get under way a concomitant exercise needs to be undertaken to address the climate change and ecological crisis that the report is bound to highlight. In simple terms, the world is facing a situation whereby one strong individual or a coterie of individuals in control of the levers of power of a state can jeopardize the ecological future of a country, region, or the planet without there being a mechanism in place to effectively put a halt to the ecological menace being perpetrated on the future environmental sustainability of the planet.

In addressing this question which, shorn of rhetoric, will soon become – if it is not already the case - fundamental to the viability of life as we know it today one is straightaway confronted with the biggest stumbling block that has prevented the issue from being seriously resolved to date – the question of ‘national sovereignty’.

The issue has been addressed at length in the book, Third Millennium Equipoise*. Here it would suffice, for the purposes of this discussion to use the excerpt from an address given by the former Canadian Foreign Minister, Lloyd Axworthy:

The alternately transnational and interstate nature of many human security threats calls into question exclusive notions of state sovereignty, which is not an end in itself. Where human security is imperiled on a massive scale, the challenge for all of us is to consider the limits of sovereignty and the conditions for humanitarian intervention".

The moment the phrase ‘humanitarian intervention’ is used one immediately senses a withdrawal on the part of several entities uncomfortable with the thought of such interventions; patterned largely on the writ of the first powers in the Security Council or, as has been the case more recently, even without a UN mandate. To overcome this existential problem between those who have the wherewithal – and lately a demonstrated will – to intervene and those who could hardly come into this category, now or in the foreseeable future, the time has come to examine certain planetary concerns separately – as distinct from concerns related to human rights and other contentious north-south issues.

 Since one of the greatest threats to the continued viability of life on the planet is generally acknowledged to arise from carbon emissions and the ecological degradation of the planet it is now proposed to set up a World Environmental Council*, an entity within the UN Security Council with a global mandate and veto rights to safeguard the health of the planet as a whole. This entity would be in a position to mandate ‘ecological interventions’ anywhere on the planet in all cases where a panel of independent experts definitively averred that the concerned activity could pose a great danger to life forms or the ecological health of the planet. The term intervention need not be restricted to its military dimension. Intervention can take many other forms to bring about sustained global pressure to checkmate, reverse or halt the threat being posed to the global environment.

You are requested to have your secretariat study the concept and functioning of the WEC as given out in Third Millennium Equipoise (copy has been forwarded to you) for adaptation, with modifications if required. 

 

@Vinod Saighal 
Executive Director

Eco Monitors Society                                                                

New Delhi

August 1, 2009

----------------------------------------------------------


MRGG APPEAL TO THE PARLIAMENTARIANS OF THE FIFTEENTH LOK SABHA

   The din of elections is behind you. You are about to enter the portals of the most hallowed institution of Indian democracy. You have now become the repositories of the aspirations of India ’s teeming millions, the vast majority steeped in grinding poverty. What do they expect of you?

    Your foremost duty, before all else, is to apply salve on the wounds inflicted during elections. Forget the past. Look to the future. You have been sent to the capital city to address the larger national concerns; even if you happen to be a person of the most humble origins, from an area so remote that not many people would have heard of it. In taking your seat in the national parliament you automatically become endowed with a majesty that can be diminished only by your own conduct. Be ever mindful of the fact that if you allow your stature to be diminished, by conduct unbecoming of a national parliamentarian, it is not only you who are diminished. You will thereby be diminishing, in some small measure, the self-respect of every citizen of the country. Therefore, effect simplicity and conduct yourself with decorum. Ostentation and waste are not the culture of this land. They are the culture of lands that threaten our freedom and dignity.

      While you cannot turn your face from the winds of change sweeping the globe you must not be unmindful of the appalling misery in which the majority of your countrymen find themselves, In finding a mean between the pull towards greater prosperity of some segments and the drag of deprivation of others it has to be remembered that progress does not necessarily lie in bringing down the former. It lies in raising the level of the latter.  The best way of achieving this is to empower the downtrodden, at the grass roots, by giving them greater opportunity. In doing so, do not drive away the talented from your shores; to seek their fortunes in other climes. It is not possible to mass produce excellence. Talent and merit therefore, must be given their due.

     You should not be unaware of the anxiety expressed everywhere at the prospect of what was being referred to as a ‘hung’ parliament or shaky coalitions. Remember, the country is vast enough, amorphous enough, and resilient enough to democratically manage any change that is necessitated by the threat to its very cohesion and integrity.  You are the vectors of that change. The mental association formed by the words coalition government in relation to the type of politicians that people have become used to, could have one meaning. It could have an entirely different connotation for a new set of representatives who just might have a changed concept of national security and parliamentary decorum. Many of you, not carrying any deadwood from the past, could decide to first supply a vital dose of oxygen for reviving democracy before starting to bicker about the spoils of office. Should you still get sucked into the quagmire of unprincipled politics it would be worth keeping the larger national interest in mind; in areas that for all national-minded citizens should be forever beyond petty trade-offs. If these larger concerns, relating to national security, education, women’s emancipation, alleviation of poverty, environment, population stabilisation and law and order are addressed by all of you jointly, the nation need never look back. 

    If you are conscious of the dangers confronting your country the composition of the new Lok Sabha should give you quiet satisfaction. It could be a time for introspection; a time for renewal. The intrinsic strengths of the country are still greater than its weaknesses. The honest citizens still vastly outnumber the dishonest elements. Indian democracy has come to a historic turning point. It is for you to prove the cynics wrong. You have to show the world that the spirit of tolerance is as strong as ever in this land, home to the largest and most varied democracy in the world. The public at large, from the very humble to the very able, are sick of divisive politics. The silent majority that sent you to the Lok Sabha is ready to launch a strong and united India into the second decade of the new century. It is for you to take up the challenge and not disappoint, yet again, your long-suffering countrymen who have reposed their faith in you.

      There are many things wrong with our country. It has, however, hidden strengths which are not perhaps to be found elsewhere in the world. If you have the patience you too can tap those eternal reservoirs of India ’s timeless wisdom. If you can learn to drink from these wellsprings the riches that will be yours would be far greater than those provided by the coin of the realm. The choice is yours. Choose well.

MRGG – Movement for Restoration of Good Government; 38, Babar Road ; New Delhi - 110001

New Delhi, May 22, 2009

----------------------------------------------------------

De-Criminalizing the Polity

Hon'ble Chief Justice,

Over the years it would have been realized by the Hon’ble Justices of the Supreme Court that the political parties, irrespective of their hue, have no desire whatsoever to amend the Representation of People Act to exclude criminals from the legislatures. Not only have the political parties ignored the public clamor in this regard, they have gone on to increase the number of criminal elements to whom party tickets are given, ‘winnability’ being the sole criterion for selection of candidates. There would not be too many democracies in the world where nearly twenty percent of parliamentarians in the central parliament and much higher percentages in the state assemblies happen to be legislators with criminal backgrounds. Should one follow the graph of the rise of legislators with criminal backgrounds in the national and state legislative assemblies, it is only a matter of time before such elements go on to attain a figure of 40 or even 50 percent in the legislatures. At that stage, India, which has already become one of the most corrupt societies in the world, would truly have gone under, with no scope for remedial action, short of revolution to overthrow the Constitution. The higher judiciary that would have allowed the country to come to such a dreadful pass would have to share the blame.

          That the danger is now life-threatening for the Constitution and civilized functioning is no longer in doubt. What remains in doubt is the role of the judiciary. The public is already at its wits end in finding a way out of the dangerous drift. Will the judiciary at the highest level remain silent spectators and watch the body blow being delivered to good order and civilized existence, nay, to democracy itself.

          There are many PILs before the courts on the subject of criminalization of politics. We, the concerned citizens of India, now appeal to your lordships to suo motu take cognisance of our pleas so that the situation does not totally get out of hand. We do not have a system of referendums under our Constitution, but hypothetically were a referendum to be held on this issue, there is little doubt that well over 90 percent of the people would pray for deliverance from this scourge. We, hereby, request Your Lordships to set up a constitution bench to suo motu take up this question for consideration and deliver a clear verdict in the form of a directive to the Election Commission to disallow criminals against whom charges have been filed under the most grave sections of the I P C from filing their nominations for elections after January 1, 2009 or a cut-off date to be decided by the Supreme Court. At the very least, criminals already serving sentences in jail for heinous crimes should definitely be debarred from standing for elections.

          It hardly needs reiteration that criminals becoming law givers is ipso facto a violation of the freedom of ‘ordinary’ citizens that is guaranteed under the Constitution, besides being a negation of the principle of natural justice. The word "ordinary" has deliberately been put in parenthesis to indicate that there is a whole category of the citizenry that now rules the roost, subverts justice, and can be categorized as ‘extraordinary’; a category which is apparently outside the remit of Indian laws. 

Yours sincerely

Vinod Saighal

Convenor MRGG (Movement for Restoration of Good Government).18 October 2008

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


RIS High-level Conference on Financial Crisis, Global Economic Governance and Development
Response of Asia and the Global South 6 7 February 2009 New Delhi

***
The Third intervention was made on the afternoon of 7th February in the penultimate session chaired by Mr. Ashok Parthasarathi. The question related to the presentation on agriculture trade liberalization made by Dr. Timothy A. Wise of Tufts University, USA. He had, inter alia, laid emphasis on the threat to bio-diversity and the special safeguard mechanisms that would have to be considered. The amplification to the intervention is given below:

It would be noted that GM crops are routinely being introduced in developing countries without prolonged trials as to their safety and efficacy. While in the case of the European Union proper safeguard mechanisms for evaluation have been introduced the developing countries barring a handful lack the expertise for evaluating these. Even in countries like India that does not lack for experts in this field GM crops appear to have been introduced without due rigor. Possibly, it was on account of the concern expressed by several NGOs relating to bio-safety of the GM crops being introduced without rigorous evaluation that the Supreme Court was impelled to appoint the eminent founding director of the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB), Dr. Pushpa M. Bhargava as its amicus curiae. It has become a very contentious issue that is hotly debated in several fora in the country.
In the light of the above it was recommended that at least one or two institutes be set up in selected countries of the south for providing the necessary expertise to all developing countries for carrying out proper evaluation prior to induction of GM crops.
(Both Dr. Wise and the Chairperson welcomed the suggestion. It is hoped that RIS will progress the issue with ADB, UNDP, WHO, UNEP, World Bank and the governments of the south that have the wherewithal and the expertise for progressing the case).

Vinod Saighal
Executive Director
Eco Monitor Society
New Delhi, February 12, 2009
www.vinodsaighal.com

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Nagesh,
 herewith the amplification of my intervention in the third session on February 6, 2009. I believe the President RIS might also like to see it. You may also like to circulate to others.
A line in acknowledgment would be appreciated.
Regards
Vinod Saighal
Executive Director, EMS
--------------------
RIS High-level Conference on Financial Crisis, Global Economic Governance and Development
Response of Asia and the Global South 6-7 February 2009, New Delhi

                               ***
Amplification of intervention made in the third session on February 6, 2009:
 
It would be cruel to even suggest that the global economic meltdown of 2008 might turn out to be a blessing in disguise when several tens of millions across the globe would have lost their job. Nevertheless, the fact is that the pattern of obscene, hedonistic, devil-may-care attitude of consumption followed in the USA and many of the advanced countries, which was fast being emulated by the upwardly mobile strata of emerging economies would have sounded the death-knell for the habitability of the planet well before the middle of the century.  Therefore, the pain that the less-privileged segments of the economic pyramid might have to bear for anything up to a decade or more might actually provide breathing space to Mother Earth to recover from the ravages of super consumption in the years preceding the economic down turn.
The response to the crisis being followed uniformly by governments across the world needs to be reevaluated. It seems to be a single pattern approach for reviving the economy that comprises fiscal stimulii for giving a boost to consumption, i.e., reverting to what went before, albeit on a lower scale. But human beings conditioned by millennia of received wisdom know that if their future economic well-being appears bleak it would be in the fitness of things to put something by to ward off continued hunger and deprivation, for themselves and their children. It is centuries-old ingrained reflex that no urging by their governments can overturn. Ironically, the banks themselves to whom revival packages have been provided by the governments are following the same logic, first building their reserves before resuming large-scale lending. Prudential norms that are the basis of sound banking are being re-learned after the unmitigated disaster resulting from the profligate years of unfettered consumption.
The governments also do not seem to have learned their lesson. For example, taking the case of USA the biggest defaulter, the US government has resorted to the printing of large quantities of banknotes without the fundamentals to underpin the printing surge, thereby adding to the burden of the next generation, already indebted to a very high degree.
The time has come for the human race, both the governors and the governed, to relearn the wisdom of their forefathers: the wisdom of frugality, of the ineluctable need for the sake of the future of humanity to reduce the footprint of every individual on the planet. Hence, the very nature of the fiscal stimulii urging people to go out and spend needs to be reexamined. Looking into the future habitability of the planet it would be a salutary exercise to identify the consumption lines that need to be encouraged and those that need to be discouraged or even suppressed. A global stock taking in this regard has to be the order of the day. It might turn out to be humanity’s last chance to heed the wisdom of Mahatma Gandhi and the economic thinking outlined in many of his writings.
 
Vinod Saighal
Executive Director
Eco Monitor Society
New Delhi, February 9, 2009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I was based in Tehran in the early 1970s and had to learn Farsi (Persian language). In fact, my wife learned it too. This gave us access to all segments of Iranian society, from the Burra Bazar in Tehran to the highers up in the Iranian government and aristocracy. What our interaction with the Iranian people, practically across the board, revealed was that the Iranian youth were very much attracted to the USA. The young people of other countries  would also have been attracted to the USA at that time and would have emigrated to the USA given half a chance. However, the case of the Iranian youth was different. They felt genuine warmth for USA and what it stood for. The Khomeini revolution changed the situation for the best part of the last century, especially owing to the prolonged Iran-Iraq war where the US openly sided with Iraq.
   
Since that time there has again been a change of sorts, if not a change of heart. The average Iranian is fed up with the restrictive regime of the religious leaders. They are bullied and cowed down by the authorities. Nevertheless - possibly on account of the oppressiveness of the regime - the old sentiment has started resurfacing to an extent. The young Iranians do not have the same deep-seated animus toward America as many other Arab or Muslim countries, for the reason that Iran had a very civilised pre-Islamic past. Many Iranians, especially the young, are trying to lift the Islamic overlay and peep into that glorious age. There is distinct yearning to re-discover that golden period. US policies are pushing the young people in Iran toward the hardline elements for reasons of national pride and not belief. It would be in America's interest to reach out to the youth by engaging with the Iranians, rather than pushing the Iranians into a corner.
   
Rapprochement with Iran will greatly help in stabilising Afghanistan and create foreign policy options for the Obama regime that were self-denied to the USA for so long. It will go a long way to settle the Palestinian issue as well.
 
Vinod Saighal
New Delhi - January 26, 2009 


WHAT IS EXPECTED OF PRESIDENT- ELECT OBAMA

I* was interviewed by several Latin American journalists after the launch of the Spanish edition of my book Equilibrio en el Tercer Milenio (English title: Third Millennium Equipoise), during the Caracas International Book Fair in the second week of November 2008. Excerpts from the reply relating to the US economy and the choices before president-elect Obama are reproduced below:-

“The US economy is already staggering under a foreign debt of 11 trillion dollars. The Bush administration had undertaken a rescue mission of 700 billion dollars. It is unlikely to revive the US economy, which is in for a recession that could last up to five years or more. Similar packages that the incoming Obama administration administers to boost the economy could simply be throwing good money after bad. Printing paper money and putting it into circulation without the backing of strong fundamentals can be likened, with only slight hyperbole to what happened in Argentina in 1989 to cite a recent example. President-elect Obama will be greatly hamstrung in his efforts to put USA back on the rails.

    Hence, with limited choices available to him within the country in the initial period, he must reassert US influence externally to prevent the planet from going into a tailspin a few years or few decades down the line. What are the areas where decisive US leadership can prevent a (possibly) irreversible planetary decline?

    First and foremost Mr. Obama must halt and then reverse the militarization of space. The 1972 ABM Treaty was the linchpin of global security till the turn of the century before President George W. Bush  unilaterally abrogated the treaty. Therefore, Mr. Obama must first restore mutual confidence between USA and Russia for which he will have strong backing from the European Union. Once the groundwork for stopping the militarization of space has been prepared between USA , Russia and the EU, China and India will automatically follow suit. In the process several hundred billion dollars, if not trillion dollars, will also be saved and put to more productive use.

     The second important aspect relates to the forthcoming NPT Review Conference in 2010 for which the preparatory work will begin in 2009. President- elect Obama - the harbinger of change - owes it to the world to make the Nuclear P5 states show tangible progress on Article VI of the NPT; Otherwise, for all practical purposes, this enormously important treaty for the well-being of humanity can be considered a dead letter thereafter. Horizontal proliferation will take off in a big way, both overtly and covertly.

     The third important issue relates to the Kyoto Protocol. Not only must the USA participate more meaningfully, it must assume leadership and propel it towards much higher goals than is presently the case. Should there be further dithering in this regard the world will be overtaken by events over which it will have no control - well before 2050, if not by 2020.”

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maj. Gen (rtd) Vinod Saighal. www.vinodsaighal.com

       




MAKING THE CITIZENS OF
DELHI FEEL THAT THERE IS A FUNCTIONAL GOVERNMENT

                                                                            

          A news item in the Times of India (September 5, 2008) under the heading “India Gate falls to Petty Thieves, Chains Go Missing Overnight” speaks for itself. If the heavy ornamental iron chains fixed on both sides of the high security zone of Rajpath can go missing the authorities would be well advised to give the Commonwealth Games (CG) the go by. EMS has been reporting on these aspects for quite some time. In this regard attention is invited to EMS letters dated 3 August 2007, “Plundering of Assets”, 21 September 2007 “Upkeep of Delhi Parks” and 3 October 2007 “Making Delhi a World Class City” (copies attached).

          These missives sent to the Lt. Governor of Delhi, Chief Minister of NCT, Police Commissioner and the Chief justice of the Delhi High Court besides highlighting cases of asset stripping went on to suggest methodologies for setting matters right. However, in spite of assurances from the concerned departments, evidently prodded by the higher authorities, the situation on the ground has actually deteriorated. There is indubitably deep lethargy in these departments that will need a heavy hand to set things right; more so, when comparisons are likely to be made with the conduct of the Olympic Games in Beijing.

          Notwithstanding the deep conviction among the citizens of Delhi that governance itself is in terminal decline recommendations made from time to time are again encapsulated for urgent action. Briefly:

·        Tourist sites must be made ‘tout free’. Every important tourist site and major park must have full time security wardens, with decent remuneration, selected from ex-servicemen (after careful selection) so that they can ensure the upkeep as well as security of these complexes and parks with an iron hand. They would further ensure that rules governing the conduct of visitors are strictly adhered to as is the case in all major cities of the world. The selection and remuneration of the wardens has been covered in earlier letters on the subject.

·        The menace of touts is so acute that unless strict enabling legislation is enacted to deal with the problem tourists will start avoiding Delhi and other Indian cities. On the other hand if ‘touting’ is ruthlessly eliminated visitors to India will increase manifold.

·        Railway stations and bus terminals must have improved security. Touts have to be totally excluded from these areas as well.

·        Security for the Commonwealth Games - and beyond the Games for the citizens of Delhi - will remain imperiled unless illegal Bangladesh settlers are rounded up with great diligence and repatriated well before the commencement of the games.

The steps taken to present Delhi as a truly world class city will have to be implemented at the earliest so that they are institutionalized well before the Games. Thereafter, they must remain in place so that the citizens of Delhi can live in peace. What visitors must not witness during the CG are gun-toting security personnel at every street corner. Security will certainly require to be augmented, not only for the CG, but for the citizens of Delhi as well. However, it should be far more discreet than is presently the case during major events held in the capital.

                                                                                              Yours sincerely

                                                                               

                                                                                                Vinod Saighal

                                                                                                (Executive Director)

 
 
H.E. Shri Tejendra Khanna                                                  

Lt. Governor of Delhi,

 -------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3 October 2007

            MAKING DELHI A WORLD CLASS CITY

Excellency, 

          Allow me to invite your attention to EMS letters dated 3 August and 21 September 2007 relating to ‘plundering of assets’ and ‘Upkeep of Delhi Parks’ respectively. Follow up directions would, in all probability, have gone thereafter to all concerned. Reply received from MCD Deputy Director (Hort) (copy of letter No. 90/DDH/CL/dated 21.09.07 attached) is a fair assessment of the situation. It is typical of several other missives received either by mail or on the telephone. While not touching upon their own infirmities or inaction, these departments, nevertheless, make out a reasonable case for assistance. There is hardly any doubt that anti-social elements, contractor labour, jhuggi–jhopri dwellers and large sections of the floating population that does not have the same commitment to Delhi as the honest taxpayer are very much on the rampage. What is more, these elements have changed their tactics; they send women and children to indulge in the activities described in the EMS letters referred to above. The police, being overstretched with VIP security and political agitations, are simply not in a position to deploy adequate resources to check the pilferage and destruction of public assets at the hands of the floating population, which includes illegal Bangladeshis.

          In the light of the foregoing it is recommended that some of the best known security-cum-detective agencies be awarded separate zones in Delhi on annual contracts directly under the aegis of the Lt. Governor’s secretariat or by the departments responsible for creation and maintenance of the assets. The security agencies have the wherewithal as well as the expertise to not only apprehend the culprits, but to also provide the proof for prosecution and expulsion in the case of illegal settlers. The remuneration of the security agencies would be performance based. They should not get involved in tasks that are the prerogative of intelligence agencies dealing with national security.  

          Before setting in motion the recommendations made above a thorough analysis may please be carried out by the police, intelligence, vigilance and other entities involved with law and order and security so that maximum benefit is obtained from the contracts awarded. These would be standardized and the format made available to all concerned. It would be part of the contract that information gathered would only be divulged, in sealed covers, at appropriate levels, to recipients designated by name and appointment.

          While setting in motion procedures to revitalize entities, many of whom give the impression of having gone into terminal decline, care has to be taken to build in periodic reviews and mid-term corrections so that revival of ‘in-house’ institutional vigour becomes the basis for long-term revitalization.  

          It is again reiterated that EMS is not a complainant in any sense of the word. NGOs and civil society in Delhi would like to join hands with the government to make Delhi a world class city of which all Indians visiting the capital – in addition to foreigners – can be proud.

 

VINOD SAIGHAL
9 September, 2008

(Executive Director)

H.E. Shri Tejendra Khanna

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Spare a Thought for the Security Forces

The situation in Jammu & Kashmir has deteriorated considerably, the reasons for the impasse having been aired often enough. The nature of the crisis is political. For that matter the majority of the crises facing the country result generally from political miscalculation, meddling or infighting; absence of firm handling during the incipient stages of the crisis, corruption, faulty governance and a host of similar reasons. In sum, in the vast majority of cases, be it the Centre or the States, the blame can be laid squarely on the political leadership. The security forces come into play when the situation has gotten out of hand. They are there to pull the chestnuts out of the fire for the political managers. And yet, time in and time out, they are blamed for either not acting firmly or at the other extreme for using excessive force. No doubt there have been cases of excess from time to time. However, to routinely put the blame on the hard pressed security forces can only result in their demoralization. Prolonged demoralization can put the state itself in peril.

Therefore, the time may have come to sit back and dispassionately review the conditions under which the security forces operate. It is a given that in recent years casualties suffered by the security forces, killed as well as wounded, have been on the rise. The government ordering their deployment remains blissfully unaware of their trials or tribulations. Take the example of the CRPF personnel deployed in Srinagar. The men have to be on guard day and night without respite. They are away from their families and loved ones for months on end in extremely hostile environments. It is not the agitators, but the security forces that are hunkered down, besieged by hostile elements from all sides. They face vile abuses. In spite of daily provocations they are required to show restraint. In 99 percent of the cases they do show restraint. Their mental condition is inadequately understood. They can never let their guard down, whether on duty or attending to their normal chores. The initiative always being with the hostile elements they can be stabbed in the back whenever they stir out or they can be subjected to bullets or grenades from any direction, at any time. Within the security perimeter they have been subjected to mortar attacks. In sum these are conditions that would drive to despair almost any security force in any country. The Indian security forces, by and large, show restraint that is exemplary. The truth of the statement becomes apparent when comparison is made with what is happening in other countries of the world, especially the countries in the neighbourhood. India’s security forces, mindful of the responsibility they shoulder, have become inured to taunts and jibes from hostile elements. They have taken with equanimity revilement by the press and, occasionally, the public when operating in disturbed areas. There have been numerous occasions where the governments of the day - or political leaders - to save their own skin  have suspended security forces officers (in the paramilitary or police) or ordered inquiries against them without justification, as a placatory measure.


What emerges from the description of the conditions under which security forces have been operating is the extreme physical and mental stress to which they are subjected. So far they have been able to take the stab in the back from elements inimical to the country. They have been able to withstand tremendous pressures of the type that have driven security forces of other countries round the bend. What the nation’s security forces may not be able to withstand indefinitely is a stab in the back from their own political masters, who have become adept at pulling the rug from under their feet with increasing regularity, almost across the political spectrum.  It hardly needs reiterating that the political masters have let the security forces down at critical junctures. Were a deeper analysis to be made it would be found that more casualties are suffered by security forces, especially the CRPF, due to political ineptitude and thoughtless deployment than due to action by insurgents. An elaboration might be in order.


All units of the security forces, be they army or paramilitary forces, require rotation, rest, re-fitment and training after every two years of operational deployment, failing which performance deteriorates rapidly. After each operating cycle of two years under extreme conditions (for example J & K), if a unit of the CRPF is redeployed without having gone through a fresh training cycle ‘as a unit’ under their own officers, responsible for their training and command, it is bound to suffer heavy casualties immediately on re-deployment. In India, not only are units not given adequate time for rest, re-fitment and training after every operational cycle, they are actually tossed around like leaves in the wind, some times in penny packets in totally new environments and pushed straight into operations without elementary reconnaissance, liaison and so many other essentials of this nature. Therefore, blame for the casualties suffered in ambushes, where entire platoons are wiped out, can be laid directly at the doorstep of the ministry, up to the highest level. The culpability, in all such cases, is that of the government that throws them around in a cavalier fashion and equally that of the top brass of the paramilitary forces who do not insist on adequate training, rest and re-fitment after each cycle and, what is more important, insistence on deployment as cohesive units or subunits under their own officers. The nation has to awaken to the state of affairs that obtains with regard to the deployment of the security forces and the ruinous effect on their morale and training due to the factors listed above.

Human rights issues are taken up routinely by human rights commissions, national and international NGOs as well as the press and the public. It is high time that the government and all concerned pay heed to the human rights of the security forces.

August 19th, 2008
© Vinod Saighal

Convenor MRGG (Movement for Restoration of Good Government)

Dalai-Lama: el hombre y su visión
por General Vinod Saighal *

El Dalai Lama ha sido indistintamente calificado como líder autoexiliado, el refugiado más famoso del mundo, un monje itinerante, uno de los oradores más admirados del mundo, un premio Nobel, una celebridad que puede opacar a muchas otras- pero casi nunca ha sido descrito como una figura trágica que representa una causa imposible.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aunque cada una de esas descripciones puede decirse que contienen un elemento justo o medida que se ajusta a la verdad, no ofrecen una perspectiva real del hombre. Su atracción personal, su sonrisa radiante y carismática personalidad han inspirado muchas biografías, artículos y comentarios escritos por muchos de sus admiradores en el mundo, que reflejan una genuina admiración, adulación y respeto. Sin embargo, todas son manifestaciones externas de un ser humano fascinante, de una figura semi-divina que no tiene otros atributos más que su única humanidad y humildad.

El era muy jovencito cuando su país fue invadido. Si hubiera tenido entonces la sabiduría de los años, ¿habría enfrentado al invasor de manera diferente? ¿Es que acaso tenía otra opción? ¿Es que sufre por lo que pudría haber hecho? o ¿es que percibe el profundo sentido de la traición de de otras naciones que pudieron hacer cambiar el curso de los acontecimientos? India , el otro gran vecino, ya era independiente cuando se produjo la invasión comunista de China . Seguramente pudo pasar por su mente la tentadora idea de que, en circunstancias diferentes, un Sadar Patel al frente de los acontecimientos en la India hubiera podido salvar al Tibet .

En última instancia, habría inventado un modus vivendi más aceptable con los chinos, antes de darles la carta blanca para que hicieran lo que querían. Una y otra vez, el destino de las naciones parece haber sido conformado según sus líderes. ¿Es que entonces los líderes condensan en su persona el destino de los pueblos?, ¿o el destino engaña a las naciones al crear líderes que siguen su mandato? Cualquiera que sea la realidad, sigue sucediendo que el destino, mientras se muestra dócil a los cambios, no puede ser revertido. Ni la historia puede se borrada. El creyente en el destino debe detenerse a pensar si el destino ha apartado su vista de él, de sus conciudadanos, o de ambos inclusive. En su arriesgado viaje, un viajero debe enfrentarse al dilema de las épocas, para lo cual no ha habido respuesta satisfactoria alguna desde tiempos inmemoriales, a pesar de los voluminosos tratados filosóficos que existen sobre el tema.

Qué le faltó al Tibet en la segunda mitad del siglo XX? ¿Incapacidad de sus líderes para anticipar los acontecimientos y un plan propio? ¿o fue el destino del pueblo del Tibet ser testigo indefenso de la subyugación de su país por parte de un invasor que no mostró ni misericordia ni respeto por su cultura, aunque perteneciera a una de las más importantes civilizaciones que el mundo ha conocido. Se dice que el Dalai Lama ha confiado a algunos de sus entrevistadores- que en serio o en broma debe quedar en dudas- que él y su pueblo experimentaban su período de «Karma».

Cuántos momentos en solitario habrá tenido el líder tibetano mientras agonizaba al recordar aquellos días oscuros cuando el tirano presionó con su puño por primera vez el corazón del Tibet . Y aun está ahí. ¿Cuántas veces vio la desgracia de su pueblo que logró sobrevivir tras la larga caminata hasta la India y hacia la libertad-más que hacia la libertad, hacia él para verlo en persona y buscar su bendición. Con tal carga sobre sus hombros, ¿qué clase de fuerza sobrehumana es él capaz de tener para mantener la sonrisa en su rostro cuando mira al mundo? ¿es esa fortaleza inagotable? ¿Algún día de estos pondrá fin a su vida? ¿Acaso conoce el simple monje budista, el líder de inspiración divina, que le repara el futuro a su pueblo? ¿Son el optimismo y la alegría un medio de prevenir que él y su pueblo caigan en fatal ciénaga de la que no hay salida posible, ni siquiera a través de la Karma u otra forma?

Nadie, ni siquiera el mismo Dalai Lama conoce las respuestas a esas preguntas. Pero él si sabe que la misma naturaleza de la existencia plantea que la lucha misma es vida, Karma o el color de la existencia. En su caso casi no se pueden aplicar paralelos históricos. Poca gente describiría su enérgica defensa como una batalla entre David y Goliat. El se mantiene profundamente comprometido con la filosofía Gandiana de la no violencia, que es una rama de la filosofía Budista.

 Naturalmente, este seguidor de Buda rechaza la violencia. Ha dado una nueva dimensión al concepto de Gandhi. La lucha tibetana que él encabeza no le exige al opresor que abandone sus tierras. El es capaz de ajustarse a la situación; se sentiría satisfecho con la autonomía del Tibet bajo control chino. Hay que admirar la sagacidad del líder tibetano. Ellos tienen una fuerte presencia militar en Tibet y en varias ocasiones han mostrado absoluta crueldad. La lucha armada no tendría éxito sin el apoyo activo del gobierno de la India .

 General Vinod Saighal

Antiguo director general de la formación militar del ejército indio . Fue agregado militar de la embajada de la Unión India en Francia y en los Países Bajos. Comandante en jefe de las fuerzas de paz en el Medio Oriente. Hoy en día ha fundado el Movement for Restoration of Good Government (MRGG) y director del Eco Monitors Society (EMS). Autor de numerosas obras de estrategia y análisis político: Equilibrio del Tercer Milenio, La reestructuración de la seguridad en el Sur de Asia, La reestructuración de Pakistán, Enfrentar el terrorismo global: El camino adelante y las paradojas de la seguridad global: 2000-2020. Sitio Web www.vinodsaighal.com. El general Vinod Saighal es miembro de la conferencia mundial anti-imperialista Axis for Peace.

Los artículos de esta autora o autor 

April 21st, 2008
© Vinod Saigha
l



Cri de Coeur


The recent outburst of the Tibetans does not fall into the category of violence or non-violence in the accepted Gandhian sense of the word Ahimsa that the Dalai Lama and many others hold dear. The Tibetans living in Tibet have felt the crushing burden of the tyrant’s heel pressed on their hearts for many decades since the Chinese first occupied Tibet in 1950. Slowly but surely they have seen the destruction of their culture and Tibet ’s environment. As if that were not enough their religious freedom has been curbed and their most holy sites and cities occupied by the Hans - civilians as well as the military. In their daily lives they are obliged to suffer every humiliation visited upon their families. They see their land grabbed, their assets appropriated and their liberties eroded with increasing severity. Their kith and kin have been incarcerated under sub-human conditions by the tens of thousands; Killings of hundreds of thousands of their countrymen has gone hand in hand. In the face of such prolonged suffering to which they see no end in sight the rage in their hearts at their helplessness and their inability to prevent humiliation to their women and children had to find release at some point in time. Had they not done so they would have gone into collective depression and become like enslaved zombies fully reconciled to their fate generation after generation, century after century, as was the case with the backward classes in India . The collective depression, had it ensued, would have had more far-reaching effect on any hope for future revival than the systematic cultural genocide at the hands of the Chinese masters. The uprising was a cri de coeur – a veritable scream from the heart signifying that their suffering had crossed the threshold of human tolerance. In their own way they have tried to arouse the consciousness of the world that seemed to have abandoned them and was well on the way to forgetting them altogether. Should anyone categorize the March 2008 outburst of the Tibetans in Lhasa and other places as a form of violence in the Gandhian sense it would bespeak a lack of understanding of the essence of Ahimsa. Even Gandhi had something apt to say on this score.

 
March 22, 2008
©Vinod Saighal


 
LOOKING BACK: GANDHI LEGACY FACTOR AS A BACKDROP TO  INDIA'S GLOBAL ASPIRATIONS                        

In spite of millennial domination by rulers of non-Indian denominations that came to rule India from across the seas and from across the formidable Himalayan frontiers, India ’s ancient civilisational heritage remained largely intact. Similarly, despite large-scale conversions at the hands of its foreign occupiers the vast majority of Indians continue to adhere to the faith of their ancestors. The ancient Rishis of India in the mists of antiquity revealed to the world the nature of Brahman Chaitanya (Cosmic Consciousness) several millennia before the rise of the Abrahamic religions that spread across much of the world in the last two millennia. Vedic inspired denominations had also spread beyond Indian shores prior to that, mostly in the East. But, as distinct from the spread of Christianity and Islam, the sword had no part to play in the Eastward expansion of Vedic thought and Buddhism. Nor did the pacific expansion of Indic thought lead to bitter interdenominational strife in the regions where it spread. It is important to keep this subtle but important difference in mind when examining the influence that an economically resurgent India might wield as the world moves deeper into the 21st Century.

An aspect that needs revisiting is the manner in which India got its Independence in 1947, at the time when the 20th Century after having seen two world wars was nearing its mid-point. Historians in India have attributed the country’s independence to Gandhi’s satyagraha; while it may be soulfully satisfying in an age sickened by violence to believe that India marched to freedom on the frail shoulders of the Mahatma’s philosophy of non-violence, such attribution strays considerably from reality. India got its freedom as a result of Britain ’s exhaustion after the two world wars and its replacement as a global power by the new superpowers, USA and Russia . There is no way that Britain could have held on to its Indian empire much longer. The British Indian armies had played a significant role in the allied victories in the two world wars. Post-1947, had the British delayed the granting of independence, the battle-tested troops of the Indian Army – the Army that had underpinned Britain ’s world dominions for well over a century - would have soon rebelled, forcing an ignominious retreat on the British. There had already been a rebellion in the Indian Navy and the trial of returned INA (Indian National Army) prisoners of Subhash Chandra Bose had rekindled the spirit of fervent nationalism. The tinder being dry the call for an armed insurrection by a national leader would have led to a number of mutinies across the length and breadth of India . Had law and order broken down it would have engulfed the British. The two-century edifice of the British Raj would have crumbled overnight. It would have led to large-scale massacre of the British, something which was visited instead on the Hindu and Muslim communities when partition of India took place with the announcement of the Radcliffe Award in 1947. Because they left when they did the British went home in a blaze of glory with abundant goodwill for the Crown. They even saw their last Viceroy, Lord Louis Mountbatten appointed as the first governor- general of independent India . Such was the goodwill that obtained at the time of relinquishment of the colonial empire, that the leaders of free India went on to become the architects for the formation of the British Commonwealth of nations.

Ironic as it may seem it was the British who put a Hindu on the throne of Delhi for the first time after one thousand years of foreign rule. The Hindus never fought for it. In a manner of speaking it was bequeathed to Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru, the first Prime Minister of independent India by an act of the British Parliament in London . Meanwhile, M.K. Gandhi, the apostle of peace, who had propounded ahimsa for nearly half a century, could only watch with horror the large-scale killings that took place when the subcontinent was divided - into the nations of India and Pakistan . Gandhi died not long after from an assassin’s bullet at a prayer meeting, hardly more than a mile from where Nehru, the anointed Prime Minister ruled the new nation. Had Gandhi not been killed by Nathu Ram Godse’s bullet, he would have died of a broken heart, unable to bear one of the worst slaughters in Indian history, possibly the largest non-war slaughter in world history.

            A brief introduction to modern India ’s birth pangs becomes necessary to understand the psyche of its leaders when evaluating India ’s projected rise to the status of a world power in the 21st century. To what extent would India ’s economic might lead to military might commensurate to its geographic size and population base? Will it emulate China ’s search toward hegemonic parity with USA , the unchallenged superpower of today? Are there limits to India ’s military power projection in the current century and beyond? If so who and what set those limits? These questions that need to be addressed in the framework of the present global scene and its likely projection for the coming decades.

Although Gandhi continues to form an important part of the ongoing political and economic discourse taking place in the country it has to be said that in spite of the ideals of the Mahatma being quoted reverently at most forums where the future course of the country is debated, his economic and political philosophy has not found acceptance in so far as its practical application goes. Yet, at the end, it is difficult to think of an India that completely dissociates itself from the beliefs of the Mahatma, whether they relate to governance, sustainable development, harmony in pluralistic societies, or for the conduct of nations in the global arena. It is not surprising that Gandhi continues to attract the attention of so many people around the world, both as the man and the ideals that he stood for. Unfortunately, the debate around the Mahatma rages mainly around elements that were never put into practice in the land where they took birth.

Looking back on the events of the 20th century, both pre- and post-independence in India , one cannot fail to get the impression that although he did not lose hope or his faith in his ideals Gandhi might have died a disillusioned man; if not disillusioned, certainly heartsick at the turn of events. Did the bloodletting that took place at the time of partition in the land where for decades he had preached ahimsa indicate that his philosophy had failed? It did not end with partition. The bloodletting continues to this day in every part of the subcontinent where the ‘father of the nation’ traveled.

The increasing hiatus between Gandhi’s tenets and the policies followed by Gandhi’s successors in India , regardless of their political leanings, raises fundamental questions. For the people of India and for people around the world there can be no perception of India , real or imagined, where the ideals of the Mahatma do not loom large. How is this contradiction to be reconciled? Because, if it is not addressed and is merely glossed over at every public place within the country and without, where the name of Gandhi is taken, India will not be able to emerge unscathed from the troubling dissonance between the precept and its practice. 

India having veered so far away from the Gandhi’s teachings it should have been possible to reject his philosophy out of hand and move on without a backward glance at an ideal that was considered impractical; or one that could not be put into effect in a land were shallowness, hypocrisy and untruthfulness have become the order of the day in public life. In which case, getting rid of the baggage of Gandhi’s legacy and getting on with the governance of the country in the non-Gandhian pattern that prevails should have been easy.

This has not been the case. At the same time that untruthfulness and venality are in full cry, the very leaders who have propelled the country in that direction have not been able to dispense with the trumpeting of Gandhi’s legacy because of a lurking fear that should it be discarded altogether India would not only have lost its way, it would have lost its soul. Then there would be no turning back. The thought of that final break, even shedding the pretence that is, troubles these people. They know that without the pretence they would not be able to face their countrymen, not at the hustings, not in public, possibly not even in private. At a deeper level they are not unaware that a final abandonment of Gandhi would be tantamount to condemning themselves to a karmic descent too horrid to contemplate. For, no matter how immoral the lot that governs the nation, in their heart of hearts they are deeply religious, albeit in a very warped sense of what their understanding of being religious should be. They also know that in India the vast majority of their countrymen revere the Mahatma and in spite of their poverty, deprivation and misery still closely adhere to the thoughts and ideals of Gandhi. For they are the ideals of Vivekananda, Sri Aurobindo and so many other sages and seers who moulded the character and destiny of India through the ages. The destiny that awaited India at midnight of 15th August 1947 has eluded the country. Beneath the despair and turmoil that afflicts the land that destiny still awaits the country. India many hope might yet produce the leaders who would take it to the pinnacle that the Mahatma and the sages before him dreamed of in their quest for global harmony. The ideal, therefore, cannot be lost sight of. The ideals of Mahatma Gandhi are far too important for the redemption of India , if it is to find its feet and its true destiny. For the very same reason it is important for the world as well.

It is necessary to go a step further. The reasons as to why when the majority of Indians believe in it and the political leaders profess to believe in it, Gandhi’s teachings have not prevailed in the country of its origin have to be gone into. The main reason could be the difficulty of transplanting the Gandhian ideal of the early 20th century. An alien dispensation that ruled the country, because of it being alien, was instrumental in uniting the country ideologically (toward freedom) in the earlier decades before independence. The circumstances that obtained post-independence after the partition of India were not the same. As the years went by - after the failed decades of socialism – leading to the market economy in most parts of the world, the implementation of those ideas became even more difficult. Firstly, as brought out earlier, the conditions had altered radically, and secondly, having moved so far away from the Gandhian philosophy and its economic derivatives it became increasingly difficult to retrace the steps. Having said that, the attempts at strengthening panchayati raj and the adherence to the principle, if not the practice, of sustainable development would qualify as a bow in the direction of Gandhi.

Meanwhile a fundamental change has taken place in the make up of the people of India and the world. Nearly sixty years after Gandhi’s death, the capitalist model and the morality that goes with it have become the norm. Even countries most staunchly opposed to it earlier have embraced it whole-heartedly, notably Russia and China . Could people of those days when Gandhi was popularizing the charkha have anything in common with Deng Xiao Peng’s famous exhortation to his countrymen that, ‘it is glorious to be rich’. If it were glorious to be rich there would be nothing left of Gandhi’s philosophy. If not the masses, at least the political class and the elites of modern India have embraced Deng’s dictum as fervently as the Chinese in Beijing , Shanghai and Guangdong ; in many cases as strongly as the Americans themselves. Whatever be the reason for this departure from socialism to capitalism, it is undeniable that going back to the economic idealism contained in Gandhi’s writings would relegate India to an economic abyss from which there would be no recovery in the world of today. May be, when consumerism that is fast overtaking the globe makes life itself unsustainable on the planet, people across the world will start reappraising the economic philosophy of Gandhi. That is why the world is not going to forget Mahatma Gandhi in a hurry. By association India , rightly or wrongly, will benefit from that grand reversal, whenever it takes place on a global scale. If India is to remain part of the global economy, without completely shedding some of the desirable aspects of its socialist past, it must start its own reappraisal for benefiting from the vision of Gandhi wherever it is possible to transform that vision on the ground under the prevailing conditions in the country and the world. If the world has to save itself from self-destruction Gandhi’s non-violence must become the leitmotif of a globalised world, and a reformed UN structure that would make non-violence between states the norm for the 21st century. The United Nations has adopted October 2, the birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi as World Harmony Day. It was possibly Mahatma Gandhi who said: ‘for my worldly needs my village is my world; for my spiritual needs the world is my village’.

   Jan 2008
  ©Vinod Saighal 

Taking the PIL Route

The decline in the quality of governance linked to the criminalisation of politics and the degeneration of the law and order machinery in the country has been forcing the public to seek redress before the courts. Where the inability of the government, regardless of its cause, to take suitable measures to safeguard the public interest affects large segments of the public or the interest of the future generations, Public Interest Litigation (PIL) has remained one of the few avenues available to stem the rot or to set things right. A number of instances can be cited were the lack of concern on the part of the government or its functionaries could have led to incalculable harm to public health, public interest or the ecological future of the country. In very many cases government apathy was seen to have resulted from vote bank politics, indifference, improper analyses, criminalisation of politics, or undue pressure from vested interests. Because the intervention of the courts often did lead to redress, the public has increasingly felt that the PIL route represents the surest and perhaps the sole option available to it to set things right.
In the light of the foregoing, the number of PILs that have come before the courts have shown considerable increase. Should the degenerative processes in government decline further it is possible that the number of PILs that come before the courts could rise exponentially. Added to the backlog of the cases already before the courts an enormous increase in the number of PILs may tend to swamp the functioning of the courts. It has also to be remembered that at any given time the number of frivolous PILs that come before the courts will also shown an increase. Therefore, there is a need to bring in a semblance of order and functional streamlining into a process that due to its very efficacy might become unwieldy or inordinately time consuming.
To ensure that the remedy available to non-governmental organisations and individuals seriously dedicating their lives to social upliftment, preservation of the environment, restoration of good governance and similar activities, which collectively add to national betterment through PILs is not diluted due to frivolous petitioning or runaway increase in numbers, a method has to be found to retain the efficacy of this recourse available to the public, without letting it get snowed under due to the unmanageable increase (in numbers). Against this background the via media approach placed for consideration of their Lordships comprises the following basic steps:
All PILs received by the highest Court in the land or any of the High Courts would be graded according to importance and urgency by a designated quasi-judicial body consisting of retired justices of the Supreme Court or High Courts and eminent lawyers / scientists / media persons or any other eminent person considered suitable by the nominating body. The body that could be named as the ‘PIL Scrutiny Committee’ (PSC) will grade the PILs into four categories. The first category, called Category A PILs, will include PILs that in the opinion of the PSC should be accorded the highest priority for consideration by the courts due to the overriding importance of the PIL in the national interest, interest of the public at large, or for the interest of future generations. The second category, or Category B PILs would be those PILs which are considered admissible on a lower priority i.e. delay in their consideration would not harm the national interest, the interest of the public at large, the interest of the coming generations or grave injustice being perpetrated. The third category, or Category C PILs would be those PILs that merit consideration, but which can be dealt with through alternative pathways (that have been spelt out further on). The fourth category or Category D PILs would be those PILs, which can be dismissed straightaway by the designated body as being frivolous or not of sufficient merit. Their consideration would unnecessarily swamp the judicial process.
The quasi-judicial body (PSC) for classification of PILs would be a five-member body, which can be set up in all states having a separate High Court. The panel of names could be chosen suo motu by a serving justice of the Supreme Court, the Chief Justice of the High Court concerned and the Law Secretary of the state in which the High Court is located. The bodies thus constituted could be nominated for a single tenure of five years each. For rejection of a PIL it would have to be approved by at least three of the five members on grounds of it being frivolous or lacking in merit. To ensure smooth functioning of the PSC, back up or stand by members could also be chosen at the time of the initial selection so that work is not held up due to illness or non-availability of a member.
As mentioned earlier, Category C PILs would be considered for alternative method of being dealt with. The alternative pathway, reduced to its essentials, means that the PSC arrives at the opinion that the PIL prima facie has merit and could, all things being equal, meet with favourable outcome if the judicial process is gone through. In all such cases, the merit of the PIL would be the determining criterion. To save time and legislative costs to all concerned, the PSC would express an opinion for consideration of the government department or the official concerned to the effect that since a preliminary examination of the PIL has revealed a high probability of the prayer being granted it would be advisable for the government department or the official body concerned to take remedial measures within a suitable time frame. If the opinion of the PSC is accepted by the government department concerned the latter would intimate its acceptance as well as the remedial measures that would be taken by the department as well as the time frame in which these would be implemented. Should, however, the government department not wish to abide by the opinion of the PSC it would have to intimate their decision of non-compliance within 90 days. In the latter case, i.e. non-compliance with the opinion of the PSC, the government department would have to bear the costs of the litigation and all reasonable expenses undertaken by the petitioner filing the PIL in the public interest.
The methodology outlined above provides a framework for streamlining the process of PIL consideration by the judiciary. It also aims to reduce the burden on the judiciary keeping in mind the time factor involved. More importantly, it puts officialdom on notice that where all reasonable indicators reveal that a PIL has merit, is in the public interest, and has high probability of being looked at favourably by the judiciary the government should streamline its own functioning in a manner that officials do not act as barriers to natural advancement and public well being merely on account of bureaucratic inertia, obduracy or sheer cussedness. Concomitantly, the public would also be made aware that there is a need to avoid frivolous or ill-considered petitioning of the courts. The recommendations made above serve as a starting point for streamlining the PIL process. Modifications and improvements can be made from time to time by all concerned from reception to adoption to institutionalization.

  Convenor, MRGG (Movement for Restoration of Good Government)
  Dec 18th 2007
  ©Vinod Saighal 


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARE ONE BILLION INDIANS REALLY THAT HELPLESS?

           A PTI release from Dibrugarh datelined November 27, 2007 stated that poachers on that day had killed a rhinoceros in the Burapahar range inside the Kajiranga National Park and escaped with its prized horn. With this, 20 highly endangered one-horned rhinos have been poached inside the park this year.

          While the populations of the subcontinent, notably India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have been multiplying like flies and rabbits the flora and fauna that had enriched India is disappearing from the map of the world at dizzying speed. Even if few tens of millions of the malnourished, low birth weight pregnancies were to be prevented, the earth would not be the poorer for it. (As it turns out over 50 percent of the births are duen to unwanted pregnancies; yet the political leaders are totally unmindful of the devastation that population proliferation in this part of the world is causing to the pitiful natural habitats that still remain). On the other hand, should the remaining pristine habitats and the fast dying out species like the tiger and the rhinos disappear the present generation would have impoverished the future generation of Indians in perpetuity. Evidently there is no time to lose. More pertinently, the Government of India and state governments have demonstrated their incapacity to protect the last vestiges of India’s most glorious heritage. In spite of central outlays and grants from various organizations the woeful tale of inadequately equipped, under-staffed and demoralized forest guards makes dismal reading. The self-same political leaders have no qualms in throwing billions upon billions of rupees on many unimaginative and wasteful schemes.

          Seeing that the government and its agencies have shown utter helplessness in stemming the destructive tide of encroachment, poaching and plundering of forest wealth, India Incorporated and the citizens of the country must step in to stop the depredation and safeguard the interest of future generations. In the first instance, FICCI, CII, ASSOCHAM, and other regional chambers must adopt the most threatened national parks and take it upon themselves to set up apex committees to oversee the security and sanctity of the national reserves. It does not mean that they will supplant the existent machinery. Their intervention will ensure that adequate equipment (including night vision devices), surveillance vehicles and fire arms are provided to supplement the existing organization. Additionally, they can hire supplementary forest guards, organized in sections and platoons, from carefully selected ex-servicemen in respective areas to provide an outer ring of security and intelligence gathering, besides physically hunting down the poachers and illicit fellers; with the same relentlessness and ferocity as the poachers and their gangs display in hunting down the hapless animals.

          India today tops the list of billionaires. It is possible for just a handful of them to personally take up the challenge and take it upon themselves to safeguard the remaining sanctuaries with the same zeal, competence and far-sightedness that they have shown in amassing their billions.

   Nov 29th 2007
  ©Vinod Saighal 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                

An Agenda for the Resurrection of Pakistan

                                                                by

                                                        Vinod Saighal*

Pakistan : L'armée emprisonne les démocrates et libère les terrorists (the army imprisons the proponents of democracy and releases the terrorists)

- from a recent article appearing in Le Nouvel Observateur, Paris.

The Grand Delusion

It is fairly apparent from the recent happenings in Pakistan and the statements of the power players that the country is headed for a vertiginous decline. Should it be the desire, if not the design, of those in a position to influence events in Pakistan to make the country implode, then many of them are going about it the right way. ‘Many of them’ includes: General Pervez Musharraf; the Pakistan Army and its creation the radical elements; the leaders of the political parties; the sundry influence-peddlers in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore and Karachi; the handlers in USA, Saudi Arabia and UK; and all others deeply mired in the affairs of Pakistan. At this point in time, i.e., after the declaration of the emergency, the single point refrain seems to be the holding of elections as early as possible; the reform agenda also includes: Gen. Musharraf shedding his uniform, restoration of the independence of the judiciary, and freedom of the press.

Both the civil society and the opponents of Pervez Musharraf’s high handedness outside Pakistan would generally be satisfied if the  conditions mentioned above were to be met. They hope that sooner rather than later the Pakistan Army will move decisively against Taliban-Al Qaeda, who seem to be extending their sway beyond FATA with relative ease. While the so-called minimum demands for resurrecting Pakistan from its terminal decline seem eminently sensible on paper the reality on the ground is at variance from the pious hopes grafted on to them for restoration of normalcy.

            Should elections, however, be held in the shortened time frame as demanded by practically everybody the turmoil after the elections could deepen the fissures and lead to greater mayhem than is presently the case. Under the emergency decree and the new powers conferred upon the army to try civilians in military courts the chances of elections being free and fair are virtually zero. The agency that has been schooled to manage elections in Pakistan and which has embedded itself deeply in the election process over several decades is the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan aided and abetted by the Military Intelligence (MI)  and not the Election Commission - at least not as presently constituted. It is this agency (the ISI) that has been responsible for overseeing the phenomenal rise of the radical parties in the national and state assemblies, two of which, NWFP and Balochistan, have virtually gone under the sway of the pro-Taliban tanzeems. Again, it is the ISI that has been in the forefront of raising one political leader at the cost of the other, and vice versa, when it suited the military regime to do so. It would hardly be an exaggeration to state that clandestinely the ISI has virtually taken over the functions of the electoral bodies of Pakistan . Therefore, holding elections in the present circumstances will see the virtual extinguishment of the last ray of hope for restoring democracy in Pakistan and for preventing the country from becoming a failed state. Should the United States persist in backing Pervez Musharraf, it could lose whatever little goodwill that it still retains in Pakistan . By arresting thousands of persons, largely from those sections of civil society unequivocally opposed to the Taliban, Musharraf has further strengthened the radicals; something he has been doing all along.  

The Prime Backers of Pakistan take up the Challenge

            The principal backers of Pakistan since its inception have been the USA , UK and Saudi Arabia . The influence that the USA and Saudi Arabia wield is not limited to the military; it extends to the mainstream political class as well as the commercial sectors that underpin the Pakistan economy. Without the financial assistance (or doles) from these two countries Pakistan would not only become a basket case, it would simply go under.

    The functioning of the country has been so comprehensively undermined in the Musharraf years that the chances of warding off the challenge of the radical Islamists and restoring a semblance of normality seem remote. Today the only elements, besides the discredited and demoralized army, that are organized and poised to benefit from the worsening situation are the Jihadis (who are already moving out from their FATA strongholds into the adjoining areas in NWFP and Baluchistan , even Islamabad ) and the MQM in Karachi . The rogue elements of the Inter Services Intelligence are also spreading their tentacles further at an equally fast pace. In sum, at the rate at which it is going the state of Pakistan is well on the road to implosion.

            The situation cannot be retrieved by half-hearted measures. The USA and Saudi Arabia , supported by UK , Japan and the EU have to join hands to virtually administer a second ultimatum on the lines of post-9/11 ultimatum issued by the Americans to General Musharraf: “either you are with us, or be prepared to face the consequences”. The second ultimatum to be administered jointly by USA and Saudi Arabia should be administered to the top generals of Pakistan who support the Musharraf emergency as well as to the leaders of the mainstream political parties. Musharraf’s days are numbered. He is no longer the prime mover; power has already slipped out of his hand. In or out of uniform the General has now become a liability to the Pakistan Army, his foreign backers (notably the George W. Bush administration), as well as to the Pakistani nation. Once the ultimatum has been administered Pervez Musharraf can be removed in a jiffy. He has no fallback, other than to re-align with the jihadists.

Key Elements for the Resurrection of Pakistan 

            The ultimatum would be in the form of key elements for the resurrection of Pakistan . These will include, inter alia:

-         The removal of Pervez Musharraf from the scene and asylum (for him) in Saudi Arabia , USA or country of his choice.

-         The nomination of an interim President for Pakistan till a new president is elected after the holding of elections. The selection of an Interim President (excluding any person in uniform) would be based on a collegiate decision. The collegium for the purpose would comprise: nominee of the army; representatives of the mainstream political parties, three respected civilians (like Pervez Hoodbhoy), three respected former justices of the Supreme Court who were not party to any military ordinance or confirmation of military take-overs in the past. The collegium would be asked to choose a suitable person within 15 days of its constitution. Representatives from the US and Saudi governments would remain at hand to oversee the process. Once selected the interim president would be administered the oath of office by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court in accordance with the 1973 Constitution. On assuming the office of the President the interim incumbent would issue a notification annulling all decrees issued by President Pervez Musharraf (or earlier by General Zia ul Haq) that could be deemed to be repugnant to the spirit of holding free and fair elections and the restoration of democracy. Provided that Pervez Musharraf demits office gracefully and sheds his uniform by the given date he would be given immunity from prosecution for all sins of omission or commission for the period of his take-over in 1999 up to the date of stepping down. The interim president would also restore the Supreme Court to its full bench under Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, as it existed immediately prior to the recent Emergency hastily proclaimed by Gen. Musharraf in early November 2007.  

-         On Musharraf’s demitting office and shedding his uniform (he could do so gracefully or be kicked out) the vice-chief of the Pakistan Army, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani would take over as the Chief of the Army Staff. He would require at least 60 to 75 days to carry out the following urgent tasks: gradually ready the army to revert to its professional role and de-induct it from non-army duties; revitalize the army to first check the march of the jihadists and then restore the status quo ante in NWFP and, at a later stage, in the FATA; deploy specially selected units in sufficient strength to ensure that when elections are held in NWFP and Baluchistan the radicals who have dug in owing to their legislative gains in the provincial assemblies in the previous elections under the Musharraf dispensation are not able to intimidate voters or derive unfair advantage from rules that were promulgated to favour the Islamists.

-         The most urgent task of the new COAS would be to resolutely withdraw the ISI from its insidious role in the politics of Pakistan and to ensure zero interference in the elections.

-         The interim president, in consultation with the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and the leaders of the mainstream political parties, would nominate an interim prime minister for the holding of elections as well an Election Commissioner with four independent election commissioners.

-         The new Election Commission would be given 75 days to prepare fresh electoral roles and weed out undesirable (or partisan elements) at the lower levels prior to holding fresh elections. The COAS would guarantee the protection and untrammeled functioning of the new election commission.

-         The new election commission, after assessing the ground situation would announce the dates for holding elections and the period for which active political activity would be allowed to the political parties in the run up to the elections. The election commission – its neutrality having been established – would have full powers to weed out all candidates with criminal background, provided that such removal would have the endorsement of at least four out of the five election commissioners. In the case of leaders of political parties, any such adverse decision could be appealed at the level of the Supreme Court.

-         The mainstream political parties to give a written undertaking that for electoral gains they would not align themselves with radical elements, nor would they give them tickets under any other guise.

-     Finally, the interim president would ensure that the press and the electronic media enjoy the freedoms that are guaranteed to them in democracies.

Pervez Musharraf is a spent force. The chaos that has been allowed to descend upon Pakistan provides an historic opportunity to USA and Saudi Arabia and all well-wishers of Pakistan, within and without, to truly, once and for all, pull the country out of the morass into which army interference and misgovernance have pushed it. Pakistan's main allies, USA and Saudi Arabia will be the biggest beneficiaries. The Army having seen its prestige plummet disastrously would also welcome an escape route to return to professionalism without losing face. An outline agenda for the irrevocable restoration of democracy and, more importantly, for preventing Pakistan from becoming a failed state or coming under the sway of radicalized Islamists has been spelled out. The agenda so outlined is not rigid or inflexible. It is amenable to sensible modifications at every stage as the irreversible march toward the democratization of Pakistan and its resurrection as a responsible member of the comity of nations is put into motion.                 

Nov 16th 2007
©Vinod Saighal 


Are Pakistani Generals  really Mad or do they merely Feign Insanity - The Consequences Thereof

    "Pak Army planned 'use of N-arms" during the Kargil War" is a sample title of the news item carried by many national dailes on October 29, 2007. The item has been excerpted from the book, United States and the Global Nuclear Conspiracy

by investigative journalists Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark. They cite a conversation between President Bill Clinton and the Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif eight years ago when they met at Blair House in July 1999. There had been earlier instances as well where Pakistani generals came rather close to pulling the nuclear trigger according to reports that emanated from knowledgeable sources. On occasions Pakistani generals themselves have taken positions at international forums that indicated the nuclear brinkmanship on the part of the generals in power.

    In the extreme volatility that obtains post-9/11 in and around Pakistan, considered by many to be the epicentre of Islamist radicalism, what should the world make of these disclosures. More importantly, what should the people of Pakistan make of the revelations that do not leave much doubt, especially based on past record, that under the sway of the military their nation is seldom far from further break up, or national suicide. For, whatever might have been the other shortcomings of the now discredited civilian prime ministers following the Zia-ul Haq era they certainly did not indulge in the type of brinkmanship that brought disaster to Pakistan on more than one occasion. Making light of the destiny of Pakistan has remained the forte of Pakistani generals. 

    What is more, the nuclear brinkmanship, that only Pakistani generals are capable of, could have resulted in the total destruction of Pakistan. India, committed to No-First-Use of nuclear weapons has not left Pakistani military planners in any doubt that having come under self-induced vulnerability due to N-F-U, it would have no choice but to go in for massive retaliation should Pakistan choose to exercise the nuclear option. In MAD terms it means that whereas India would suffer unimaginable horrors that, inter alia, might push India back economically by several decades, the nation of Pakistan, as presently constituted, could well disappear from the map of the world on account of its geographical size and population concentrations, especially in the Punjab. In fact, India would not even be required to target the other provinces of Pakistan, seeking deliverance from the Punjabi yoke. In as far as it concerns the radical Islamists, whose WMD targetting, by whatever means, would be directed against the West rather than India, they are fully alive to the fact that a WMD exchange with India would sizeably reduce the Muslim population of the world. In addition to the casualties within Pakistan brought on by Indian retaliatory action a few tens of million Muslims in India could also become casualties due to the Pakistani actions, i.e., the Muslim ummat gets hit both ways through no fault of theirs, merely because Pakistan remains a state run by the military-jehadi combine, whatever the innocent disclaimers from time to time at the apex of the Pakistan military hierarchy. 

    China, the all-weather friend of Pakistan,  is no friend of the ordinary people of Pakistan, if looked at objectively. The atheist communist dispensation that runs China is more comfortable with the non-democratic military dispensation in Pakistan. Casualties numbering in the millions have never disturbed the sleep of autocratic regimes anywhere in the world. The Chinese have nearly settled their problems in the outlying western provinces occupied by them after the Maoist take-over through genocide in Xiniang and Tibet. They have assisted Pakistan to become a nuclear power not out of deep friendship for the Muslims of that country. Pakistan has been set up as a formidable adversary against India to serve China's geostrategic interests in the subcontinent and the adjoining regions. The latter would not be overly upset by a full-scale exchange between Pakistan and India so that India is reduced to a third-rate economic power rather than a future competitor to China's economic might. That is why they have helped Pakistan with missile technologies that augment the range to target Bangalore and the Indian IT hubs. In the bargain, should Pakistan simply go under, just too bad.

    In the light of the above the people of Pakistan have to wake up from their military-induced somnolence to retrieve the destiny of their country - and their place in the sun - from the military and the mullahs before it becomes too late. The question of another war between the nations of the subcontinent should simply not arise.

OCT 31st 2007
©Vinod Saighal



Inducing Judicial Activism (Or Having Their Cake & Eating it Too)

 "Justice being taken away, what is State, but a band of robbers". St. Augustine          

 Of late there has been a fair amount of debate on 'Judicial Activism", some of it informed, much of it less well informed. Judicial Activism should not be looked at in standalone fashion. It has to be viewed against the backdrop of the vertiginous decline in the probity and conduct of the political class across the political spectrum - at the Centre as well as in the States. In fact, if one were to take a sounding as to which class the people of India dislike the most, it would hardly come as a surprise if the political class were to emerge as the most despised lot. That the judiciary itself has lost much of its lustre can hardly be cause for comfort for those looking up to the Courts.

      Attention is first of all invited to excerpts from a talk given on 2nd August 2006 to a distinguished audience on a theme relating to national security, good governance, jurisprudence and allied aspects:

    "Therefore, if one takes the line of thinking opened up by the Honorable Supreme Court to its logical conclusion one comes up with the dreadful deduction that today the biggest threat to the security of India might be the political class, full 20 percent of whose members happen to have criminal cases registered against them. If the percentage as given out by the Election Commission is right then the criminal class that has entered Parliament is perhaps one of the single largest blocks, although affiliated to political parties across the political divide.

     Leaving the rest of the country to fend for itself the political class cocoons itself in the security provided by gun-toting bodyguards paid for by the exchequer, irrespective of whether the persons so protected have a number of murder, dacoity or rape cases pending against them. …………… In all other countries the political class comes together in the face of national emergencies. In India they come together to undermine the decisions of the highest judicial bodies in the country. In no other country in the world are the decisions of the Supreme Court  - the final arbiter - overturned or thwarted as summarily as is presently happening in India".

            It is against this background that the debate on judicial activism should be entered. A distinguished (former) governor of the Reserve Bank of India had opined that it had been his experience that a large number of decisions at the highest levels of governance had not been taken in the national interest, but in the interests of the political parties, vested interests, or other such considerations (that did not augur well for the country)”. (Unquote)   

The abysmal lot of a large percentage of India’s population is there for all to see. Looking at India’s future in the face of the fast emerging global threats, what has the government done to meet these challenges? A few well-documented and incontrovertible examples highlight the national decline. The Government of India and the state governments have demonstrated their complete inability to save the flora and fauna of India – the forests are being decimated at an increasing rate; they have been poached routinely for over 50 years. In spite of spending thousands of crores of rupees the pollution levels in the Ganga and theYamuna might actually have gone up. These two rivers systems are famous for a variety of reasons. Should similar surveys be undertaken for many other waterways and water bodies the state of decline would be seen to be far worse. If left to the political class the national capital would be in shambles in less than a decade. One can go on in this vein indefinitely to show that laws are being flouted with greater and greater impunity, mostly by the legislators and people at the helm of affairs.  Law and order as understood in civilized society have virtually disappeared for the common man. As if the burdens of the aam admi were not already beyond his capacity to bear the politicians add to his woes by repeated bandhs that are a nightmare for the daily wage earner. Equality before the law is more in the breach than in practice. And yet the state governments who are the biggest offenders in this regard appear to be showing extreme reluctance to usher in the changes in police functioning as directed by the Supreme Court. It is incomprehensible that full 60 years after Independence the Government of India has not yet thought fit to amend the Police Act, a relic of the colonial regime that dates back to 1861.

            In this sea of dreariness and despair the higher judiciary has held out some hope for the people of India. If terminal decline has been arrested in certain areas of governance it is due to the yeoman service provided by the higher judiciary - in spite of glaring lapses in the past – and the Election Commission of India. They remain beacons of hope for India; and for many other countries that have started looking towards India. There should be no doubt in the mind of the political class that the public at large overwhelmingly supports most of the judicial interventions undertaken in recent years at the highest levels. It is certainly not in the long-term interest of Indian democracy that the judiciary be brought into ridicule by all and sundry, especially the political class.  

             Many of the political actions and decisions fall so patently foul of the tenets of the Constitution or the working of the constitution even under the degraded norms now prevalent in the running of the government that the courts have no choice but to step in. A few examples will suffice:

  • A chief minister of a state decides to give land rights to tribals without waiting for notification of the revised bill by the government at the centre. Needless to say that over and above the fact that the rules have yet to be communicated, the said legislation might itself be challenged in the highest court;
  • Enactment by state governments of reservations on the basis of religion in clear contravention of the framework of the constitution in this regard.

  Other examples can be cited where political parties when in power go ahead with outrageous enactments, or promises of enactments if voted to power, knowing full well that the courts would have no choice but to strike them down. In all such cases the political leadership unmindful of the long-term consequences of their decisions for coming generations or the national interest do so in full knowledge of the illegality or non-maintainability of their actions; being clear in their minds that the courts would strike them down. Vote bank politics at the cost of the national interest and, at times, the ecological well-being of coming generations is fast becoming the rule rather than the exception. By indulging in malpractices of this nature the political parties have found the way to eating their cake and having it too. By these means they not only provoke the courts to become judicially active to safeguard the constitution or the interest of the country as a whole, the politicians go a step further and denigrate the judicial intervention so induced; and thereby pretend to show themselves to be the champions of the narrow interests whom they wish to appease, placate, or simply to perpetuate their vote banks. Slowly, but surely, the governments (at the Centre and the States) are divesting themselves of the capacity to govern, thus forcing the judiciary to take up the slack in the face of the formers’ pusillanimity or partisanship.

The political class should sit back and take another look inwards, while they have the freedom to do so. By ganging up to undermine the judiciary they are on a path beset with great dangers. It is because of the benignity of the judiciary while dealing with cases of politicians at the highest levels that they continue to enjoy their freedom and ill-gotten gains. Should they willfully shake the edifice they could end up being the worst sufferers.

Oct 10th 2007
©Vinod Saighal




-

--------------------------------------------------------------


Why Kiran Bedi could not have become the Police Commissioner of Delhi
People are generally at a loss to understand as to why the Magsaysay Award winner, Dr. Kiran Bedi, being the senior-most as well as the most qualified person in her cadre did not become the Commissioner of Delhi Police on the completion of tenure of the former incumbent. As it turns out, Mr. Y.S. Dadwal, who happens to be two years her junior, has been nominated to the post. Mr. Dadwal is a high profile police officer with an admirable police record. Seeing his background, it is well on the cards that he might turn out to be a very effective police commissioner. The issue here is not about Mr. Dadwal’s impeccable record. The question, or the controversy generated, relates to the denial of the top slot to Kiran Bedi whose own record is second to none in the entire police force. Herein lies the rub. Unless there are compelling political reasons, seniority is generally not given the go by; and certainly not for a high profile person like Kiran Bedi whose competence has been acknowledged in India and abroad. It led to her being appointed advisor to the former UN Secretary General, Mr. Kofi A. Annan. Why then was Kiran Bedi denied the post of the Delhi Police Commissioner by the powers that be, knowing full well that the decision would create avoidable controversy, heartburning and criticism?

To put it succinctly, the inexplicable government decision can be attributed to the 'Kalam effect'. Here was a brilliant, non-controversial, self-effacing, supposedly pliable, scientist whom the political class elevated to the office of the President. What does he end up doing. In just one tenure - no wonder they denied him a second one - he outshines the political class. His popularity with the Indian public has assumed such proportions that it overshadows the political stalwarts across party lines. In a direct election or referendum they would be relegated to being mere also-rans. The government, or for that matter the political class, is not going to repeat the earlier mistake; at least not so soon after Dr. Kalam's departure from Rashtrapati Bhavan.

With her proven competence, had Kiran Bedi been made the Police Commissioner of Delhi she would have electrified Delhi by the positive changes that she would have brought in. A no-nonsense police officer with amazing resilience and inner strength, she would not have spared the political offenders or the land mafias that have taken control of the city. What is more, with the Commonwealth Games coming to Delhi in the near future, she would have been the cynosure of all eyes, especially the media - Indian as well as foreign. In the process the lady would have outshone and outperformed the two ladies who rule the roost - in Delhi and the political apex in India. Kiran Bedi would have taken the Kalam legacy several notches higher. She would have been a hands on person - a spell-binding speaker as well as a doer. Hers would not have been a ceremonial post. What is more, after retirement she might have been induced to enter the political mainstream - horrible thought for power coteries and political fiefdoms. Bedi would have represented a refreshing change. The politicians have denied Bedi her due. She might still turn out to be their nemesis. Should she go that way, India would certainly be behind her, as it was behind Dr A P J Abdul Kalam, former President of India.

Meanwhile, the political class has given itself a breather. The loss is that of Delhi and its citizens.


July 26th 2007
©Vinod Saighal
--------------------------------------------------------------

A Critique of the Military Dimension of South Asian Security
(Extract from Chapter 1 - Footnote to the main text on Page 56):
The Pakistan establishment has been so intimately involved with the terrorist organizations nurtured by them for so long that disengagement, even it were to be finally mandated by the military top brass would be difficult, if not impossible. During an interview given to a news channel, Star TV in early 2002 on the heels of the press conference by the then Indian army chief, this author had stated inter alia that while it might be true that through its proxy war or Low Intensity Conflict Pakistan was pursuing its strategy of bleeding the Indian army by a thousand cuts, seeing the size of India and the Indian army these were all flesh wounds to which salve could be applied. In the process Pakistan was haemorrhaging internally, a potentially fatal condition. Schisms have further developed amongst the terrorist organizations based in Pakistan between those that continue to enjoy support from Pakistan’s ISI and those considered beyond the pale. However, quite a few of the prominent terrorist groups that are close to or remain substantially controlled by the ISI have large number of cadres deeply sympathetic to Al-Qaeda and its affiliates, regardless of their leadership’s perceived closeness with their military and ISI handlers. These elements have been suspected of moonlighting for the more radical groups opposed to the policies of the military regime.
In the light of the foregoing, the author in a BBC interview in London on 16 September 2003 had questioned the wisdom of the Western world putting all its eggs in the basket of the military dictator of Pakistan.

July 20th 2007
©Vinod Saighal
--------------------------------------------------------------

INDIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2007 - REDUCED TO A ZERO SUM GAME
(Addressed to All Indians Who Can Feel, See, Hear and Who Care)

That the downslide in the Indian polity, which has been going on for many years, is fast reaching its nadir is borne out by the manner in which the selection of the President has been conducted by the political class and, furthermore, the style in which electioneering is being orchestrated. A quick glance first at the selection procedure.

The Selectors Cabal
- The Ruling Party. Not more than half-a-dozen people who call the shots, all vying with each other to show their loyalty to the dynasty; are rewarded accordingly. The present head of the dynasty having already reduced the stature of the Prime Minister to its lowest point since Independence would now like to create a similar dependency in the Rashtrapati Bhawan. Concern for the national interest or the dignity of the highest office was never a consideration. To quote the media, the ultimate choice, where due diligence evidently had not taken place, was the lowest common denominator in the search for consensus within the UPA.
- The UPA (or the governing coalition). The coalition partners were generally willing to follow the ruling Congress provided there were to be a consensus within the UPA. The major wreckers of the consensus within UPA were the Left parties led by the CPM.
- The Left Parties. The principal wreckers who have ceaselessly undermined government consensus on practically every major issue. Again the decision-making cabal comprised less than six people.
- The Principal Opposition Party. One point agenda to try and foist a person most suited to their right wing ideology. The cabal at the top comprising doddering old leaders of yesteryear who simply will not let younger people come up to revive the decline in the party. Their own fossilisation resulted in the selection of a candidate who is older than their tired selves.
- The leader of the BSP. Reaches agreement with the Congress leader on mutually beneficial considerations (well documented by the media). Neither leader interested in a person of eminence and integrrity becoming the President.
- The Other Political Parties (collectively calling themselves the Third Front). A motley group; the less said about their concern for dignity,decorum or concern for the national interest the better.
- Common to all the political parties (mentioned above). Zero inner party democracy or consultation with the rank and file. No concern for what the people of India are saying or feel about the nationally humiliating political machinations.
- The Present Incumbent. Had won the respect of the nation. Was immensely popular. Could have gone out in a blaze of glory. At the end of the day slipped from the pedestal and barely remained standing. His predecessor, another respected figure who had conducted himself with dignity throughtout his presidential tenure fell from grace under exactly similar circumstances.

We The People of India (The Largest Democracy in the World). Had absolutely no role to play in the selection process. The political class was and remains totally immune to the voice of the overwhelming law-abiding, non-agitating, non-rabble rousing majority. Technically, since the party cabals have taken over, the people of India, at this stage of the election, are as removed from the process of electing the president as would be an astronaut sitting on the moon watching the process without in any way being able to affect it. In other words just about thirty people (the cabalists), perhaps each one having several skeletons in his or her cupboard, and many of whom are known to have subverted and continue to subvert the legal process, will decide the outcome, completely disregarding the views of one billion plus Indians. Reduced to its essentials this is the stark reality which the people of India, the Election Commission and the Courts must face. The system worked reasonably well the way it was designed when the legislators who form the Electoral College were people of standing and when such a large percentage of them were not criminals, bootleggers, mafia dons, tax-dodgers, smugglers of people, currency, goods and the like. Evidently, something needs to be done before the next presidential election.

NOW COMING TO THE MEDIA
The very manner of choosing the candidates selected by the political cabal was such that everybody was kept guessing till almost the very end. It might have been deliberate, or there might have been other reasons, including the difficulty of arriving at a consensus. Therefore, due diligence about the candidates could not be carried out - an essential exercise in any democracy for the persons likely to occupy the highest office in the country. It resulted in the media trying to dig up every bit of dirt on the candidate most likely to carrry the day - in this case, as things stand, Mrs. Pratibha Patil. To tabulate the accusations, or besmirchment attempts to date by the opposition politicians and the media and other interested parties, these have been described as:
- She felt that the time had come to remove the veil. She quoted or misquoted or partially quoted historical texts. The result: the main proposer the Congress Party felt embarrassed. Muslim clergy were quick to take offence. Mrs Patil tried to cover her confusion.
- Mrs Patil, while a minister in the State government was a strong votary of population stabilisation. She is supposed to have said that, "those who objected on grounds of religion should be ignored, because the need of the hour (according to her) was family planning, it being the highest religion (of prime importance) for India. She has been pilloried on this score as well.
- Activities related to her Trust that cannot stand scrutiny. They show her in very poor light.
- She believes in spirits, having attended the session that was run by the Brahmakumaris in Mt. Abu.

Comments of Citizens not party to media denigration, exposures or partisan politics.
- Mrs. Patil would actually be congratulated by most non-partisan Indians for having taken the lead in saying that the time has come for the women of India to be emancipated. That is the essence of her comment, even if the historical context can be questioned. The fact is that the objections have generally come from the hardliners, the Muslim clergy and opposition members. Who has bothered to take a sounding of how the veiled and oppressed women, often treated as chattel, actually feel about Mrs. Patil's statement?
- Family Planning. Mrs. Patil should get full marks if she made that statement and if she still holds those views. It is the prime concern for India, which most politicians have shied away from. India has one of the highest low birth weight indices in the world. Malnourished, mentally retarded children can be seen in practically every slum and bustee in the country. The majority of the women in the slums do not want so many children. Most of them simply keep coming, because of the nightly onslaught of the drunken male, and because family planning facilities have not reached them.
- She believes in spirits or mediums. What a travesty of facts. She attended a session where thousands others were present. On coming out she was confronted by the media and perhaps did not want to offend the people who invited her or did not know how her remarks would be construed. Whatever her inner feelings or beliefs, is she not entitled to them? Incidentally, the organisation that invited her at Mt. Abu is accredited to the United Nations and had been invited to set up their representation in New York. Mr. Kofi Annan, the previous Secretary General is known to have showered praise on them. Before the last general election that brought the Congress Party to power, its leader visited Mt. Abu to meet the same Dadis. President Kalam and some of the most eminent people from around the world who have had interaction with the Brahmakumaris have been very effusive in their praise. Hardly anybody who comes into contact with the Dadis, many in their eighties, can fail to be impressed by their humaneness, childlike purity and spirituality. Their dedication has allowed the organisation to set up thousands of centres in over 90 countries. So much for mischievous media comments.
- The way her Trust was run leaves much to be desired. This is indeed a very serious allegation. If proved, should in normal circumstances lead to her opting out of the race.
All things being equal and seeing that practically all politicians of today (barring a handul of honourable exceptions) have many more skeletons in their cupboard and are party to illegalities of far more serious nature if investigated, or allowed to be investigated, the question that should be uppermost is, "seeing that there are only two serious contenders left in the fray, how far should the media go in continuously denigrating the lady, who all things said and done, has a very dignified bearing, and who for her entire political life has comported herself with dignity and decorum, something that is alien to most of our politicians today". Because if the process is carried too far and in the process she is pulverised to a degree that there is no respect left for the person how will she be able to discharge her presidential duties in the years to come. It being probable that she is the candidate most likely to succeed a thought should be given to this aspect by the media. Meanwhile, the people of India have to find a way out of the political mire into which a reasonable electoral system has now been pushed. Will this become the norm or is there a way out?

June 27th 2007
©Vinod Saighal
--------------------------------------------------------------


The Indian President – NOT Exactly a Rubber Stamp
Seeing the interest generated in the forthcoming Presidential election, additional inputs based on the queries raised after the earlier piece on the subject are appended below. Media debates by constitutional experts and political figures have tended to concentrate on the composition of the electoral college and the horse-trading for a consensus candidate. It is proving illusive. Evidently, the party which has the greatest say in the UPA is keen on sponsoring a nominee who is considered a party loyalist, more appropriately a loyalist of the coterie running the political party. (Needless to say that one of the bigger failings of Indian democracy has been the lack of inner party democracy).

For the first few decades after independence the office of the president remained non-controversial and largely ceremonial, owing to the comfortable majority enjoyed by the Congress party that produced several illustrious prime ministers. Pt. Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi his daughter, and Lal Bahadur Shashtri, the prime minister during the 1965 Indo-Pakistan war, who died in Tashkent, are all respected figures of the post-independence political pantheon. The prime ministers of the day generally called the shots and the presidents simply went along. At least there were seldom any major tremors. The office of the president grew in importance and stature after the Emergency declared by prime minister Indira Gandhi consequent to an adverse judgment against her by the Allahabad High Court. Political analysts are fairly unanimous that Emergency, under the prevailing circumstances, could only have been declared by a rubber stamp president personally beholden to Indira Gandhi giving his assent. All occupants of the Rashtrapati Bhawan, thereafter, were mindful of the universal opprobrium heaped on the hapless incumbent who had signed the Emergency decree.

When Indira Gandhi came back to power a second time she sponsored Giani Zail Singh, a former chief minister of Punjab and home minister in the central cabinet, to the post of the president. The electoral college went along. Giani Zail Singh did not ruffle any feathers till Mrs.Gandhi was alive, in spite of the fact that she had ordered operation Blue Star and sent in the Indian army to flush out the Sikh extremists holding out in the Golden Temple in Amritsar. After Mrs. Indira Gandhi’s assassination Giani Zail Singh immediately swore in Rajiv Gandhi, her son as the prime minister, although the Congress Working Committee (CWC) had not met up to that time to select a new leader. Mr. Zail Singh thus paid his due as a Gandhi family loyalist. It turned out to be his last act of subservience.

As the years went by under the premiership of Rajiv Gandhi, Giani Zail Singh became more and more assertive. He withheld assent to the controversial Postal Bill. It lapsed. What is more interesting from the point of view of the residual powers of the president was the rumour that swept the political circles after the Bofors controversy blew up in Rajiv Gandhi’s face, to the effect that the president was seriously considering dismissing the Rajiv Gandhi government and calling fresh elections. The situation became so tense that the Rajiv Gandhi government started closely monitoring every move of President Zail Singh, lest he go ahead with the controversial move. There is no evidence on record, however, that Mr. Zail Singh was indeed contemplating such an action and as to what the constitutional ramifications of that move would have been. That Mr. Rajiv Gandhi was on tenterhooks for a given period of time can almost be taken as a fact.
President APJ Abdul Kalam though a political novice, which showed in some of his decisions, became a highly popular president. The non-political person won deep respect and admiration from the people of India. If it had been the people’s choice he would have easily won a second term.
Dr. Kalam, had he stood his ground, could have incommoded the Manmohan Singh government on several occasions, most notably the dissolution of the Bihar State Assembly to which he recorded his assent at some unearthly hour during a state visit abroad. Later on, when the case went to the Supreme Court, the Supreme Court overturned the government decision, although not restoring the status quo ante. Fresh elections followed the Supreme Court ruling. The Nitish Kumar coalition won a clear majority. The Bihar political earthquake could be deemed to be the forerunner of the political earthquake that took place in the recent UP elections. Mayawati’s BSP also won a clear majority.
Based on the Supreme Court decision in the Bihar Assembly dissolution case some of the flak came Dr. Kalam’s way. He passed off his hasty decision as part of what he termed his “learning curve”. It becomes a clear case of the leeway that the president has in exercising his discretion.
Another case in point is the controversial Office of Profit Bill - a post facto justification to cover political wrongdoing. Had President Kalam withheld his final assent, or delayed it inordinately, it could conceivably have led to the fall or break up of the UPA government.
That the president is an important player in the era of coalition governments becomes clear from the quest of every major political party to nominate a person who would be favourable to them, thereby virtually debasing the highest office in the land and dealing a further blow to the Constitution. Such are the discretionary powers that vest with the president in the case of hung parliaments - i.e., when no party has a clear majority - that the person whom the President invites to form a government and, more importantly, the time given to that person (party) to test a governing majority on the floor of the house become crucial factors in deciding as to who and which party would form the government.

Going a step further, the President has the power, as brought out earlier, to give assent or withhold assent to an enactment of the parliament before it becomes law. After sending back a bill to parliament for its reconsideration the president is obliged to accord consent, irrespective of whether the observations made have been addressed or not. However, no time limit is set in the Constitution for the president to sign a bill when consent is withheld.

The president plays an important role in many other cases. To list just a few: the president can query the government on the name(s) of justices for the highest court sent for his approval. The same is the case with the selection of governors of states. The governments of the day might yet force the issue, but the very fact of the President having indicated his disapprobation is taken serious note of by the public and the media, often much to the acute embarrassment of the government.

The President is considered, by virtue of his office, to be the guarantor of the independent functioning of constitutional bodies like the Election Commission. The president can also make a reference to the Supreme Court when in doubt about the constitutional legality of any bill sent to him for his assent.

In the light of the foregoing the exercise being undertaken by the political parties to elect a person to the highest office, who in their opinion would safeguard their pary's interest, is an exercise which indicates the pernicious influences that have come to the fore. It questions the democratic credentials of the political parties, more so the persons at the helm responsible for lack of inner party democracy.

To sum up: while the President may be in a position to rock the boat or influence mid-course corrections, the incumbent in the Rashtrapati Bhavan is constitutionally not in a position to pilot the boat.

(Information relating to books can be accessed from: www.vinodsaighal.com & www.amazon.com)

New Delhi
June 14th 2007
©Vinod Saighal

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Revitalised Ganga Action Plan

(PRESENTATION MADE ON BEHALF OF THE ECO MONITORS SOCIETY AT THE ECO REVIVAL SUMMIT 98 ON 9th NOVEMBER 1998 AT THE INDIA INTERNATIONAL CENTRE, NEW DELHI).

Well over a decade ago a youthful Prime Minister fired the imagination of the nation by outlining his vision for the purification of the Ganga. Unfortunately, despite huge outlays, there is very little to show for it on the ground. The dream of the former Prime Minister lies as shattered as lay his body after the assassination, before his cremation. Should we then give a decent burial to the Ganga Action Plan as well. We don't think so. As much as the Himalayas, the River Ganges embodies the very core of India's civilisational continuity and its quintessential spiritual flow - past, present and future. From the mists of antiquity, when the first great Rishis meditated on its banks, to the eternality of mankind's quest in the millennia to follow the Ganga has to retain its purity for the millions who come to worship on its sacred banks - at a myriad sanctified places along the course of "Ganga Mayya".

To revitalise the turgid Ganga Action Plan we recommend the setting up of a national task force, freed from all political and bureaucratic control, along the following lines:

Ø The national task force (NTF) to be constituted by an enactment of Parliament or under a directive by the Supreme Court of India or by any other means which would guarantee the independent functioning and efficacy of the programme.

Ø The NTF to be headed by any person of outstanding ability. Suitable guidelines to be incorporated in the initial enactment for ensuring the impartiality of the selection as well as the competence of the person selected to carry out the mandate.

Ø The allocation for the Action Plan to be made directly by the Planning Commission to the NTF.

Ø The NTF to have an accompanying special court or an empowered tribunal to ruthlessly eliminate all obstructions to the speedy implementation of the Action Plan. No subordinate authority in any of the States would have the power to interfere with, question, or stay the progress of the Action Plan.

Ø The NTF would be empowered to requisition the services of any qualified personnel of the Central or State governments for periods of time determined by the apex body of the NTF. In like manner, the NTF would have lien on any law and order forces of the Central or State governments for ensuring compliance with the decisions of the NTF and/or the empowered tribunal headed by a serving or retired Justice of the Supreme Court.

Ø Guidelines for the standards of purity, beautification and ecotone restoration to be attained, as well as the time frames in which these are to be attained would be laid down at the time of establishing the NTF.

The key ingredients of the revitalised Ganga Action Plan have been highlighted. Sensible modifications and mid-term corrections for the scheme could be carried out from time to time as the scheme progresses. It is possible to concomitantly set up national task forces along similar lines for some of the other major river systems on the subcontinent. The methodology recommends itself for application for long term flood control measures on a subcontinental or interstate basis.

It must be kept in mind, however, that the setting up of the NTF for the Ganga Action Plan and other task forces of a similar nature must, from their very inception, have a proviso for winding up of the task forces within stipulated time frames. Failing which, the country will be saddled with one more massive bureaucracy which would add further deadweight to the leviathan already crippling the country's growth. A contract-based, performance-oriented Action Plan, which would automatically get wound up on completion, would be the answer. After setting up the NTF mechanism the government and bureaucracy would remain totally out of the loop. Benign over-watch could be maintained by a non-governmental oversight committee.

© Vinod Saighal
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


RE-APPRAISING THE IDEA OF INDIA

(Talk delivered by Maj.Gen. Vinod Saighal (retd) at the Rajiv Gandhi Institute for Contemporary Studies, New Delhi on May 10, 2003)

The ‘Idea of India’ has been variously commented upon by several persons, many of them well known, from the perspective of their own background, whether they be writers, expatriates, political scientists, constitutional experts, philosophers and the like. Almost invariably the discipline or the academic background of the person putting forward the ideas has manifested itself in the views expressed, perhaps naturally so. This point is mentioned because the diversity of views of the idea of India can be seen to be as abundant as the idea of India itself. On the academic plane, i.e. from the perspective of persons who are able to put across their views to a larger audience through their writings or discourses the ‘Idea’ has been regarded, or at times discredited as one or the other label, most notably cultural, civlisational, political or an amalgam of complexities, too difficult to discern with any degree of clarity. As if these complexities were not enough, the present dialogue on the idea of India has been overwhelmingly coloured by the controversy raging over secular and non-secular debates that have taken place or are taking shape at the very moment when the world itself is being buffeted by contradictions that it thought it had wound down for a century or more.

To a lay person standing aside from the debate on the idea of India, which itself is a subliminal thrust towards a perceived ideal for the person informing the debate, the idea per se becomes a superimposition of the beliefs or prejudices of the person concerned. Standing back, at some remove from a direct involvement, it should be possible for any objective observer to anticipate with a reasonable degree of accuracy the position that would be likely to be taken by a well known person putting across his or her idea of India. This statement should not be construed as a criticism of a given mindset of the idea of India, which in several cases would be seen to conform to the ideal of the person formulating the idea of India. The digression at the start of the paper is made to show that the very subjectivity attached to the idea of India makes it an imperfect ideal for being accepted as such – in case it is meant to be so – by the majority of the people who go through the humdrum of Indian existence without trying to look for anything beyond the travails of their existence. To that extent the debate remains esoteric.

The amorphous nature of the idea of the ‘Idea of India’ allows for as many interpretations as there are people pondering over it as an intellectual exercise. There are so many ways of looking at a country whose civilisational base goes back to the dawn of civilization itself. An individual, or groups of individuals, who in their remoteness remain steeped in the traditions patterned on the lives of their forefathers since time immemorial do not have to delve into aspects that are of analytical, philosophical or historical interest to writers and savants, who debate these issues. They live the tradition. It is part of their very being. It is the continuum that in their mind was without beginning, flows effortlessly into the present, and by their reckoning, moves as easily into the future. It is a faith and an understanding untrammeled by self-doubt or doubt about the tradition in which they are steeped.

There are others, comprising the bulk of the people of India, living in India, who may share the attitudes of their brethren, although the pre-modern type of existence would appear to be an anachronism to many people who have stepped into the modern world. Here again, by and large the new lifestyle adopted by them – by some as recently as the last 30 or 40 years – need not lead to questioning of their civilisational past or their idea of what that past was and how it is to be lived in the present. Therefore, in a statistical sense it would be only a small percentage of Indians who would be grappling with the question of what the idea of India represents to them or for them.

A re-worked idea of India, shaped at the beginning of the new century through the dizzying scientific breakthroughs taking place at a myriad points on the scientific horizon, must take into account the externalities that will have a major effect on the thinking of the Indian nation, of all nations, for that matter. True, that in a country like India the external impulses are felt most keenly, in the first instance, by the power elites and the globalised elites in the metropolitan cities most receptive to them. On the face of it they do not directly buffet the minds of people in communities still steeped in the ways of their forefathers. Although the trickle down effect is slower, much slower, it cannot be escaped altogether, even by people living in remote regions of the country, cocooned in their time warp due to their relative inaccessibility. Nevertheless, since the policies being enacted by the governing elites are directly influenced - or imposed upon - by the prime movers of globalisation they will, over a period of time, have an effect on the lives of most people; whether it would be to a lesser or greater degree will be determined by the distance of the communities from the centers of globalisation. Naturally, there will be other determinants as well.

* * **

The India, which now situates itself at the dawn of the third millennium after Christ, must take into account the political aspect. Modern India, after attaining its independence in 1947 has been shaped, reshaped or become misshapen by the parliamentary form of government that the founding fathers of post-independent India chose for it in the belief that it represented the best ideal for ‘their’ idea of India; for transforming it after centuries of subjugation into a strong healthy society. Therefore, the country’s political identity is based on its commitment to certain fundamental principles, namely justice, liberty, equality, fraternity and the dignity of the individual. Fundamental rights institutionalize, respect and protect the individual’s dignity and freedom. The Directive Principles go further in that they have a strong egalitarian thrust. After 50 years of what many would call national decline, at least in the realm of governance, blame is being put upon the constitution, which India gave itself on achieving independence. Rightly or wrongly, whether condemning it outright or picking holes in it from time to time, it remains undeniable that the people at the helm of affairs who guided India’s destiny through that turbulent period of the partition of India must have based their actions upon their idea of India. Something akin to what is being attempted now; except that in the present case the projections remain academic and possibly idealistic without the compelling burden of transforming those ideas into actions that could shape the country’s future for the next 50 years or more, as was the case with the decisions that followed the ideation of the founding fathers of that earlier era.

It would be futile to keep harping on the rightness or otherwise of the decisions taken at that time by the leaders of the country whose stature and idealism as well as the sacrifices made by them during the freedom struggle conferred upon them an aura and mystique that few leaders can hope to achieve in the present day. Their stature as leaders beloved of their people reverberated beyond the confines of the India’s geographic boundary. It cannot be a matter of satisfaction that charismatic leaders of yester year who rode as colossi on the national as well as global arenas have almost disappeared from the face of the earth, yielding place to pygmies who lead their people through autocratic dispensations or the vagaries of the ballot box. In the latter case, often coming to power for reasons far removed from their ability to lead their people.

Whether the Constitution failed India or the people who were in the ascendant over the years as educators, intellectuals, governing elites as well as the haves, failed the constitution and the country is a debate that is not likely to die down any time soon. Nor is it likely that the constitution, which for all its failings – real or imaginary - has become reasonably well embedded can be displaced or turned over in the foreseeable future. Fed up with the state of affairs, public ferment is bound to lead to changes, mostly for the good of the people as well as the country. Whether intellectuals and the educated elite, both within the country and the expatriates, will play a significant role as harbingers of salutary changes remains an open question. In the earlier centuries, men of letters influenced the thinking of their countrymen, or even the world, over long periods of time. In some cases the movement of ideas would be considered to have been glacial by present reckoning. This is where the most significant change has come in for the men of letters, the shapers of ideas, in the form of information technology. Hence, the ivory tower appellation of rarefied intellectual debates need not apply any longer, or at least not to the same extent. Diffusion and dissemination can take place very fast, with lightening speed if the mediums of transmission and diffusion happen to be receptive to the idea.

The political shape of the nation is bound to play an over-sized part – overwhelmingly larger, when compared to other factors that determine the future of the country. Ignoring this fact, building an ideal that does not take into account the ground reality in which India is anchored in the opening years of the 21st century, or mired as some others might like to word it, would make the idea devoid of substance.

* * *

Two major streams that dominate the intellectual as well as political discourse of the country today relate to the place of religion in modern India and the relevance of the philosophy and ideals of Mahatma Gandhi. Coming first to religion, it was denied sufficient space in the political mainstream - as well as by officialdom - due to the political philosophy and the thinking of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, the first prime minister of India and the Congress Party that played an overarching role in the country’s affairs in the opening decades after independence. Moreover, it might have been a conscious effort on the part of all concerned to exorcise the ghosts of the violent partition of India. Whether the post- secular society that India became in the last decades of the 20th century was inevitable on account of the transformations taking place in neighbouring countries and their influence on the two largest religious communities in India is a question that could be taken up by future historians. Whatever be the case, religion, in its more assertive and virulent form came up front in many parts of the world. India was no exception. Even if externalities had not impinged upon India, the country would have reached the same point, almost inevitably so, by a different route. If interdenominational clashes between the two main communities had not come to the fore earlier, it was also on account of the firm governance that obtained in the first few decades after independence, due as much to the latent stability resulting from over one century of strong, well regulated centralized authority in India. It was this latent stability, added to the competence and commitment of the leaders and civil servants who governed the country in the period immediately after independence that kept a lid on many of the ills seen raising their ugly heads today in the country. Matters, of course, came to a head during the emergency. The post-emergency decline in almost all spheres of governance and in almost all strata of society has led the country to the state that it finds itself in at the beginning of the new century. That it is not a happy state of affairs hardly needs reiteration.

The second important aspect relates to the philosophy of Gandhi. Although Gandhi continues to form an important part of the ongoing political and economic discourse taking place in the country, and elsewhere in the world for that matter, it has to be mentioned that in spite of the ideals of the Mahatma quoted with reverence at most forums discussing the future course of the country, his economic and political philosophy has not really found acceptance in the country, in so far as their practical application goes. And at the end it is difficult to think of an idea of India that completely dissociates itself from the maxims of the Mahatma, whether they relate to governance, sustainable development, harmony in pluralistic societies or for the conduct of nations in the global arena. It is not surprising that Gandhi continues to attract the attention of so many people around the world, both as the man and the ideals that he stood for. Unfortunately, the debate around the Mahatma rages, especially in India, around elements that were never put into practice in the land where they took birth.

Looking back on the events of the 20th century, both pre- and post-independence in India, one cannot fail to get the impression that although he did not lose hope or his faith in his ideals Gandhi might have died a disillusioned man. If not disillusioned, certainly heartsick at the turn of events. Did the bloodletting that took place at the time of partition in the land where for over four decades he had preached ahimsa indicate that his philosophy had failed? Amongst others, this was the land of Mahavira and Buddha. It did not end with partition. The bloodletting continues to this day, in every part of the subcontinent where the father of the nation traveled. If present indications are anything to go by it could continue till well into the future seeing the current trends across national divides in all directions in the subcontinent. Hence, it can be seen that the ground reality is almost diametrically opposed to the Gandhian tradition that so many Indians continue to extol in public forums, be they intellectuals, social workers, politicians or economists. The ordinary Indian too continues to revere the memory of the Mahatma. When the state of affairs threatens to get out of hand people still go to Rajghat in ever increasing numbers to take a pledge at the samadhi of the Mahatma.

The increasing hiatus between Gandhianism and the policies followed by Gandhi’s successors in India, regardless of their political leanings, raises fundamental questions for the idea of India. For the people of India, and for people around the world there can be no perception of India, real or imagined, where the ideals of the Mahatma do not loom large. How is this contradiction to be reconciled? Because, if it is not addressed and is merely glossed over at every public place within the country and without, where the name of Gandhi is taken, India will not be able to emerge unscathed from this troubling dissonance between the precept and its practice.

Seeing that India itself has veered so far away from the Gandhian mould it should have been possible to reject Gandhi’s philosophy out of hand and move forward without a backward glance at an ideal that was considered impractical; or could not be put into effect in a land were shallowness, hypocrisy and untruthfulness have become the order of the day, at least in public life. In which case, getting rid of the baggage of Gandhianism and getting on with the governance of the country in the non- Gandhian mould that it has adapted should have been easy.

This has not been the case. At the same time that untruthfulness and venality are in full cry, the very leaders who have propelled the country in that direction have not been able to dispense with the trumpeting of Gandhi’s legacy because of a lurking fear that should it be discarded India would not only have lost its way, it would have lost its soul. Then there would be no turning back. The thought of that final break, even shedding the pretence that is, troubles these peoples. They know that without the pretence they would not be able to face their countrymen, not at the hustings, not in public, possibly not even in private. At a deeper level they are not unaware that a final abandonment of Gandhianism would be tantamount to condemning themselves to a karmic descent too horrid to contemplate. For, no matter how immoral the lot that governs the nation, in their heart of hearts they are deeply religious, albeit in a very warped sense of what their understanding of being religious should be. They also know that in India the vast majority of their countrymen revere the Mahatma and in spite of their poverty, deprivation and misery still closely adhere to the thoughts and ideals of Gandhiji. For they are the ideals of Vivekananda, Sri Aurobindo and so many other sages and seers who moulded the character and destiny of India through the ages. That destiny that awaited India at midnight of 15th August 1947 has still eluded the country. Beneath the despair and turmoil that afflicts the land that destiny still awaits India. India will yet produce the leaders who will take India to the pinnacle that the Mahatma and the sages before him dreamed of. And therefore, the ideal cannot be lost sight of. The ideal of Mahatma Gandhi is far too important for the redemption of India, if it is to find its feet and its true destiny. For the very same reason it is important for the world as well.

It is necessary to go a step further. The reasons as to why when the majority of Indians believe in it and the political leaders profess to believe in it, Gandhianism has not prevailed in the country of its origin have to be gone into. The main reason could be the difficulty of transplanting the Gandhian ideal of the early 20th century. Under an alien dispensation that ruled the country, and because of it being alien, it started uniting the country ideologically in the earlier decades before independence. The circumstances that obtained post-independence after the partition of India are not the same. And as the years went by, leading ultimately to the dominant market capitalist economy model pervading the world in the 21st century, the implementation of those ideas became even more difficult. Firstly, as mentioned earlier, the conditions had altered radically, and secondly, having moved so far away from the Gandhian philosophy and its economic derivatives it became increasingly difficult to retrace the steps taken. Having said that, the attempts at strengthening panchayati raj and the adherence to the principle, if not the practice, of sustainable development would qualify as a bow in the direction of Gandhianism.

Meanwhile a fundamental change has taken place in the make up of the people of India - and the world as well. More than fifty years after Gandhi’s death, the capitalist model – and the morality that goes with it - have become the norm. Even countries most staunchly opposed to it earlier, have embraced it whole-heartedly, notably Russia and China. Could people of those days when Gandhi was popularizing the charkha have anything in common with Deng Xiao Peng’s famous exhortation to his countrymen that, ‘it is glorious to be rich’. If it is glorious to be rich, then there is nothing left of the Gandhian philosophy. If not the masses, at least the political class and the elites of modern India have embraced Deng’s dictum as fervently as the Chinese in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, in most cases as strongly as the American themselves. Whatever be the reason for this departure from socialism to capitalism, it is undeniable that going back to the economic idealism contained in Gandhi’s writings would relegate India to an economic abyss from which there would be no recovery in the world of today. May be, when consumerism that is fast overtaking the globe makes life itself unsustainable on the planet, people across the world will start reappraising the economic philosophy of Gandhi. That is why the world is not going to forget Mahatma Gandhi. By association India, rightly or wrongly, will benefit from that grand reversal, whenever it takes place on a global scale. If India is to remain as part of the global economy, without completely shedding some of the desirable aspects of its socialist past, it must start its own reappraisal for benefiting from the vision of Gandhi wherever it is possible to transform that vision on the ground under the prevailing conditions in the country and the world. If the world has to save itself from self-destruction Gandhian non-violence must become the leitmotif of a globalised world, and a reformed UN structure that allows non-violence between states to become the norm for the 21st century.

It was possibly Mahatma Gandhi who said: ‘for my worldly needs my village is my world; for my spiritual needs the world is my village’.

* * *

The Indian diaspora is playing a much bigger role in moulding India’s selfhood than it did before the 1990s. There could be several reasons for the renewed interest and what is more the new activism of the Indian expatriate community, which is now far more affluent and self-assured than their counterparts who left India to seek their fortunes in other lands before and after India’s partition. The self-assurance and higher incomes have allowed people of Indian origin from around the world to participate more directly in India’s development. The pace at which the interaction is taking place could have, over the ensuing decades, a positive effect far out of proportion to the strength of the Indian diaspora that is actively engaged in the exercise to move India forward. More importantly, the Indian diaspora is making itself heard in safeguarding the country’s interest in the corridors of power in USA and elsewhere. The idea of India of the expatriates is in many ways distinct from that of their fellow Indians, in India. It is born out of their need for self-assertion in their adopted countries in a world where civilizations appear to be actually clashing - with the attendant uncertainties that such clashes generate for non-local persons.

The image of India for consumption in the West, notably America, as well as for home consumption in India is also being shaped by Indian expatriates who now number in the tens of millions and whose wealth has grown into the tens of billions of dollars. Their writings, actions and interactions have left an indelible impression on India’s image abroad. The new lot of expatriates that went to find their fortunes in the West after the information technology revolution represented a different breed from those that had gone earlier. The latter day emigrants being largely the products of prestigious Indian institutes started off at higher base income levels and quickly rose to prominence in several fields. For the same reason they were far more self-assured, articulate and conscious of the need to rebuild India, as well as to refurbish its image. Their common institutional backgrounds allowed them to network far more effectively than their predecessors. Networking allowed them to form pressure groups for influencing policy and thinking about India in the countries of their adoption. This cohesion did not go unnoticed in India, by the government of India, the political parties, the states, as well as the Indian media. In-country networking led to inter-country networking. As their self-confidence grows, along with their ability to influence developments in India, it suggests that the Indian diaspora will continue to play a significant role in the years ahead in remoulding India’s image. Over a period of time this interaction between India and Indian expatriate communities is bound to enrich India in several ways.

When one speaks of global projection of the idea of India, there is a dual purpose attached to the idea of India. Firstly, it refers to the idea, which harmonizes with the idea that the Indian diaspora have formed and are propagating. It has to be dynamic. It cannot be something that is congealed in some hoary past and frozen at a given point in time, to be resurrected for showing India in a better light than the situation in the country at the dawn of the new millennium would warrant. Similarly, an idea of India that is superlatively formulated to show India as the repository of all earthly wisdom from time immemorial, to the exclusion of the contribution made by other civilizations would be at variance with the true spirit of the very wisdom that is being extolled. Arrogance, be it intellectual or on account of a great heritage, would not go down well with other components of the human mosaic of the 21st century. Therefore, the other aspect of the image that India wishes to transmit to the world must bring out the harmonizing effect of the ancient message that traveled from India to many parts of the world before many of the world’s religions in the ascendant today had come into being.

India will not be able to find its true identity or realistically arrive at an idea of itself, which the country can live comfortably with, as also make it a worthwhile idea for global projection unless the internal contradictions that are coming up are first addressed.

* * *

No set of people can really live in isolation or remain indifferent to the crosscurrents being generated in the globalised world. The advance of technology will soon invade every remote niche that remains in the world, be it spatial, in the geographical sense, or the privacy of the human mind, in the metaphysical sense. Hence, seeing the pervasiveness of the processes that are being mobilized for invading the last bastions of the human as well as the natural environment it would be appropriate to look around the world to see whether there is any country whose society can be seen, or can be deemed to be progressing towards the ideal state that a conclave of this nature would be attempting to interpret, or define, even if it were to remain a process of mere intellectualization, at some remove from the practicality of the ideal sought.

Who shapes the national - and international - dialogue? It is an important question, because it is those people who have gathered unto themselves the instruments for shaping the dominant discourse of today, who are leading the world into the cul-de-sac of negativism and violence. When scanning the global horizon in pursuit of seeking out societies that my be headed toward an idea of an ideal state that comes nearest to the global ideal of the 21st century, one finds that wherever one looks, be it USA, Russia, China, the countries of Latin America, Africa, Asia or Europe it is seen that almost all these societies have developed into systems that have been unable by and large to maintain or improve upon the social cohesion of societies, which is fast breaking down in most parts of the world. There are many factors that are leading to the fragmentation of stable or relatively stable systems - and societies - that had enjoyed a greater measure of peace and harmony than they do now. Whether the state of churning or flux has been brought on by the post-World War II, followed by the post-Cold War reordering of the world order, or whether it is a byproduct of rapid modernization and globalisation, is a question that can be debated at length. Whatever be the case, the ambient condition today within societies - and between nations - is far from harmonious. Nor, on the face of it, does it seem to be heading in a direction that could bring comfort to people or nations.

* * *

The questions that would be uppermost in one’s mind when contemplating India’s future must take into account some, if not all, of the aspect that are tabulated below: -

Has the political self-assertion, or the attempt at self-assertion by some of the deprived segments of Indian society now finding political representation ameliorated the condition of these classes as a whole or has it merely enabled the new leaders of the backward classes to exploit the situation for their own aggrandizement at the cost of their communities, without bringing any real benefits to the latter? Carrying this thought process further, ‘ will these new leaders be co-opted into the governing elites once the process of self-aggrandizement has reached levels that allow them to emulate the sections that they were agitating against’?
What will be the outcome a few years hence of the metropolitan elites around the world consciously collaborating with the forces of globalisation? These forces might have started from America. However, they are no longer limited to that country.
Leaders of political struggles, revolutionaries, upholders of public morality, social scientists and many others in similar categories have sought to describe their struggle or movement as one of liberation. It can be argued that the phrase ‘struggle for liberation’ has fallen into disuse, or become hackneyed. Nonetheless, it may become necessary to have another look at these clichés. Since they served their purpose admirably in the past, are they still relevant or do they sound hollow? Hollowness can result from overuse or misuse or it can be the result of the quality or worth of the people who use these slogans for purposes that may be far removed from the ideology that they proffer. At the end of it all when applying the term liberation to India, some clarity must obtain as to where the process of liberation would lead i.e., liberation from or liberation to? What the people are being liberated from has been variously described as hunger, want, deprivation, marginalisation, humiliation and all the ills that are visited upon the proverbial have-nots anywhere in the world. ‘Liberation to’ in its ideal sense can best be described in Tagore’s immortal poem, which reads:
Where the mind is without fear

and the head is held high,

Where knowledge is free,

Where the world has not been broken

Up into fragments by narrow domestic walls;

Where words come out from the

depth of truth;

Where tireless striving stretches its

arms towards perfection;

Where the clear stream of reason

has not lost its way

into the dreary desert sand of dead habit;

Where the mind is led forward

by three into ever-widening thought and action –

into that heaven of freedom,

my father, let my country awake.

***

All countries have their religious practices, faiths and beliefs. The distinctiveness of India lies in the primacy attaching to the concept of self-abnegation and self-denial. In many ways it goes deeper than similar tendencies that manifest themselves in many other religions and countries. It is for this reason that absolute poverty cannot be assigned a true statistical value in India. Because, at any given time, it is difficult to guess as to what percentage of the poor follow a lifestyle, which can be deemed to be below the poverty line due to circumstantial indigence, or the state of poverty being induced volitionally. It is practically impossible to fathom the number of mendicants who go around the country because they have chosen to adopt that particular way of life. Similarly, stories are still heard of well to do people giving up their wealth, finishing their duties as householders, and retiring to the banks of the Ganges to pass their remaining days in prayer, fasting, meditation and the like.

Most religions in the world, if not all of them, stress on the need for forgiveness, tolerance and compassion. In India compassion extended to all living beings. Many followers of Jainism to this day go to great levels to ensure that no harm comes to other living creatures. Compassion for all beings must remain at the forefront of societal activity and, when the country is strong enough, even form part of India’s relations with other nations.

** *

When looking at the tragedy unfolding in the Middle East and the region on account of the unilateral US intervention, shedding at some stage even the fig leaf of justification for occupying Iraq the supine-ness of the leaders of the countries opposed to the intervention has to be examined. This is especially so in the case of India. In spite of the widespread anger against the Anglo-American intervention, the government chose pragmatism as the state response to the tragic event. Although the government’s response was in conformity with the response of practically all the governments in the world that chose to play it safe, the issue is raised in this discussion because it is in juxtaposition to the idea of India, which leaders of India after independence have been propagating to the world. Although the world has long become weary of the sermonizing coming from Indian shores, the message that came through was that India was a country that cherished the ideals of rightness of action and rightness of response. In abandoning its core values - the idea of an ancient civilization, steeped in wisdom and conscious of the difference between right and wrong - as a basis for conduct of foreign policy, the governmental elite of the country has vacated the space for basing international relations on the higher plane of moral principles to non-governmental entities or individuals who might command a measure of respect in public life. Needless to add that such abandonment of the path, or even the pretence, of right conduct, is in conformity with the prevailing norm across nations as the forces of globalisation infuse the world with their non-virtues or the pleasure principle as the fulcrum of all actions.

** *

To project or even propel India into a future which many people view with trepidation one must look over one’s shoulder into the past. Not that remote past from which many people today want to draw their inspiration - more consciously than the ordinary consciousness that inheres in the minds of most Indians as to what that past might have been. That would be going too far back. Here, the past merely refers to the period after independence, divided into those early years when many of the participants (at the discussion) were very young, the Republic of India even younger. How did people of this generation look at India at that time, as it was unfolding in the ever present and flowing into a future that beckoned enticingly, even enchantingly. Doubtless there were difficulties, trials and tribulations, which the nation was undergoing. Whatever may have been happening, dejection and despair were not in the ascendant to the same level that they are today. A few decades on, having journeyed with India into the new century, the same generation has a different vision of India. In spite of the remarkable progress made in many fields – and the achievements are certainly there for everyone to see – the spirit that pervades the nation seems to have lost the freshness and innocence, perhaps naiveté of those early years. What India has evolved into in the first decade of the new century is certainly not in keeping with the vision of what India should have evolved into that people in the first decades after independence cherished.

Here we come to the first dissonance. India has gained in many respects. In several other ways India has declined. How does one strike a balance between the gains and losses when the gains are in the material plane and the losses in planes other than material. Care is being taken to avoid the use of the word spiritual when chalking up the gains and the losses. For while efforts to resurrect the hoary past merge into the realm of the spiritual, the understanding of spirituality obtaining now in India - and perhaps the rest of the world - is not the same as it might have been when the great Vedic hymns to creation were being first sung on the banks of sacred rivers that now stand as polluted as the spirits of the souls that still ritualistically immerse themselves in these flows to seek salvation. Looking at it this way, the foremost image that leaps to the surface in the consciousness plane of the beings of today is a vast sea of pollution where the scum that rises to the surface represents, symbolically, the spiritual progress, even if it cannot be measured so as to be able to offset it against the material gains; represented almost exactly on the day of the discourse by a figure of 77 billion US dollars (the external reserves of the country in early May 2003).

Where does one go from here? Should the country pitch headlong into the globalising mainstream and let the currents carry it in the direction of the new forms of nirvana, attained by the leaders of globalisation - the USA and the West, ably followed by their counterparts in the extreme east, China and Japan. Following the leader, in the true spirit of globalisation and the direction in which it is headed, will prevent people in India from falling between two stools, in this world and the next. The dilemma is very real. There are no easy answers. Having said that, answers have to be found. For it is not a question of black and white, of simply tossing a coin and then following the path indicated by the upward face of the coin, pointing towards the sky, the sun and the stars. It may be easier for other countries to do so, like China has done. India’s manifest destiny does not lie in that direction. It lies in realms that can never be reached by true practitioners of globalisation. Writing in The Hindu (October 1, 2002), Naresh Gupta aptly sums it up when he states: “the world of today has achieved much, but for all its declared love for humanity, it has based itself far more on hatred and violence than on the virtues that make man human.

There is a need to engage with those who belittle and condemn India, so that their varied and rich talent does not remain tied to an acerbic condemnation of their country – no matter how real their concern – in a language that can only be appreciated by the educated elite and foreigners who joyously lap up this condemnation and confer great honors upon the authors. Condemnation for the sake of condemnation no matter how beautifully expressed is not likely to lead to any real amelioration of the conditions that gave rise to the anger or the condemnation. Writing in Young India in 1929, Mahatma Gandhi said: “My mission is not merely brotherhood of Indian humanity… My patriotism is not an exclusive thing… The conception of my patriotism is nothing if it is not always, in every case without exception, consistent with the broadest good of humanity at large.” Rabindranath Tagore said that while nationalism was often a blessing, too often it has been a curse. The Indian philosophy of Vasudeva Kutumbam promotes the feeling of ‘one world’. Jawaharlal Nehru propounded the concept of ‘Panchsheel’ as the basis of mutual relationship. The Bhagvad Gita and the Isavasyopanishad tell us that the yogi sees himself in all beings and all beings in himself. He sees the same in all. If one sees all living things as if they were in his body i.e. feels their joys and sorrows as his own, and sees the same Universal Spirit in all things then there is no need for protecting oneself against others. When a man understands that all beings are, indeed, the all-pervading Spirit, then he realizes the oneness of all things.

***

Whatever be one’s station in life - from those who are below the poverty line to those who are the wielders of power - all need to be reminded that the primary status of everyone in the country is first and foremost that of a citizen. In that respect, all are coequal. Similarly, the comity of nations will have to push towards a United Nations dispensation wherein from the most deprived nations barely existing as civilized structures owing to over-exploitation and marginalisation, to those mighty nations who decide what is good for the world, all must strive for the democratization of the UN. Therefore, in reshaping the idea of India, its leaders have to recast their philosophy. They must resume engagement with all those who were being referred to as the ‘third world’ countries. The concept of the third world can be redefined to embrace all deprived nations whose primary impulse is towards global stability and harmony. In an over-exploited world these are mostly nations who are struggling to simply find a place in the sun. The idea of leadership itself must undergo fundamental transformation. Traditionally, when talking of a leadership role amongst nations, the implication was to unite the group to confront other groups of nations seeking dominance in some form or the other. That remained the mindset of the post-colonial era after World War II, when the marginalized nations of the world were trying to position themselves as a third force between the two superpowers of the day.

The 21st century reality of the unipolar world does not confer any leadership role upon India, should the country remain wedded to the prejudices of its earlier experience. If India wants to be heard, if it wants to strike out independently for charting a course that propels the world away from confrontation and the growing spiral of violence, it must adopt as a nation the values that enriched India in the past and continue to enrich mankind wherever those values take root. Simply put, those values relate to non-violence and self-abnegation. The aspect of non-violence has already been touched upon. The point at issue now is, as to whether self-abnegation or self-denial, the greatest of human virtues in an individual can be extended to a nation. If the course of the history of violence since the last century, added to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is taken as a guide, the answer must be in the affirmative. There does not seem to be any other way. India is ideally positioned to take the lead. It must continue to make economic progress and strengthen itself internally and externally. However, having achieved these goals it should deny itself a position at the top table. It should not hanker after a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council, as that body is presently structured. India should categorically state that it remains anchored to the aspiration of all third world countries that are looking to change the lot of their people; be they mired in backwardness and poverty because they were the victims of exploitation in the colonial era, or on account of misgovernance. Having been a part of the third world, India must seek a collective betterment for all the nations who comprise the vast collectivity known as the developing nations. Either they all benefit from the new dispensation, even if it were to be so incrementally, over a given period of time, or they collectively hold out for a more just world order. India must assure them that it will not desert them no matter how tempting the offers from the rich man’s club. In reshaping the idea of India the individual and national identity must aspire to march together for a better self and a better world.

* * *

When picking up a daily newspaper at random in any of the metropolitan cities on any given day the impression is likely to remain that India is an aggregation of dissonances.

The images that flicker across the reader’s perceptual frame could include: unity in diversity in juxtaposition to increasing disunity - the more the diversity, the greater the disunity; national integration opposed by national dis-aggregation; cultural plurality yielding place to cultural segregation; multi-ethnicities leading to multitudinous divisions; and now at the beginning of the new century the overarching intrusion of capitalism in full cry, which in developing countries like India translates into the accentuation of the divide between the haves and have-nots’. It hardly needs to be stressed that for India to move ahead it needs to rededicate itself to the ideas of social justice, equality, fraternity, individual liberty and human dignity that were so well set out in the preamble to the Constitution of India.

***

People who gather together to talk about the idea of India or write about it, wherever they might happen to be have to think about providing a set of guidelines, if not answers, for the new generation growing up at the beginning of the 21st century to shape the future of India. The questions that they would be grappling with would include, inter alia:

· How much has the globe impinged on India?

How much is India impacting the world?
What do the young people of India want?
What questions are they posing?
What is our response?
Do we have a response (to their questions)?
When we write about these matters or articulate them in different forums in India and abroad whom are we targeting?
What audience is it actually reaching?
In the land of tolerance isn’t it strange that discussion on tolerance has become one of the hottest issues?
Role models. Who are they?
Who or what represents the essence of India?
For whom?
India’s conscience. Who are its minders and keepers?
Do we really need minders and keepers?
***

Whatever the transformation in recent years and regardless of the polarization between religions and ethnic divides that is taking place, humaneness as the deeper instinct prevails more in Indian society than in many other societies. For example, the type of mass exterminations which were carried out during the Muslim invasions in many parts of Asia and during the era of the Christian colonization of the world, have never been attributed to Indian expansionism. Even the atrocities attributed to Indian security forces pail in comparison when compared to the scale of the atrocities committed by the armed forces of other nations. Any number of examples can be given: Pakistan, in East Bengal where the Pakistan army slaughtered three million people and raped half a million women, all of them Pakistani citizens since East Bengal was still a province of Pakistan when these atrocities were committed; the US excesses in Vietnam; the Chinese excesses in Xinjiang and Tibet; and so on.

***

At the dawn of the new millennium after Christ, when one looks around, it becomes abundantly clear that the spiral of violence within societies, and between nations, has reached self-energizing momentum that might only be stilled by a cataclysmic event, the likes of which has not been witnessed before in human experience.

Between societies and groupings that cohere to form nations the ideal situation that must be worked towards would be one where the need for primacy does not arise. Non-violence appears to be the antithesis of the global reality in today’s world. Nevertheless, the concept of non-violence which can be deemed to be the most profound contribution that ancient Indian thought made to the world must regain its primacy, within India and without, if human society is to continue to live in a civilized form. That the essential harmony of all sentient beings, indeed sentience itself, as put forward by Mahavira, Gautama Buddha and many others was made the basis for India’s freedom struggle by Mahatma Gandhi should not be looked at in isolation, as a mere reiteration of non- violence. By introducing the ancient precept into the mainstream of the anti-colonialism struggle in India, Gandhi may have been looking well beyond to the universal projection of his innate belief in the virtue of non-violence as a survival imperative for humanity, just when scientific breakthroughs were on the verge of putting immensely destructive capabilities into the hands of mankind.

© Vinod Saighal
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Making of the President – Unmaking of the Indian Constitution
Making of the President – But not at the cost of Unmaking of the Indian Constitution. The article reproduced below appeared in the Economic Times (30 May 1997), almost exactly ten years ago, prior to the election of the president of India at that time. If anything, it is more relevant today when partisan politics and vote banks politics threaten to further erode the functioning of the Constitution. In recent years it has been proved time and again that the political class on entering the hallowed sanctums of the Indian parliament in New Delhi and the State legislatures does not respect the vox populi. Since results are based on the constitutional lacuna of first-past-the-post, the majority of the legislators are elected with very low percentages of the popular vote. By extension it implies that over sixty or seventy and, at times, even 80 to 90 percent of the constituents did not vote for the elected representative. Now almost 30 percent of them have criminal cases against them, often charged with heinous crimes, including murder, rape and dacoity. Yet the political class has neither shown the inclination nor mustered the will to further amend The Representation of People Act. Hereafter, things are likely to go from bad to worse, going by present trends.

Under these circumstances the selection of the president in July 2007is an important landmark. The way the political parties are going about it, they appear to be bent upon politicizing the highest office in the land. Before they end up by degrading it to their own level the Indian public or “We the People” must intervene to prevent such an outcome. Almost any sounding taken from the people in practically every part of India will indicate that other than the present incumbent, Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam, none of the names being thrown up by the political class have any appeal for the people of India. Irrespective of which agency conducts the poll the candidates being suggested by the political parties would garner support of less than 9 percent as the first choice of the people, going down to as low as 1 to 3 percent.

As opposed to this India has thrown up non-political, iconic figures who are not only role models but enjoy respect even across India’s frontiers. There are many such names. They include Sreedharan of Delhi Metro fame, Ratan Tata, Azim Premji of Wipro and Narayan Murthy of Infosys. Were a national referendum to be taken each one of them would easily garner well over 50 percent of the national vote. The figure could actually go up to 70 or 80 percent. The question then arises that if India is blessed with people of such high distinction, moral fiber, public esteem, proven competence in their chosen fields, and enjoying international respect then why are the people of India deprived of their services for occupation of the highest office in the land. It is time that ‘we the people’ took the process away from a handful of political bahubalis and coteries and made it a truly democratic one. There is still time to do so. To achieve the desired results and to prevent political chicanery from vitiating democracy at the apex the following action needs to be started immediately by all concerned:

Ø Media to start highlighting the possibilities open to the public through public pressure on each one of the legislators having electoral college votes;

Ø Flooding the print media with letters to the editor;

Ø Indicating their preferences to the electronic media every day at every opportunity;

Ø NGOs, RWAs, Ex-servicemen Leagues, schools, colleges, IIsM , IIsT and all other bodies and institutes of similar nature to hold public meetings and pass resolutions;

Ø Eminent citizens’ groups to personally approach and persuade some of the respected names mentioned earlier to enter themselves as independent candidates of peoples choice; fine tuning for ultimately putting one of them as the people’s candidate would follow; CII, FICCI, ASSOCHAM and regional chambers of commerce to take the lead in this exercise;

Ø Any other activity of this nature that creates an irreversible momentum for democratic fulfillment.

Evidently, the people have no direct voting rights. However, since the voting by the electoral college is by secret ballot enough pressure can be put on every legislator, irrespective of the person’s political leanings or hue, to exercise a conscience vote in keeping with the aspirations of the people. Should the citizens of India put their collective shoulder to this exercise for the next 6 to 8 weeks on a daily basis Indian democracy could be put back on a very sound footing. ‘We the People’ would have truly carried the day.

Vinod Saighal

Convenor, MRGG (Movement for Restoration of Good Governance)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Making of the President by Vinod Saighal
If, in spite of constant buffeting, the edifice of democracy still holds in India it is because some pillars of it are still strong.

Hence, whatever the means adopted to stem the rot in the body politic, it has to be ensured that the pillars that provide it some foundational stability are not weakened further. The office of the President falls into this category.

There should be no room for complacency in the era of coalition governments and fractured polities. If the spirit of the Constitution has to be safeguarded the role of the first citizen will become more crucial in the years ahead.

Hence, it behoves the polity, the public and the press to take a more incisive look at the presidential elections of ’97. Failure to do so might lead to the type of debasement that has crept into the other democratic institutions in the country.

The procedures for the election of the President (and vice-president) are well-established. The Election Commission will set the ball rolling in a few weeks from now.

Press reports have confined themselves to factual narration of the composition of the electoral college and the weightage of votes between the elective bodies. Though deliberations of party leaders and pressure groups have been reported, attempts to enlarge the debate have been rather desultory.

This may turnout to be a costly mistake. Before the vote is cast (in a secret ballot) the public must make it clear to the elected representatives that further attempts at subversion of democracy by persons whom it no longer respects will not be tolerated.

The first, and possibly the most important, aspect relates to what is being referred to as consensus. The consensus of the early decades of Independence was altogether different from the consensus of today. The very connotation of the term has undergone a metamorphosis.

Too much emphasis on the need for unanimity in electing Presidents often goes against the grain of democracy. For, such consensus mostly meant imposition of the views of party supremos than a free expression of views.

With such ‘imposed’ consensus, the first citizen of the land becomes psychologically beholden to party caucuses. An element of quid pro quo does come in, more so if the incumbent desires a second term in office.

Since the worst fears of a terminal degeneracy in the body politic have not proven to be unfounded, it is necessary to anticipate events in order to ensure that the office of the President is not dragged into sordid controversies.

Almost the entire process of governance at the political apex today seems to be concentrated upon devising stratagems to subvert the law and order apparatus of the state. In such a circumstance, what sort of consensus should the public accept or the press champion?

There is still time for the press, and the public, to get more meaningfully involved in the presidential election of ’97. The matter must not rest in the hands of a few purveyors of power.

Every member of the electoral college must exercise his vote conscientiously. Under no circumstances must the office of the President become an object of unseemly controversy by the misconduct of the person elected to that office. The personality of the incumbent must not in itself become the cause for perpetual political strife.

Dignity and decorum must remain the hallmark of the person occupying the august office, which for a period of time in the near future might turn out to have more importance than the office of the prime minister.

Indian democracy is in a transitional phase. Only the deft hand of a universally respected person will guide democracy in the right direction in its reconstructive phase.

The most suitable persons in the land should be considered for the office of the President of India in 1997.(The Economic Times, New Delhi, 30 May 1997 by Vinod Saighal)
DeleteReplyForwardSpamMove
...

New Delhi
May 22nd, 2007
© Vinod Saighal

----------------------------------------------------------------



TIME-TESTED TRAVESTY

WHY SONIA GANDHI COULD NEVER HAVE BECOME THE PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA

In its May 14, 2007 issue on TIME 100 Leaders a prominent place has been given to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. The third paragraph of the write up selected by the news magazine reads:

"When her party won national elections in 2004, she was offered the prime ministership; she listened to her "inner voice" and turned it down, and anointed the economist Manmohan Singh in her stead. It was a gesture that was, well, Gandhian. And it solidified her hold on power. For ordinary Indians, this act of renunciation held tremendous mythic resonance.Though Singh is Prime Minister, it is Sonia, 60, who is the kingmaker. And her most lasting legacy may lie in her children Rahul and Priyanka, one of whom may well become India's Prime Minister someday, ascending to the high office that their mother has - thus far - spurned". (Emphasis added). Unquote.

Assuredly TIME must have assessed a few thousand items from its archival retrieval system to select a piece on a person whose influence transcends India’s national borders. Inexplicably TIME chose a piece that does not do credit to either the magazine or Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. Besides the evidently fawning nature of the piece selected – one amongst the many that appeared at that time – it is an indefensible misrepresentation of the facts. Anybody with an elementary knowledge of the functioning of Indian democracy would know the manner in which governments have been formed in New Delhi after every election since India became independent. The fact is that Mrs. Sonia Gandhi was never “offered” the prime ministership, so the question of having "turned it down" doesn't arise. The details of the meeting that took place with the President are not in the public domain. These may be revealed after many years should Dr. Kalam choose to do so in his post-retirement years, or they may never be revealed.

By presenting a falsified version of the account a disservice has been done to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi who single-handedly revived India’s oldest and, perhaps, most respected political party, which was declining at an alarming rate. Mrs. Gandhi’s revival of the grand old party of Indian politics did a service to Indian democracy by restoring a semblance of political balance as an extreme right wing party was tending to pull it away in directions that might not have stabilised the long-term social cohesion of India.

As to why Sonia Gandhi might not ever become the prime minister of India attention has to be drawn to a petition admitted in the Supreme Court. A news item, in the Times of India, New Delhi, April 17, 2007 mentions that the opposition party, which had held Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin as an issue against her taking on any constitutional office asked the Congress party to initiate a political debate over the matter. The opposition party’s call for a debate followed the admission of a petition by the Supreme Court on whether a person of foreign origin could hold a constitutional office. Although the Supreme Court had earlier, on an election petition, ruled that Sonia Gandhi was an Indian citizen, the petitioner, however, got around the ruling by so framing the petition as to focus on her competence to hold an office at the highest level in the country.

The controversy regarding Ms. Sonia Gandhi has unnecessarily taken on a political hue and the clamour against her a political bias. In the political cacophony thus generated the true import of the question of denial of the highest office to a citizen of foreign origin is lost sight of. Very simply stated the nation cannot afford to take a chance. It has nothing to do with the persona of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. It has everything to do with national security and the supreme national interest. Today NATO forces are deployed in Afghanistan, not too far from the borders of India. They are already making forays into NWFP and FATA of Pakistan. Should the situation deteriorate further they might make deeper inroads into Pakistan, thereby coming much closer to the Indian border. Currently, India's relations with the West are on a reasonably good footing owing to the common perception of threat from global terrorism. It should be recalled, nevertheless, that not too far back the West - Italy included - was siding with Pakistan and even China . Even today several western countries, again including Italy, are opposed to India’s nuclear stand and a seat as a permanent member of the Security Council. Hypothetically, as Prime Minister, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi being a person of foreign origin from a NATO country, would be the final arbiter of several decisions regarding India’s security. Should India ever have to confront NATO she would almost certainly face mental anguish, torn between conflicting loyalties to her motherland and her adopted land. It is not inconceivable that India might be obliged to retaliate against NATO forces including Italian forces should India perceive a direct threat to itself. Under these circumstances the question should never arise of a foreign origin person being the ultimate arbiter of India’s security. An example has been given of only the National Security aspect. Similar illustrations can be given from diverse fields where clash of interest between India and Europe or the West could take place in the coming years, although the trend presently is in the other direction. The argument put forward against foreign origin persons holding the highest office in the land, or, for that matter, any office that has a bearing on national security is prima facie unassailable.

Taking a cue from the write up in the latest issue of TIME Indian negotiators, especially the Prime Minister, has to ensure that any nuclear agreement signed with USA in no way compromises India's long-term regional interests or its future security needs.

Vinod Saighal

Convenor MRGG (Movement for Restoration of Good Government)


New Delhi
May 8th, 2007
© Vinod Saighal

---------------------------------------------------------------------



LOSING PAKISTAN BY DEFAULT: MISSIVE FOR BENAZIR BHUTTO
(Through her lawyer who defended her)

Dear Dr.Hassan,
When my book Restructuring Pakistan* first came out many people in Pakistan felt that the title of the book was provocative. It is only when the leading newspaper of Pakistan, DAWN, Karachi came out with a review that serious thinkers and concerned people in your country gave it a more considered look. In the five years since the book came out Pakistan appears to have followed a course almost exactly on the lines given out in the book, i.e., all the misgivings seem to have taken shape in a manner that would confirm the worst fears of well-wishers of Pakistan, more so in the Western World. The latest developments in Islamabad, where a bunch of maulvis and a gaggle of girls seem to have brought the mighty military dispensation to a state of semi-paralysis are worrisome, to say the least. Grapevine has it that a large number of girls who are in the forefront of the agitation in Islamabad were adopted, kidnapped, or induced in other ways to join the madrassas set up by hardline outfits after they were orphaned in the massive earthquake that struck Kashmir two years ago. The military dispensation that has ruled the roost in Pakistan is clearly on the back foot. Gen. Musharraf seems to have painted himself into a corner by the ill-conceived and too-clever-by-half sacking of the Chief Justice of Pakistan. The high-handedness against some television stations has enraged the media – both national and foreign. Meanwhile, the clamor for introduction of the Shariah gathers momentum. In many places the hardliners have gone on the rampage, burning down beauty parlours, music shops and several other establishments not liked by the Jihadis. According to AHRC: “Shariah law taking the place of civil law and Shariah courts taking the place of country’s common law courts is an even greater attack on the judiciary than the initial attack on Chief Justice Choudry. This displacement of the law and its courts by Shariah law and its courts will have far deeper implications for the future of the country than the military regime may have intended. The whole issue of the civil liberties of the people in Pakistan, as well as the problems of property have been risked by this move. The most affected sections would be the women of Pakistan against whom Shariah law has been misapplied to the detriment of their rights. The present crisis is of tremendous importance from the point of view of democracy, human rights and rule of law in the country”. (Unquote).

The government remains a helpless spectator while Pakistan Civil Society is intimidated by small but determined band of well-armed hardliners. Since the situation seems to be getting out of hand the Pakistan military is again examining the option of arriving at an accommodation with the PPP leader Benazir Bhutto (BB). The quid pro quo has been discussed threadbare in many papers. It need not be gone into here. It is against this background that I am writing to you because you are a respected and eminent lawyer who has represented most of the Prime Ministers of Pakistan in law courts within the country and, at times, outside the country. Ipso facto it makes you a close advisor of Benazir Bhutto. Please make it clear to her that this is a historic moment for freeing Pakistan from the clutches of the military and the mullahs for once and for all. The troubles for Pakistan in the past have stemmed from the fact that enlightened leaders (like BB) have failed to take a clear and uncompromising stand against the hardliners. In many countries, and increasingly so in Pakistan, the fair name of Islam is being tarnished by the hardliners - as well as by those viscerally opposed to them. The former, who are in the minority, are well organised, well armed and vociferous. The latter, the tax paying middle class and civil society, which far outnumber the Jihadis is laid back, passive and non-assertive. For them as well as for much of the non-Islamic world the great religion that arose from the Arabian desert to dominate half the world of the time has, in its 21st Century avatar, been reduced to just a three-word descriptive, namely, “cruelty, coercion and fatwas”. Civil Society, much the larger component in Pakistan and in many other Islamic countries, fails itself if it refuses to get organized to take on the Jihadi menace before it is too late. In country after country the silent majority gets pushed to the wall under the agitational weight of much smaller bands of people whose firebrand tactics intimidate the government as well as law-abiding people.

Most significantly, the larger plurality, especially in Pakistan and Bangladesh, has been let down by the very leaders – in both cases women, BB in Pakistan, and Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh - in whom they reposed their faith. Both these ladies had a fantastic political legacy and large public following. They could have been hands down winners. Their one fatal flaw was to have compromised with the hardliners to garner just that little bit extra – no more – electoral support from the latter against their opponents. In almost every case the support that they got from the Jihadist did not translate into many electoral seats, but in the process they lost the support of many of their backers, horrified at the devilishly opportunistic accommodation with the fundamentalists against whom they should have been fighting tooth and nail. In the process they too did their bit to empower the fundamentalists and fell between two stools. If their close advisors do not remove the veil before their eyes they will continue to fall between two stools. Invariably the winners will be the hardliners, who know what they want and never compromise with their opponents till they meet a superior force, like the Pakistan Army and its agency the ISI.

Farooq Sahib, in the light of the foregoing, you should advise Benazir Bhutto and her Pakistan Peoples’ Party not to compromise once again with General Musharraf or the mullahs. The time has come to stand up and be counted. BB must categorically denounce the hardliners for attempting to impose the Shariat, portions of which are an abomination on the human race. They are a crime against women and a taint on any civilised society. Civil society in Pakistan is fed up with the advent of the killjoys. It is natural to sing, dance, play, fly kites and roam about where fancy takes one. Man was born free, woman more so. Who are these 21st century fanatics to legislate for what people should eat, drink or do? Where they congregate and with whom they do so, as part of free people, is their own business, not of self-appointed guardians of morality. Benazir Bhutto has now before her the opportunity of a lifetime. She should fearlessly go forward to denounce the Shariat and the fundamentalists in Pakistan from every pulpit. She should clearly and unequivocally announce to the people of Pakistan that this time she stands for the freedom of Pakistanis and the emancipation of Pakistani women. If elected, she should promise to deliver Pakistan from the scourge of the mullahs and their fatwas and the Shariat. Islam in its essence is a religion that is sublime and compassionate. Terror and tyranny should have no place in it. She has to fight to win on the platform of the famous rallying cry, Liberty, Equality, Fraternity.

Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh has to do the same. Dr. Farooq Hassan, the lawyers in Pakistan are in the forefront of the struggle to restore the majesty of law in their country. You are one of the most distinguished lawyers of your country. Please remove the shackles of self-doubt from the mind of Benazir Bhutto. She became the president of the Oxford Debating Society in her time. The fire in her has been artificially banked by the military, the mullahs and, possibly, the man she married. Let this be the start of a new era for BB and Pakistan. Good luck and good wishes for BB’s and your success.

Yours sincerely

Vinod Saighal

Dr. Farooq Hassan, D.Phil.;

BA (Juris),MA,M. LiTT (OXON);

DCL (Columbia),DIA(Harvard);

Sen.Adv.Sup.Ct. (Pakistan),

Barrister at Law (UK),Attorney at Law(US).

New Delhi
April 25th, 2007
© Vinod Saighal

----------------------------------------------------------------

Blueprint for the Eco-Revival of the Planet


Dear Dr.Pachauri,
The Excerpt reproduced below could well have been written after the IPCC report on global warming and climate change. As a matter of fact it was written a decade ago and published as the introductory chapter of Third Millennium Equipoise:

(Quote)

INTRODUCTION
" The book Third Millennium Equipoise started out as an attempt at a grand synthesis of the accommodations that must be reached to effect a smooth transition to global governance patterns that might be able to restore the health of a dying planet. A few years hence it might be too late, if it is not already the case. One fine day people will wake up and say that this is not the world they knew or wanted. “How did we get here,” they might ask. The question would have become meaningless by then. It would have lost even its academic relevance.

It is not as if people were unaware of what was happening around them or that they had stopped caring. Threats to the planetary environment are being highlighted almost daily. People have become conscious of the fact that the planet may no longer be able to cope with the stresses being generated. The majority of human beings are passionately concerned with the health of the world in which they live. They wish to do something about it. Many of them “are” doing something about it. By any reckoning, when such large numbers are involved in setting things right, the collective efforts should have borne fruit. To an extent they have been successful in arresting the decline. But the result is nowhere near the sum total of the effort put in. The planetary stresses – and human stresses, which contribute to the planetary stress – keep multiplying. Apparently there is a very major contradiction working here. It has to do with the inadequacy of the patterns of response when facing such grave threats.

The state of apparent well being experienced in some parts of the world is illusory. It is just that the full effect of the havoc being wrought elsewhere has not yet reached these havens of surface tranquility. It can be likened to a wasting disease which slowly affects different organs of the body. Till the palliatives work things do not appear very bleak. Then, one fine day, it is all over. When the end comes it is sudden and swift. Perhaps mercifully so. The planet is in a similar state.

The juggernaut of the decline of the human condition – which in turn results in planetary decline – moves inexorably forward. It cannot be stopped in the way that planetary affairs have been managed to date. ................................................................"

(Unquote)

I am again bringing the book to your notice because the next IPCC conference for recommending remedial measures is to be held in Bangkok in May 2007.You had mentioned in an earlier correspondence that you would be bringing the book to the notice of your fellow panelists. If this has not happened, may I request you to please follow it up at the earliest with special reference to the section, “Blueprint for the Eco-Revival of the Planet”. The measures highlighted therein nearly a decade ago require urgent attention not only of the IPCC and its members, but also of national governments, UN Security Council, UN General Assembly and a host of other organizations. It may interest you to know that the first review of the book appeared in the UN Chronical in New York (UN Chronical 3/98). Thereafter, some of the most august personages around the world have commented on the importance of the book as a blueprint for planetary survival. The list of the commentators reproduced below includes scientists, statesmen and spiritual leaders amongst others; It is illustrative, not exhaustive. For example, it does not include the comments of so many other eminent persons, including the comment sent by Mr. Al Gore when he was the Vice President of USA.

Yours Sincerely

Vinod Saighal

THIRD MILLENNIUM EQUIPOISE
WHAT DISTINGUISHED PEOPLE IN THE WORLD HAVE TO SAY ABOUT THE BOOK:

“THE WRITER BRINGS OUT IMPORTANT FACTORS FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT OF GLOBAL PEACE AND TRANQUILITY”. (ÄCHÄRYA SHRI MAHÄPRAJÑA).

“OUTSTANDING BOOK OF DISCERNMENT”(SOKA GAKKAI INTERNATIONAL, JAPAN).

“TOUCHES ON ISSUES OF PRIORITY CONCERN TO UNITED NATIONS IN AN ENLIGHTENED AND SOPHISTICATED WAY”. (MR. KOFI A. ANNAN, SECRETARY GENERAL, UNITED NATIONS).

“TME PRESENTS A HOLISTIC APPROACH TO THE PROBLEMS OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY”. (DR. RONALD S. McCOY, PRESIDENT IPPNW AND MEMBER CANBERRA COMMISSION).

“IMMENSELY THOUGHT-PROVOKING BOOK”. (POLITICS INDIA, AUGUST 1998).

“DRAWS A ROAD MAP TO A N-WEAPONS-FREE WORLD. MAKES PEACE SEEM ALMOST ACHIEVABLE”. (INDIA TODAY, OCTOBER 26, 1998).

“FASCINATINGLY DETAILED BLUEPRINT FOR A NUCLEAR-WEAPONS-FREE WORLD”. (REVIEWED BY HORST RUTSCH IN UNITED NATIONS CHRONICLE NO.3, 1998).

“…LAYS OUT AN AMBITIOUS AGENDA FOR GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY”. (KHALEEJ TIMES, DECEMBER 5, 1998).

“I LOVED, IN PARTICULAR, YOUR EPILOGUE FOR THE SHEER ART OF ITS PRESENTATION”. (PADMASHREE PROFESSOR V. VENKATACHALAM, CHAIRMAN, INDIAN COUNCIL OF PHILOSOPHICAL RESEARCH).

“SAIGHAL’S OPUS STANDS OUT…OWING TO THE WAY IN WHICH HE HAS TIED UP VARIOUS FACETS”. (ECONOMIC TIMES, JUNE 13, 1999).

“VINOD SAIGHAL’S CAREFULLY THOROUGH AND METICULOUSLY ARTICULATED PROJECT DESERVES SERIOUS ATTENTION”. (DR. KARAN SINGH, THE BOOK REVIEW, MAY 2000 / 9)

“THE HUMILITY OF SAIGHAL’S HUMANISM THAT IS EVIDENT THROUGHOUT HIS ARGUMENT MAKES HIS BOOK AN ADMIRABLE CONTRIBUTION TO THE CURRENT DEBATE ON GLOBAL STABILITY”. (NETWORK, THE SCIENTIFIC AND MEDICAL NETWORK REVIEW, SCOTLAND – No. 70, AUGUST 1999).

"YOUR BOOK, 'THIRD MILLENNIUM EQUIPOISE', IS ONE OF THE MOST FASCINATING BOOKS I HAVE EVER READ. THIS IS A BOOK THAT ALL PRESENT WORLD LEADERS AND THOSE WHO CARE ABOUT THE FUTURE OF PLANET EARTH SHOULD READ". (DR. EDWARD J. WILSON, PRESIDENT, INTERNATIONAL CHILDREN'S COMMUNITY; PRESIDENT KWANEES INTERNATIONAL).

ORIGINAL, UNIQUE AND VERY INTERESTING VISION ABOUT THE PROBLEM. (THIERRY MEYSSAN, RESEAU VOLTAIRE / AXIS FOR PEACE.)


The Head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Dr. R.K. Pachauri has agreed to forward my book, Third Millennium Equipoise to all his co-panelists as they would be looking into the remedial measures in the next report of the IPCC. An international seminar was held in the IIC, New Delhi in November 1998 on "EcoRevival of the Planet", based on the chapter of the same title in the book. I was the keynote speaker at the opening plenary session. Subsequently, Dr. Manmohan Singh advised the Rajiv Gandhi Foundation to hold a global seminar on the agenda given out in the book for global governance patterns. At the bottom of this mail you will find the comments of some of the best minds and the most eminent persons who have read TME.
In the light of the above may I request you to please bring it to the notice of all those seriously concerned with the dark clouds looming on the planetary horizon. They will find valuable insights for solutions to the existential problems confronting humanity and most, if not all, life forms on Earth.

Kind regards
Vinod Saighal

CHINA, TIBET, INDIA: STATUS QUO OR REAPPRAISAL

Chanakya the master of statecraft in ancient India practiced his art in and around the subcontinent. His art has not flourished all that well in India the land of his birth in the decades following Independence. Before we get down to understanding as to how Hu Jintao might yet again have outsmarted his counterparts in New Delhi it would be worth reproducing relevant excerpts from the book Global Security Paradoxes: 2000-2020 with special reference to the chapter “China, Tibet, India: Status Quo or Reappraisal?”

-After establishment of Chinese unity through the bloody route, the Chinese leaders understood, more comprehensively than anyone else, that power, in the ultimate analysis, did flow from the barrel of a gun. Having understood the currency of power they quickly went on to occupy Tibet while India was embroiled in Kashmir. Indian leaders were not able to grasp the global reality of that period. They tried to rebuild India on the platform of idealism. They made way for the Chinese in Tibet. They have been making way for the Chinese ever since.

Militarisation of any region takes place on account of perceived military threats to that region. In the second half of the twentieth century the Chinese rapidly militarized Tibet to consolidate their grip on the conquered territory. In addition to the internal unrest caused by the occupation they might have had misgivings regarding the intentions of India and/or the USA. Mention is made of only these two countries because no other nation or community of nations had, or would be likely to have in the foreseeable future, the direct interest or the military wherewithal to mount any credible challenge to continued Chinese occupation of Tibet. Today the world at large and certainly USA and India are reconciled to the Chinese presence in Tibet. The misgivings that China may have entertained in the twentieth century – if at all – of being militarily challenged in Tibet cannot obtain at the dawn of the twenty-first century. Therefore, since no country seriously questions the status quo, China can safely undertake the demilitarization of the Tibetan Plateau and the loosening of its harsh grip on the Tibetan people without any qualms. The perceived raison d’etre for the militarisation of Tibet having disappeared altogether in the new millennium makes it possible for the Chinese to arrive at an accommodation with the Dalai Lama and undertake demilitarization without a backward glance.

Today, the view from Beijing on the Tibetan issue would be that everything is moving along better than expected. From the Chinese standpoint it is a dead issue. Washington and the European capitals, they feel, keep the issue alive merely to embarrass China. In the Chinese perception, as far as the West is concerned economics will, hereafter, propel geopolitics. Hence, if geo-economics is what matters China is exceptionally well placed – at least for the time being. The other power that has any locus standi is India. As Beijing sees it, India does not have the stomach to question China’s policy in Tibet.

For several decades India was a little more than a bit player vis-à-vis China in Central or South East Asia or for that matter anywhere else, with some exceptions. Therefore, it really did not have many options regarding Tibet. Not only did it supinely accept Chinese outrages in Tibet, linked to developments that threatened the security of India, it curtailed severely the options that could have been exercised by the Dalai Lama to enlarge the Tibetan question. It needs to be restated here that India did not advocate the challenging of China’s position in Tibet in the last century, nor does it wish to do so now, unless China by its actions forces India and the rest of the world to throw open the whole question of the occupation of Tibet. To obviate such a situation the obvious course for China would be to settle the boundary dispute with India and meet the very reasonable minimum demands of the Dalai Lama. (Emphasis added)

China has sat on the question of autonomy for Tibetans and the boundary dispute with India for several decades. It may not be prudent for it to prolong these issues in the fashion that it did before. Dramatic changes could take place that might not be in China’s interest if it continues to drag its feet from a position of near-absolute unassailability, to the extent that the world had practically reconciled itself to the Chinese position, primarily because the prime contenders, India and the Dalai Lama, were not willing to challenge it or do anything about it.

The moment the twentieth century mindset is shed, as being totally inadequate, the realization dawns that the simple issue of the restoration of the Dalai Lama has assumed such extraordinary military dimensions that one is hard put to find any parallel in recent times. The nature of the military build up in Tibet is just not commensurate to the challenge that the Dalai Lama poses. How on earth can a handful of followers of an itinerant monk militarily challenge the might of the Peoples’ Republic of China? The very notion is absurd. Whichever way they look at the problem the military dimension should not enter into the reckoning unless the Chinese wish to use Tibet as a launch pad for aggression against India at some future date. That assumption too becomes difficult to comprehend in the case of Tibet. In the eyes of the Government of India, except for not insurmountable differences on the boundary issue, the Tibetan question has been settled once and for all. The Dalai Lama has not advocated an armed uprising and nor would the Indian government countenance such action from Indian soil. Hence, China is very comfortably placed vis-à-vis Tibet at the dawn of the twenty-first century. By not demilitarizing Tibet it forces India to militarise the eastern Himalayas. Should over-militarisation again erupt into a major conflagration the ‘settled’ Tibetan question would automatically stand re-opened, regardless of the outcome of the struggle. The rest of the world acquiesced in the Chinese conquest of Tibet in the 1950s because India did so. Had India challenged the usurpation, the world, without doubt, would have sided with India at that time. China should remain eternally grateful to India for not only serving Tibet to it on a platter, but for compounding the Himalayan blunder by then going on to champion that country’s case before the rest of the world, in the difficult years following the communist takeover. Thereafter, India maintained a stoic silence while the genocide in Tibet proceeded apace. Hence, from a geopolitical standpoint it is vital to China’s long-term interests to demilitarize Tibet with concomitant demilitarization of the eastern Himalayas on the part of India.

Chinese leaders have invariably taken a long-term view of China’s security since the communist takeover. Even in the turbulent early stages when the communist regime was threatened from various directions and faced large-scale internal unrest on account of collectivization they did not hesitate to challenge the might of USA in Korea. This was in spite of the fact that the USA possessed atomic weapons and the Chinese did not. They were also aware that the USA had demonstrated its ability to use atomic weapons in the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Having conquered Tibet, unopposed by India, they would not only have readily accepted the boundary indicated by India, but might have even agreed to a forward Indian presence beyond its boundaries for a given period had India adopted an uncompromising attitude in the early turbulent period of China’s consolidation. Unfortunately for the Tibetans and the world at large the leaders of the country south of the Himalayas displayed a lack of geo-political realism.

Post–1962 it was difficult for Nehru’s successors to undo the initial blunders of that great statesman, whose idealism, in this particular case, was wholly misplaced. The country had to live with the initial mistake till it was able to show some spine in the closing years of the 20th century. By that time its economic position had started improving and it was able to declare itself a nuclear power after the Pokhran II tests of 1998. The latter could have been a feather in the cap of another tall leader of the country had Mr. Vajpayee not then gone on to compound the monumental error of the Nehruvian period on his visit to China as prime minister in 2003. Pandit Nehru was naïve. India had just become independent. He was experimenting with non-alignment. He was hoping to co-opt China into the same fold. After full 50 years there was absolutely no excuse for Mr. Vajpayee and his team of strategic advisers to compound the original sin – for it was nothing less than a sin – by making the statement in China that India considered Tibet a part of that country. The Chinese strategic community must have been stunned by India throwing away its last trump card in such cavalier fashion. Vajpayee’s successors went and repeated the assurance, thereby leaving themselves no escape route for a rainy day. No wonder the Chinese in the final declaration after the Hu Jintao visit said repeatedly that they were happy to note that India accepted Tibet as a part of China. Put in another way they were happy to note that it was India itself that had further undermined the Dalai Lama’s position and the cause of Tibetan autonomy; the question of independence had been abandoned much earlier. At this stage it is worth examining the consequences of the ineptitude of India’s leaders with regard to the countries’ long-term strategic interest.

First of all by reiterating that Tibet is unquestionably a part of China it gives the Chinese, or rather confers upon them, the legal right to question the boundary with India as well as Bhutan. What is more, it confers similar rights on their successors. When the Chinese occupied Tibet they would have been relieved to have negotiated a treaty with India on the autonomous status of Tibet had this country opposed their occupation of Tibet tooth and nail. In those earlier years, in fact for several decades thereafter, the Chinese were not really interested in occupying more Indian territory after 1962. They kept - and continue to keep – the boundary question alive so that Indian leaders never question China’s occupation of Tibet or its activities in Tibet, which include the marginalisation and genocide of Tibetans and the ecological devastation of Tibet.

From the time of Indira Gandhi’s declaration of Emergency and more so after her demise Indian leaders have gotten into the groove of sacrificing the national interest in the internal governance of the country. The same tendency is reasserting itself in external relations as well. There is a strange phenomenon operating in this country whereby national leaders – and this includes military chiefs as well – get carried away on their visits to foreign countries, especially the USA and China. The charm offensive and the encomiums showered upon them by their hosts evidently work wonders. Almost invariably they end up giving much more than they get in return. Moreover, there is a tendency amongst these leaders to shine personally as great statesman on the world stage at the cost of the long-term interest of the country. The same tendency manifests itself in other fields as well.

Of course it is possible to put an altogether different construction on the attitude and actions of the Indian leaders dealing with China since Independence. China’s history has been one of aggressiveness with its neighbours. India’s historical experience has been just the opposite. Chinese leaders are the product of China’s past, just as India’s leaders are the product of India’s past. The latter’s worldview would, in any case, have carried a pacific strain. Consciously or subconsciously it would have been reinforced by the passage of Mahatma Gandhi on the Indian stage in the first half of the 20th Century. No Indian leader of stature has been able to abjure Gandhi’s philosophy, at least not publicly. The influence on the psyche of the people of India as a whole goes much deeper. With this background it would not be wrong to suppose that Indian leaders gave up several negotiating advantages in the belief that India’s and, more importantly, Asia’s long-term interest could only be served by complete harmonization of India-China relations. Most Indians still hold that view, the Chinese occupation of Tibet and the 1962 war notwithstanding. It is not in China’s interest, and certainly not in the interest of Asia and the world that India be forced by Chinese intransigence to abandon its historical perspective and faith in pacifism as an instrument of state policy. It was in this spirit that Nehru went to Bandung as the leading votary of Panchsheel. It would indeed be sad if Chinese leaders in the 21st Century were to take India’s lack of aggressive posturing as a sign of weakness carried over from the previous century.

In the light of what has been stated above China, in its own long-term interest, having been assured of India’s acceptance of Tibet as a part of China, should commence the phased demilitarization of the Tibet Autonomous Region and permit the return of the Dalai Lama on the lines of the very modest proposals put forward by him. Failure to do so would automatically, in the not too distant future, reopen the entire Tibetan question. What is more, it would force India to militarize its borders with China far more meaningfully than at present. Militarization creates its own logic – mostly tragic. China’s demilitarization of Tibet has now become an ineluctable ecological imperative as well. The sooner China gets going on this long delayed step the better it would be for Sino-Indian relations and for peace and harmony in Asia.

The world has been so inured to the China, Tibet, India equation of the previous century that it failed to take into account the importance of perhaps one of the most significant developments of recent years as it moved into the new century. The epoch-making event that needs to be emblazoned across all points of the horizon is that in spite of the merciless repression visited upon the fragile Tibetan nation – fragile in numbers and fragile in its ecology – since the Chinese invaded Tibet the Dalai Lama has remained steadfast in his belief in non-violence. Any other leader, recoiling in horror at the magnitude of the devastation wrought on Tibet and its people, would long ago have changed course; in the manner of so many insurgent and terrorist organizations that have sprung up all over the world to cause a veritable nightmare for the well-being of so many nations. The Dalai Lama stood rock-like in his belief in ahimsa as propounded by the Buddha and Mahavira several millennia ago and as practiced by Mahatma Gandhi in the 20th century when challenging the might of the greatest empire of that age. The Dalai Lama’s steadfastness becomes doubly commendable in the face of the bitter opposition by a large portion of the Tibetan youth who do not see any hope for salvation – for their country or people – at the other end of the road taken by their spiritual leader, no matter how much they might revere him personally. This self-sacrifice and steadfastness of the Tibetan people to uphold the values they cherish, in the face of prolonged inhuman repression, has to be seen in contrast to the violence and suicide bombings erupting elsewhere in the world in the face of much lesser wrongs, imagined or real, perpetrated against oppressed people. Today it is perhaps the only experiment of its type on a large enough scale that the world is aware of. It must not be allowed to fail. More, so for the sake of humanity at large than just the Tibetan people. The whole world has an immense stake in seeing the Dalai Lama’s experiment succeed. The stakes are simply too enormous for humankind in the midst of the turmoil that has now engulfed the world. The spiritual leader of Tibet stands as a beacon for people everywhere. A satisfactory outcome of his struggle will renew humanity’s faith in itself in a world rent asunder by so many hatreds and divisions.

New Delhi
December 7, 2006
© Vinod Saighal

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Blueprint For Preventing Iraq’s Descent Into Chaos


Present day Iraq was a British construct after the fall of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War II. In less than a century after its formation the British along with their American allies are in the forefront for the deconstruction of Iraq. The trifurcation of Iraq, should it come about, will not be very different from the three original Ottoman provinces that were amalgamated in 1922 and placed under a Hashemite King. While Iraq itself may have been unified comparatively recently by the British, Baghdad, its capital, has a much longer history that has been woven into the myths and legends of the Middle East for over a millennium. In fact, no other city of the Arab world embodies so distinctly the Arabian flavour than Baghdad. From AD 786-809, under fabled Haroon al-Rashid - who established relations with China’s Tang Dynasty and the emperor Charlemagne - Baghdad gave the world astronomy, alchemy, hydraulics, diplomacy, fiscal administration and the postal service. Up to the early 12th century it remained the most important intellectual center in the world. Baghdad had been under siege by the Assyrians and later by Cyrus the Great from Persia. However, it was only in 1258 that Baghdad was sacked for the first time by the Mongols riding under the command of Hulagu, the grandson of Genghis Khan. Legend has it that he erected a pyramid of 700,000 skulls out of his victims. In 1401, another foreign invader, the Turco-Mongol Tamerlane ("Timur the Lame"), devastated Baghdad yet again. Then for six centuries Baghdad managed to survive relatively peacefully till the “shock and awe” visited upon its inhabitants by the 2003 invasion of the Anglo-American combine.
In the most recent invasion a figure of over half a million deaths is already being mentioned for the Iraqis since the March 2003 invasion. This figure could go up considerably if the deaths of young children caused due to malnutrition and lack of medicines were to be taken into account since the 1991 invasion of Iraq. In the latter case one or two million deaths had been reported. During the shock and awe bombing of Baghdad and other Iraqi cities, most notably Fallujah, Depleted Uranium (DU) was freely used. The use of DU could lead to very large number of casualties for the coming generations exposed to it either directly or indirectly. That is not all. The manner in which Iraq is sought to be vacated by the occupying forces could lead to further sectarian killings on a much larger scale than is presently the case. Iraq and the Iraqis have suffered enough. Surely, a way can be found to prevent Iraq from descending into a condition of semi-permanent chaos. In the ensuing paragraphs a plan of action for preventing a cataclysmic break up of Iraq is spelled out.

The Action Plan

The Action Plan comprises three distinct components as under:
- Status of the city of Baghdad
- Restructuring Iraqi Armed Forces
- Functioning of the Federal Structure
Each of these aspects is amplified below.

The Status Of The City Of Baghdad

The key to the stabilization of Iraq is the stabilization of the city of Baghdad; the key to the re-development of Iraq is the redevelopment of Baghdad.
First the outline plan:
- Baghdad to be declared a separate city-state.
- Security of Baghdad
- Law and order in Baghdad
- Administering Baghdad city-state
- Infrastructure development of Baghdad
- Restoring Civic Services in Baghdad
- Turning Baghdad into the cultural and education center of the Arab World.

Baghdad to be Declared Separate City-State

Baghdad should be declared a separate city-state with a clearly delineated perimeter. Its status could be akin to the Vatican Status in concert with the pattern of administration followed for Chandigarh, the city design by the French architect, Le Corbusier in the early 1950s. After the trifurcation of Punjab shortly after the Independence of India, both the States of Punjab and Haryana laid claim to Chandigarh as the capital of their respective states. Without going into details the present status of Chandigarh is that it is centrally administered as a Union Territory with both the Punjab and Haryana state governments locating their governing complexes in the city. As of now the model functions satisfactorily with the people of Chandigarh happy to be administered under a central government dispensation. Neither Punjab nor Haryana have had any difficulty in carrying out the governing functions of their respective states from Chandigarh.

Security of Baghdad

The security of Baghdad should be handed over for an initial ten-year period to a military force provided by the Egyptian government. The Government of Egypt would designate an Egyptian Army Corps for exclusive deployment in the city of Baghdad. To cater for expenses associated with the task Egypt would be paid US $ 2 billion per annum for all expenses related to the security functions performed by the Corps in Baghdad. Every two years a review could be undertaken for assessing the operating expenses involved and the amount augmented if necessary. Similarly, the Corps could be beefed up by the Egyptian Government based on ground conditions. Payment to the latter would initially be dispensed by the US government.
The Corps Commander, whose credentials would be vetted by the US and the Iraq government would be given total freedom to restore law and order for the first two years. The Egyptian Corps would function in a manner similar to the SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement) that the US government negotiates for its troops deployed on overseas duties.
The Egyptian Corps Commander would be supervised by a Supervisory Committee comprising designated representatives from the following: The US ambassador in Iraq; Head of the UK Forces in Iraq; Representative of the Iraqi Government; Representative of the UN Secretary General; Representative of the World Health Organisation. Under clear guidelines framed by the Supervisory Council the Egyptian Force Commander would have a free hand to restore normalcy in Baghdad. For carrying out this task he could impose martial law in designated segments of the city for given periods of time in order to rid the city of weapons of all types held by individuals, militias or organizations operating outside the law or against the rules for holding or carrying of weapons promulgated by the Egyptian Force Commander. The Egyptian Forces deployed for the purpose would have the freedom to launch any type of operations for ridding the city of clandestine weapons or individuals or groupings attempting to take the law into their own hands. For security and restoration of law and order in Baghdad the Egyptian Force would be the sole force deployed for the purpose. The Iraqi Army would be based in camps situated outside the periphery of the city in designated areas. The Army Headquarters would remain in Baghdad. The US Army would be responsible for providing security cordon around the periphery of Baghdad city-state and for manning all entry and exit points along designated routes. All entities, including the US Government locations, the Iraq Government complexes, foreign embassies, Iraq armed forces headquarters and the like would be permitted to deploy security elements for protection of their respective complexes in situ as well as for protection of VVIPs, designated dignitaries or individuals. All other protection within the city would be provided by the Egyptian forces. The latter would have the authority to shoot or apprehend elements carrying weapons or causing disorder. All militias would be given notice by the Egyptian force commander to exit the capital within a given time frame, after which they would be liable to be summarily apprehended and incarcerated or executed. Zero tolerance in this regard would be the order of the day. In executing his task the Egyptian force commander will not be hampered by any of the other entities holding power in Iraq.

Maintenance of Law and Order & Administration in Baghdad City-State

Security and day-to-day law and order are complementary functions. To begin with security as well as law and order would be handled by the Egyptian forces. They would take help from the existing police forces. Suspect elements would be weeded out and replaced by carefully selected personnel. The local police could be supplemented by the military police personnel of both the US and Egyptian forces. Once a semblance of security for the citizens of Baghdad has been ensured the strengthened local police, augmented by carefully selected fresh inductees, would gradually assume routine law and order functions. Stringent selection procedures would be established for recruiting local magistrates, superior judiciary for the city-state and other administrative elements. All persons selected would remain secular and function as per international norms prevalent in well-established democracies. Where necessary civil servants and magistrates could be hired internationally for fixed tenures with Baghdadi understudies. Gradually the citizens of Baghdad would assume all responsibilities for self-governance, including local elections under neutral supervisory authorities. Here again, persons showing signs of sectarianism would be excluded.
For the first three years the costs of running the administration of Baghdad would be borne by the Central government and international donors. Thereafter, as trade, commerce and services pick up local taxes would be levied till the time Baghdad becomes financially self-sustaining.

Infrastructure Development & Restoring Civic Services in Baghdad

Going by the size of the population affected, the people of Baghdad have suffered the most since the March 2003 invasion of Iraq. For the average Iraqi living conditions, which were appalling in the earlier stages have remained abysmal in spite of the billions of dollars that have been sunk in. To put it mildly the money was misspent. Along with the stabilization of the security situation in the city the immediate priorities would be: restoration of electricity, water supplies and health and hygiene. Other development projects would be taken up for turning the city into a modern metropolis with first-rate transportation. International tenders could be floated under the aegis of a neutral body with impeccable credentials. Many of these services could be built on BOT (Build, Operate, Transfer) basis. They would provide employment to local Iraqis from the city. Middle class and wealthy Iraqis who have moved out to other countries would be invited back to help in the re-building and re-vitalization of the Baghdad city-state, which, in less than ten years could become one of the finest cities of the Middle East - a modern day version of the fabled dream city of the great Caliph Haroun-Al-Rashid.

Turning Baghdad into the Cultural & Education Centre of the Arab World

Universities and entities from around the world would be invited to set up modern educational, cultural and recreational facilities. Initially these would be developed for the Baghdadis. Later on they would be thrown open to all Iraqis and students selected from the rest of the Arab World. It would be the endeavour of all concerned to ensure that the education provided remains modern and secular. Friendly governments could also chip in to set up high tech facilities in the city. At the end of the day the aim would be to develop Baghdad into the most admired and vibrant capital in the Arab World.

Restructuring Iraqi Armed Forces

The broad outlines for restructuring of the Iraqi Armed Forces include, inter alia:
- The army to be divided into three commands: The Southern Command comprising Shiite divisions formed into one or two corps; Central Command comprising Sunni troops for the Sunni dominated central region; The Northern Command for deployment exclusively in the Kurdish region consisting of Kurdish troops.
- Simultaneously a composite command could be envisaged of carefully selected troops from all denominations. After suitable training they would become the nucleus of specialist units.
-The army headquarters located in Baghdad would comprise senior officers and personnel selected for their national and secular outlook and proven competence.
-In the first phase the three Commands would be responsible for security in their respective geographic commands. They would also be responsible for guarding the borders of Iraq in their designated sectors.
- Academies and officers’ training schools would be set up for joint training in facilities set up in Baghdad. All officers selected for training, basic as well as advanced, would be carefully vetted.
-Training facilities for non-commissioned officers and other ranks would be set up under respective regional commands.
- Medical, nursing and other specialized services would operate directly under Army headquarters and allocated to commands on as required basis.
Other details for professionalising the army have not been included in this short paper. These can be spelt out a later stage.


Functioning Of The Federal Structure


The broad parameters of the proposed trifurcation of Iraq along federal lines have been discussed in various forums. Much of the mayhem has resulted from irresoluteness that has crept in because of the vacillation in Washington, much of it brought about due to the run up to the November 2006 elections in the USA. Now that these are behind them, both parties – Republicans and Democrats - can get together purposefully to move forward to retrieve the situation in Iraq. There can hardly be two opinions at this point in time that the US policies in Iraq have generally failed. However, notwithstanding the many wrong turns that were taken earlier on, the US Army in Iraq is not an army that has been defeated or severely mauled. When a foreign country is invaded the casualties are expected to run into the tens of thousands in the first phase of capture itself. The American Army was lucky. Iraq was not seriously contested. Therefore, some years down the line a few thousand US casualties do not represent a critical situation from the military point of view. The greater problem is the demoralization resulting from the wrangling in Washington – irrespective of whether it is justified or not. The moment a clear, unmistakable plan of action is decided in Washington and conveyed to Iraq and the world the fog of uncertainty would lift and a situation considered hopeless to many would reveal facets that indicate brighter possibilities for stabilizing the situation.
One possibility would be to go along with the practically non-functioning present dispensation and improve its functioning by quelling sectarian conflict in Baghdad after declaring it a city-state and thereafter bringing about normalization by curtailing sectarian strife, and then spreading it outward in concentric circles. With persistence and clear enunciation of intent, regardless of opposition from various sectarian and extra-territorial interests in the region, a degree of normalization would automatically ensue. The present state of uncertainty would be dispelled after the plan, so adopted, is given bi-partisan support in Washington.
Before going into other aspects there has to be a consensus in Washington that the type of re-construction projects entrusted to firms like Halliburton would be a closed chapter. Hereafter, all funds allocated for Iraq would have to be overseen by a respected oversight committee comprising members from both parties. The reconstruction activity would require to be monitored all the way down the line to the execution of the projects on the ground – in good condition and without cost and time overruns. Half the unrest in Iraq and the anti-American feeling stems from mismanaged projects, diversion of funds and not meeting expectations made with great fanfare in Washington and Baghdad after an easy victory.
It should not be too difficult to ensure pipeline security and greater output from production sites once the revised plans are announced and implementation undertaken with quiet purposefulness and professionalism. A development tax should be levied at the wellhead on each barrel of oil. Its utilization and distribution between the federating units has to be clearly spelled out. Here again, if funds are properly utilized and results begin to appear on the ground sectarian strife would automatically come down and the animus against the US troops gradually simmer down.
The American government has to firmly indicate its stance on the question of US troops in Iraq. Naturally several factors having a regional bearing would impinge on a decision of this nature. A suggested framework could be as under:
- In the longer-term the US is committed to a complete withdrawal once normalcy is restored. A caveat relating to the Kurdish region could be put in.
- It would withdraw approximately 50,000 military personnel within 18 months of the revised plan taking off on the ground.
- Thereafter, further reduction every six months to a year depending upon the competence achieved by the restructured Iraq Army.
It is important that the revised plan is circulated in-house in the Pentagon, the State Department, the Defence Department (the Pentagon should be free to give its own comments that may be at variance), the CIA and other selected committees and entities. Once a general consensus is obtained the plan should be communicated to all concerned and faithfully executed down the line. The sniping in Washington should then come down, if not cease.

Concluding Remarks

The USA has messed up things in Iraq. It was a wrong decision that was taken for all the wrong reasons. There was a large element of deception that has eroded the credibility of the US Administration – internally among the American people and externally among the allies. The start point for retrieving the situation in Iraq is to acknowledge the mistakes and then forget the past. Witch hunting and recrimination will not serve any purpose. Lessons would have been learned in Washington to ensure that such deception is never again allowed to influence major commitment of US forces abroad. The situation in Iraq is certainly grim. It is, however, far from being irretrievable. Fresh initiatives along the lines indicated, with sensible modifications and mid-term corrections, whenever required, should allow Iraq to get up on its feet again
.


New Delhi
November 17, 2006
© Vinod Saighal

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The missive sent on behalf of MRGG to the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court may please be noted. .
Vinod Saighal (Convenor, MRGG)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

31st October 2006
Hearing on Petitions on Ninth Schedule

   On the very day that I had delivered the talk on ‘Why the War on Global Terrorism is Not Being Won’ I had mailed the text to you along with letter dated August 2, 2006. Several high-ranking personages and constitutional experts had attended the talk. It was sent post-haste because part of it touched upon certain aspects of subversion of the Constitution that might gradually be ushered in. The talk has since been published in the United Service Institution of India Journal, July-September 2006. Prior to that views on the subject under review had been submitted in my capacity as Convener MRGG (Movement for Restoration of Good Government) as per details given below:

  *  Reservations in IIsT and IIsM vide letter dated 8 April 2006.
  *  Increasing Tendency of Parliamentarians to Routinely Nullify Court Decisions vide letter dated 6       June 2006.
  *  Restoring A Modicum of Habitability to Delhi vide letter dated 19 September 2006.

   The legislative competence of Parliament to pass laws in order to circumvent or preempt judicial review by taking the Ninth Schedule route to make them immune to adjudication would not only destroy the basic structure of the Constitution, it would imperil the very foundations of democracy in India. Without judicial review of legislation that could affect fundamental rights or the basic character of the Constitution, the country could easily take a wrong turn, endangering its fragile democracy, which has taken root against overwhelming odds. In India, after nearly 60 years of democratic functioning the danger of military dictatorship is virtually non-existent. What is more worrisome today is the erosion of democratic norms at the hands of politico-criminal mafias – some with extra-territorial linkages - that are raising their ugly heads in state after another. Vested interests, who by their very existence and functioning undermine good governance, are attaining positions of dominance at the Centre as well. At times like these the over-watch functions of higher judiciary become doubly important for safeguarding the sanctity of the country’s democracy.

   On an earlier occasion the reducto ad absurdum argument had been cited in a letter sent to you. To take the argument further, suppose the Members of Parliament in their wisdom pass a law to the effect that no member of parliament could be prosecuted for any criminal act until approval were to be taken for such prosecution from a parliamentary body constituted for the purpose and concomitantly take the Ninth Schedule route to make the legislation immune to adjudication would it not spell the end of the rule of law in the country. Take another instance: should the MPs decide in the manner outlined above that the sums made available to them under the MPLAD scheme should henceforth amount to rupees 100 crores per MP would the judiciary remain idle spectators, regardless of the correctness of the exercise in legislative terms. Many other examples of a similar nature can be given. Under no circumstances can commonsense or rationality be allowed to suffer diminishment through legislative intemperance. Hence, the ineluctable imperative of judicial review.

   A long period of time has elapsed since the very first Constitutional amendment enacted in 1951 introduced the Ninth Schedule through Article 31 B. Much water has flowed down the Yamuna since then. Heed has to be taken from the example of other countries that have been attempting to put certain categories of legislation beyond judicial review. Recently, constitutional experts in democracies around the world, including in the USA, have expressed grave concern at the turn that the US democracy seems to be taking by putting, or attempting to put, certain categories of legislations beyond judicial review. Most non-partisan observers have opined that it could seriously undermine American democracy. By undermining judicial independence and judicial review of legislation several countries have opened the route to fascism and dictatorship of vested interests, even without a military takeover. Democracy in India will flounder if judicial review of legislation put in the Ninth Schedule is disallowed.

Hon’ble Chief Justice

Supreme Court,

Tilak Marg, New Delhi – 110001.

 

Copyright©2006 Vinod Saighal
site development and maintained by activa softech